WhoWins(tm) Best-of-7

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 GREATEST COMEBACK EVER
Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 ANNIHILATIONS
The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

RESOURCES
Societies, books, and other resources.

BEST-OF-7 FEATURES
Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

FAQ
Frequently-asked questions.

SEARCH RESULTS
Related search terms from popular search engines.

PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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HISTORICAL SERIES VICTORY PROBABILITIES (UP 3-GAMES-2)

Here's what has happened -- in both the series and the following game -- when an MLB/NBA/NHL team led a best-of-7 series 3 games to 2. "Site" means the site (H=home or V=road) where a team played Game 1: For example, the row in which sport=MLB, round=Finals, and site=V refers to MLB teams with a 3-games-2 MLB World Series lead, having played Game 1 on the road; for a second example, the row in which sport=NHL, round=Semis, and site=H refers to NHL teams with a 3-games-2 NHL Stanley Cup Semifinals-round lead, having played Game 1 at home. Theoretical series victory probability for series-leading team = .75 (based on theoretical game victory probabilities of .5). Table updated through Fall 2014.

sport round site Game 6 rec. series rec.
all all all 394-327 (.546) 575-146 (.798)
all all H 225-203 (.526) 361-67 (.843)
all all V 169-124 (.577) 214-79 (.730)
all Finals all 70-71 (.496) 106-35 (.752)
all Finals H 45-34 (.570) 68-11 (.861)
all Finals V 25-37 (.403) 38-24 (.613)
all Semis all 107-78 (.578) 148-37 (.800)
all Semis H 54-50 (.519) 88-16 (.846)
all Semis V 53-28 (.654) 60-21 (.741)
all Qtrs all 103-97 (.515) 166-34 (.830)
all Qtrs H 63-71 (.470) 114-20 (.851)
all Qtrs V 40-26 (.606) 52-14 (.788)
all Prelim all 114-81 (.585) 155-40 (.795)
all Prelim H 63-48 (.568) 91-20 (.820)
all Prelim V 51-33 (.607) 64-20 (.762)
MLB all all 45-52 (.464) 68-29 (.701)
MLB all H 25-21 (.543) 36-10 (.783)
MLB all V 20-31 (.392) 32-19 (.627)
MLB Finals all 24-37 (.393) 42-19 (.689)
MLB Finals H 14-13 (.519) 21-6 (.778)
MLB Finals V 10-24 (.294) 21-13 (.618)
MLB Semis all 21-15 (.583) 26-10 (.722)
MLB Semis H 11-8 (.579) 15-4 (.789)
MLB Semis V 10-7 (.588) 11-6 (.647)
NBA all all 153-119 (.563) 232-40 (.853)
NBA all H 89-83 (.517) 158-14 (.919)
NBA all V 64-36 (.640) 74-26 (.740)
NBA Finals all 25-18 (.581) 35-8 (.814)
NBA Finals H 15-11 (.577) 24-2 (.923)
NBA Finals V 10-7 (.588) 11-6 (.647)
NBA Semis all 41-33 (.554) 60-14 (.811)
NBA Semis H 22-23 (.489) 39-6 (.867)
NBA Semis V 19-10 (.655) 21-8 (.724)
NBA Qtrs all 54-49 (.524) 92-11 (.893)
NBA Qtrs H 35-38 (.479) 69-4 (.945)
NBA Qtrs V 19-11 (.633) 23-7 (.767)
NBA Prelim all 33-19 (.635) 45-7 (.865)
NBA Prelim H 17-11 (.607) 26-2 (.929)
NBA Prelim V 16-8 (.667) 19-5 (.792)
NHL all all 196-156 (.557) 275-77 (.781)
NHL all H 111-99 (.529) 167-43 (.795)
NHL all V 85-57 (.599) 108-34 (.761)
NHL Finals all 21-16 (.568) 29-8 (.784)
NHL Finals H 16-10 (.615) 23-3 (.885)
NHL Finals V 5-6 (.455) 6-5 (.545)
NHL Semis all 45-30 (.600) 62-13 (.827)
NHL Semis H 21-19 (.525) 34-6 (.850)
NHL Semis V 24-11 (.686) 28-7 (.800)
NHL Qtrs all 49-48 (.505) 74-23 (.763)
NHL Qtrs H 28-33 (.459) 45-16 (.738)
NHL Qtrs V 21-15 (.583) 29-7 (.806)
NHL Prelim all 81-62 (.566) 110-33 (.769)
NHL Prelim H 46-37 (.554) 65-18 (.783)
NHL Prelim V 35-25 (.583) 45-15 (.750)