WhoWins(tm) Best-of-7

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 GREATEST COMEBACK EVER
Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 ANNIHILATIONS
The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

RESOURCES
Societies, books, and other resources.

BEST-OF-7 FEATURES
Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

FAQ
Frequently-asked questions.

SEARCH RESULTS
Related search terms from popular search engines.

PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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HISTORICAL SERIES VICTORY PROBABILITIES (UP 2-GAMES-1)

Here's what has happened -- in both the series and the following game -- when an MLB/NBA/NHL team led a best-of-7 series 2 games to 1. "Site" means the site (H=home or V=road) where a team played Game 1: For example, the row in which sport=MLB, round=Finals, and site=V refers to MLB teams with a 2-games-1 MLB World Series lead, having played Game 1 on the road; for a second example, the row in which sport=NHL, round=Semis, and site=H refers to NHL teams with a 2-games-1 NHL Stanley Cup Semifinals-round lead, having played Game 1 at home. Theoretical series victory probability for series-leading team = .6875 (based on theoretical game victory probabilities of .5). Table updated through Fall 2019.

sport round site Game 4 rec. series rec.
all all all 512-539 (.487) 774-277 (.736)
all all H 310-340 (.477) 524-126 (.806)
all all V 202-199 (.504) 250-151 (.623)
all Finals all 100-99 (.503) 149-50 (.749)
all Finals H 62-65 (.488) 102-25 (.803)
all Finals V 38-34 (.528) 47-25 (.653)
all Semis all 128-133 (.490) 202-59 (.774)
all Semis H 73-83 (.468) 127-29 (.814)
all Semis V 55-50 (.524) 75-30 (.714)
all Qtrs all 140-158 (.470) 222-76 (.745)
all Qtrs H 89-100 (.471) 159-30 (.841)
all Qtrs V 51-58 (.468) 63-46 (.578)
all Prelim all 144-149 (.491) 201-92 (.686)
all Prelim H 86-92 (.483) 136-42 (.764)
all Prelim V 58-57 (.504) 65-50 (.565)
MLB all all 79-62 (.560) 100-41 (.709)
MLB all H 44-33 (.571) 58-19 (.753)
MLB all V 35-29 (.547) 42-22 (.656)
MLB Finals all 43-44 (.494) 59-28 (.678)
MLB Finals H 22-25 (.468) 33-14 (.702)
MLB Finals V 21-19 (.525) 26-14 (.650)
MLB Semis all 36-18 (.667) 41-13 (.759)
MLB Semis H 22-8 (.733) 25-5 (.833)
MLB Semis V 14-10 (.583) 16-8 (.667)
NBA all all 199-208 (.489) 324-83 (.796)
NBA all H 125-151 (.453) 243-33 (.880)
NBA all V 74-57 (.565) 81-50 (.618)
NBA Finals all 30-29 (.508) 48-11 (.814)
NBA Finals H 21-21 (.500) 36-6 (.857)
NBA Finals V 9-8 (.529) 12-5 (.706)
NBA Semis all 42-53 (.442) 74-21 (.779)
NBA Semis H 21-40 (.344) 50-11 (.820)
NBA Semis V 21-13 (.618) 24-10 (.706)
NBA Qtrs all 77-82 (.484) 129-30 (.811)
NBA Qtrs H 53-61 (.465) 104-10 (.912)
NBA Qtrs V 24-21 (.533) 25-20 (.556)
NBA Prelim all 50-44 (.532) 73-21 (.777)
NBA Prelim H 30-29 (.508) 53-6 (.898)
NBA Prelim V 20-15 (.571) 20-15 (.571)
NHL all all 234-269 (.465) 350-153 (.696)
NHL all H 141-156 (.475) 223-74 (.751)
NHL all V 93-113 (.451) 127-79 (.617)
NHL Finals all 27-26 (.509) 42-11 (.792)
NHL Finals H 19-19 (.500) 33-5 (.868)
NHL Finals V 8-7 (.533) 9-6 (.600)
NHL Semis all 50-62 (.446) 87-25 (.777)
NHL Semis H 30-35 (.462) 52-13 (.800)
NHL Semis V 20-27 (.426) 35-12 (.745)
NHL Qtrs all 63-76 (.453) 93-46 (.669)
NHL Qtrs H 36-39 (.480) 55-20 (.733)
NHL Qtrs V 27-37 (.422) 38-26 (.594)
NHL Prelim all 94-105 (.472) 128-71 (.643)
NHL Prelim H 56-63 (.471) 83-36 (.697)
NHL Prelim V 38-42 (.475) 45-35 (.563)