WhoWins(tm) Best-of-7

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 GREATEST COMEBACK EVER
Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 ANNIHILATIONS
The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

RESOURCES
Societies, books, and other resources.

BEST-OF-7 FEATURES
Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

FAQ
Frequently-asked questions.

SEARCH RESULTS
Related search terms from popular search engines.

PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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HISTORICAL SERIES VICTORY PROBABILITIES (UP 3-GAMES-2)

Here's what has happened -- in both the series and the following game -- when an MLB/NBA/NHL team led a best-of-7 series 3 games to 2. "Site" means the site (H=home or V=road) where a team played Game 1: For example, the row in which sport=MLB, round=Finals, and site=V refers to MLB teams with a 3-games-2 MLB World Series lead, having played Game 1 on the road; for a second example, the row in which sport=NHL, round=Semis, and site=H refers to NHL teams with a 3-games-2 NHL Stanley Cup Semifinals-round lead, having played Game 1 at home. Theoretical series victory probability for series-leading team = .75 (based on theoretical game victory probabilities of .5). Table updated through Fall 2022.

sport round site Game 6 rec. series rec.
all all all 484-394 (.551) 699-179 (.796)
all all H 284-240 (.542) 441-83 (.842)
all all V 200-154 (.565) 258-96 (.729)
all Finals all 83-76 (.522) 121-38 (.761)
all Finals H 55-37 (.598) 78-14 (.848)
all Finals V 28-39 (.418) 43-24 (.642)
all Semis all 123-92 (.572) 170-45 (.791)
all Semis H 63-57 (.525) 100-20 (.833)
all Semis V 60-35 (.632) 70-25 (.737)
all Qtrs all 122-120 (.504) 199-43 (.822)
all Qtrs H 74-83 (.471) 132-25 (.841)
all Qtrs V 48-37 (.565) 67-18 (.788)
all Prelim all 156-106 (.595) 209-53 (.798)
all Prelim H 92-63 (.594) 131-24 (.845)
all Prelim V 64-43 (.598) 78-29 (.729)
MLB all all 53-59 (.473) 79-33 (.705)
MLB all H 32-24 (.571) 44-12 (.786)
MLB all V 21-35 (.375) 35-21 (.625)
MLB Finals all 27-40 (.403) 46-21 (.687)
MLB Finals H 16-15 (.516) 23-8 (.742)
MLB Finals V 11-25 (.306) 23-13 (.639)
MLB Semis all 26-19 (.578) 33-12 (.733)
MLB Semis H 16-9 (.640) 21-4 (.840)
MLB Semis V 10-10 (.500) 12-8 (.600)
NBA all all 190-145 (.567) 281-54 (.839)
NBA all H 118-98 (.546) 195-21 (.903)
NBA all V 72-47 (.605) 86-33 (.723)
NBA Finals all 30-19 (.612) 40-9 (.816)
NBA Finals H 19-12 (.613) 28-3 (.903)
NBA Finals V 11-7 (.611) 12-6 (.667)
NBA Semis all 46-37 (.554) 66-17 (.795)
NBA Semis H 25-25 (.500) 42-8 (.840)
NBA Semis V 21-12 (.636) 24-9 (.727)
NBA Qtrs all 63-60 (.512) 106-17 (.862)
NBA Qtrs H 41-45 (.477) 78-8 (.907)
NBA Qtrs V 22-15 (.595) 28-9 (.757)
NBA Prelim all 51-29 (.638) 69-11 (.863)
NBA Prelim H 33-16 (.673) 47-2 (.959)
NBA Prelim V 18-13 (.581) 22-9 (.710)
NHL all all 241-190 (.559) 339-92 (.787)
NHL all H 134-118 (.532) 202-50 (.802)
NHL all V 107-72 (.598) 137-42 (.765)
NHL Finals all 26-17 (.605) 35-8 (.814)
NHL Finals H 20-10 (.667) 27-3 (.900)
NHL Finals V 6-7 (.462) 8-5 (.615)
NHL Semis all 51-36 (.586) 71-16 (.816)
NHL Semis H 22-23 (.489) 37-8 (.822)
NHL Semis V 29-13 (.690) 34-8 (.810)
NHL Qtrs all 59-60 (.496) 93-26 (.782)
NHL Qtrs H 33-38 (.465) 54-17 (.761)
NHL Qtrs V 26-22 (.542) 39-9 (.813)
NHL Prelim all 105-77 (.577) 140-42 (.769)
NHL Prelim H 59-47 (.557) 84-22 (.792)
NHL Prelim V 46-30 (.605) 56-20 (.737)