WhoWins(tm) Best-of-7

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 GREATEST COMEBACK EVER
Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 ANNIHILATIONS
The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

RESOURCES
Societies, books, and other resources.

BEST-OF-7 FEATURES
Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

FAQ
Frequently-asked questions.

SEARCH RESULTS
Related search terms from popular search engines.

PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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HISTORICAL SERIES VICTORY PROBABILITIES (UP 2-GAMES-1)

Here's what has happened -- in both the series and the following game -- when an MLB/NBA/NHL team led a best-of-7 series 2 games to 1. "Site" means the site (H=home or V=road) where a team played Game 1: For example, the row in which sport=MLB, round=Finals, and site=V refers to MLB teams with a 2-games-1 MLB World Series lead, having played Game 1 on the road; for a second example, the row in which sport=NHL, round=Semis, and site=H refers to NHL teams with a 2-games-1 NHL Stanley Cup Semifinals-round lead, having played Game 1 at home. Theoretical series victory probability for series-leading team = .6875 (based on theoretical game victory probabilities of .5). Table updated through Fall 2020.

sport round site Game 4 rec. series rec.
all all all 532-545 (.494) 796-281 (.739)
all all H 324-343 (.486) 540-127 (.810)
all all V 208-202 (.507) 256-154 (.624)
all Finals all 102-100 (.505) 152-50 (.752)
all Finals H 64-66 (.492) 105-25 (.808)
all Finals V 38-34 (.528) 47-25 (.653)
all Semis all 133-133 (.500) 206-60 (.774)
all Semis H 75-83 (.475) 129-29 (.816)
all Semis V 58-50 (.537) 77-31 (.713)
all Qtrs all 146-159 (.479) 228-77 (.748)
all Qtrs H 93-100 (.482) 162-31 (.839)
all Qtrs V 53-59 (.473) 66-46 (.589)
all Prelim all 151-153 (.497) 210-94 (.691)
all Prelim H 92-94 (.495) 144-42 (.774)
all Prelim V 59-59 (.500) 66-52 (.559)
MLB all all 80-63 (.559) 101-42 (.706)
MLB all H 44-34 (.564) 59-19 (.756)
MLB all V 36-29 (.554) 42-23 (.646)
MLB Finals all 43-45 (.489) 60-28 (.682)
MLB Finals H 22-26 (.458) 34-14 (.708)
MLB Finals V 21-19 (.525) 26-14 (.650)
MLB Semis all 37-18 (.673) 41-14 (.745)
MLB Semis H 22-8 (.733) 25-5 (.833)
MLB Semis V 15-10 (.600) 16-9 (.640)
NBA all all 207-211 (.495) 333-85 (.797)
NBA all H 131-153 (.461) 250-34 (.880)
NBA all V 76-58 (.567) 83-51 (.619)
NBA Finals all 31-29 (.517) 49-11 (.817)
NBA Finals H 22-21 (.512) 37-6 (.860)
NBA Finals V 9-8 (.529) 12-5 (.706)
NBA Semis all 44-53 (.454) 76-21 (.784)
NBA Semis H 22-40 (.355) 51-11 (.823)
NBA Semis V 22-13 (.629) 25-10 (.714)
NBA Qtrs all 79-83 (.488) 131-31 (.809)
NBA Qtrs H 55-61 (.474) 105-11 (.905)
NBA Qtrs V 24-22 (.522) 26-20 (.565)
NBA Prelim all 53-46 (.535) 77-22 (.778)
NBA Prelim H 32-31 (.508) 57-6 (.905)
NBA Prelim V 21-15 (.583) 20-16 (.556)
NHL all all 245-271 (.475) 362-154 (.702)
NHL all H 149-156 (.489) 231-74 (.757)
NHL all V 96-115 (.455) 131-80 (.621)
NHL Finals all 28-26 (.519) 43-11 (.796)
NHL Finals H 20-19 (.513) 34-5 (.872)
NHL Finals V 8-7 (.533) 9-6 (.600)
NHL Semis all 52-62 (.456) 89-25 (.781)
NHL Semis H 31-35 (.470) 53-13 (.803)
NHL Semis V 21-27 (.438) 36-12 (.750)
NHL Qtrs all 67-76 (.469) 97-46 (.678)
NHL Qtrs H 38-39 (.494) 57-20 (.740)
NHL Qtrs V 29-37 (.439) 40-26 (.606)
NHL Prelim all 98-107 (.478) 133-72 (.649)
NHL Prelim H 60-63 (.488) 87-36 (.707)
NHL Prelim V 38-44 (.463) 46-36 (.561)