WhoWins(tm) Best-of-7

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 GREATEST COMEBACK EVER
Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 ANNIHILATIONS
The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

RESOURCES
Societies, books, and other resources.

BEST-OF-7 FEATURES
Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

FAQ
Frequently-asked questions.

SEARCH RESULTS
Related search terms from popular search engines.

PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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HISTORICAL SERIES VICTORY PROBABILITIES (UP 2-GAMES-1)

Here's what has happened -- in both the series and the following game -- when an MLB/NBA/NHL team led a best-of-7 series 2 games to 1. "Site" means the site (H=home or V=road) where a team played Game 1: For example, the row in which sport=MLB, round=Finals, and site=V refers to MLB teams with a 2-games-1 MLB World Series lead, having played Game 1 on the road; for a second example, the row in which sport=NHL, round=Semis, and site=H refers to NHL teams with a 2-games-1 NHL Stanley Cup Semifinals-round lead, having played Game 1 at home. Theoretical series victory probability for series-leading team = .6875 (based on theoretical game victory probabilities of .5). Table updated through Fall 2008.

sport round site Game 4 rec. series rec.
all all all 388-396 (.495) 586-198 (.747)
all all H 234-251 (.482) 397-88 (.819)
all all V 154-145 (.515) 189-110 (.632)
all Finals all 88-83 (.515) 133-38 (.778)
all Finals H 52-55 (.486) 90-17 (.841)
all Finals V 36-28 (.563) 43-21 (.672)
all Semis all 104-108 (.491) 164-48 (.774)
all Semis H 61-66 (.480) 105-22 (.827)
all Semis V 43-42 (.506) 59-26 (.694)
all Qtrs all 113-120 (.485) 175-58 (.751)
all Qtrs H 72-77 (.483) 125-24 (.839)
all Qtrs V 41-43 (.488) 50-34 (.595)
all Prelim all 83-85 (.494) 114-54 (.679)
all Prelim H 49-53 (.480) 77-25 (.755)
all Prelim V 34-32 (.515) 37-29 (.561)
MLB all all 63-52 (.548) 80-35 (.696)
MLB all H 32-28 (.533) 44-16 (.733)
MLB all V 31-24 (.564) 36-19 (.655)
MLB Finals all 38-39 (.494) 52-25 (.675)
MLB Finals H 17-23 (.425) 28-12 (.700)
MLB Finals V 21-16 (.568) 24-13 (.649)
MLB Semis all 25-13 (.658) 28-10 (.737)
MLB Semis H 15-5 (.750) 16-4 (.800)
MLB Semis V 10-8 (.556) 12-6 (.667)
NBA all all 148-145 (.505) 240-53 (.819)
NBA all H 97-110 (.469) 184-23 (.889)
NBA all V 51-35 (.593) 56-30 (.651)
NBA Finals all 25-25 (.500) 43-7 (.860)
NBA Finals H 17-19 (.472) 32-4 (.889)
NBA Finals V 8-6 (.571) 11-3 (.786)
NBA Semis all 36-43 (.456) 62-17 (.785)
NBA Semis H 20-31 (.392) 43-8 (.843)
NBA Semis V 16-12 (.571) 19-9 (.679)
NBA Qtrs all 65-63 (.508) 107-21 (.836)
NBA Qtrs H 44-50 (.468) 86-8 (.915)
NBA Qtrs V 21-13 (.618) 21-13 (.618)
NBA Prelim all 22-14 (.611) 28-8 (.778)
NBA Prelim H 16-10 (.615) 23-3 (.885)
NBA Prelim V 6-4 (.600) 5-5 (.500)
NHL all all 177-199 (.471) 266-110 (.707)
NHL all H 105-113 (.482) 169-49 (.775)
NHL all V 72-86 (.456) 97-61 (.614)
NHL Finals all 25-19 (.568) 38-6 (.864)
NHL Finals H 18-13 (.581) 30-1 (.968)
NHL Finals V 7-6 (.538) 8-5 (.615)
NHL Semis all 43-52 (.453) 74-21 (.779)
NHL Semis H 26-30 (.464) 46-10 (.821)
NHL Semis V 17-22 (.436) 28-11 (.718)
NHL Qtrs all 48-57 (.457) 68-37 (.648)
NHL Qtrs H 28-27 (.509) 39-16 (.709)
NHL Qtrs V 20-30 (.400) 29-21 (.580)
NHL Prelim all 61-71 (.462) 86-46 (.652)
NHL Prelim H 33-43 (.434) 54-22 (.711)
NHL Prelim V 28-28 (.500) 32-24 (.571)