WhoWins(tm) Best-of-7

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 GREATEST COMEBACK EVER
Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 ANNIHILATIONS
The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

RESOURCES
Societies, books, and other resources.

BEST-OF-7 FEATURES
Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

FAQ
Frequently-asked questions.

SEARCH RESULTS
Related search terms from popular search engines.

PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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HISTORICAL SERIES VICTORY PROBABILITIES (UP 2-GAMES-NIL)

Here's what has happened -- in both the series and the following game -- when an MLB/NBA/NHL team led a best-of-7 series 2 games to nil. "Site" means the site (H=home or V=road) where a team played Game 1: For example, the row in which sport=MLB, round=Finals, and site=V refers to MLB teams with a 2-games-nil MLB World Series lead, having played Game 1 on the road; for a second example, the row in which sport=NHL, round=Semis, and site=H refers to NHL teams with a 2-games-nil NHL Stanley Cup Semifinals-round lead, having played Game 1 at home. Theoretical series victory probability for series-leading team = .8125 (based on theoretical game victory probabilities of .5). Table updated through Fall 2007.

sport round site Game 3 rec. series rec.
all all all 263-289 (.476) 489-63 (.886)
all all H 202-237 (.460) 398-41 (.907)
all all V 61-52 (.540) 91-22 (.805)
all Finals all 60-61 (.496) 105-16 (.868)
all Finals H 41-52 (.441) 82-11 (.882)
all Finals V 19-9 (.679) 23-5 (.821)
all Semis all 70-77 (.476) 134-13 (.912)
all Semis H 50-61 (.450) 99-12 (.892)
all Semis V 20-16 (.556) 35-1 (.972)
all Qtrs all 88-92 (.489) 162-18 (.900)
all Qtrs H 74-78 (.487) 142-10 (.934)
all Qtrs V 14-14 (.500) 20-8 (.714)
all Prelim all 45-59 (.433) 88-16 (.846)
all Prelim H 37-46 (.446) 75-8 (.904)
all Prelim V 8-13 (.381) 13-8 (.619)
MLB all all 31-37 (.456) 55-13 (.809)
MLB all H 17-27 (.386) 34-10 (.773)
MLB all V 14-10 (.583) 21-3 (.875)
MLB Finals all 23-26 (.469) 39-10 (.796)
MLB Finals H 15-20 (.429) 28-7 (.800)
MLB Finals V 8-6 (.571) 11-3 (.786)
MLB Semis all 8-11 (.421) 16-3 (.842)
MLB Semis H 2-7 (.222) 6-3 (.667)
MLB Semis V 6-4 (.600) 10-0 (1.000)
NBA all all 83-121 (.407) 191-13 (.936)
NBA all H 69-111 (.383) 170-10 (.944)
NBA all V 14-10 (.583) 21-3 (.875)
NBA Finals all 12-17 (.414) 26-3 (.897)
NBA Finals H 10-16 (.385) 23-3 (.885)
NBA Finals V 2-1 (.667) 3-0 (1.000)
NBA Semis all 25-34 (.424) 56-3 (.949)
NBA Semis H 19-29 (.396) 45-3 (.938)
NBA Semis V 6-5 (.545) 11-0 (1.000)
NBA Qtrs all 36-54 (.400) 86-4 (.956)
NBA Qtrs H 30-51 (.370) 79-2 (.975)
NBA Qtrs V 6-3 (.667) 7-2 (.778)
NBA Prelim all 10-16 (.385) 23-3 (.885)
NBA Prelim H 10-15 (.400) 23-2 (.920)
NBA Prelim V 0-1 (.000) 0-1 (.000)
NHL all all 149-131 (.532) 243-37 (.868)
NHL all H 116-99 (.540) 194-21 (.902)
NHL all V 33-32 (.508) 49-16 (.754)
NHL Finals all 25-18 (.581) 40-3 (.930)
NHL Finals H 16-16 (.500) 31-1 (.969)
NHL Finals V 9-2 (.818) 9-2 (.818)
NHL Semis all 37-32 (.536) 62-7 (.899)
NHL Semis H 29-25 (.537) 48-6 (.889)
NHL Semis V 8-7 (.533) 14-1 (.933)
NHL Qtrs all 52-38 (.578) 76-14 (.844)
NHL Qtrs H 44-27 (.620) 63-8 (.887)
NHL Qtrs V 8-11 (.421) 13-6 (.684)
NHL Prelim all 35-43 (.449) 65-13 (.833)
NHL Prelim H 27-31 (.466) 52-6 (.897)
NHL Prelim V 8-12 (.400) 13-7 (.650)