WhoWins(tm) Best-of-7

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 GREATEST COMEBACK EVER
Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 ANNIHILATIONS
The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

RESOURCES
Societies, books, and other resources.

BEST-OF-7 FEATURES
Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

FAQ
Frequently-asked questions.

SEARCH RESULTS
Related search terms from popular search engines.

PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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HISTORICAL SERIES VICTORY PROBABILITIES (UP 2-GAMES-1)

Here's what has happened -- in both the series and the following game -- when an MLB/NBA/NHL team led a best-of-7 series 2 games to 1. "Site" means the site (H=home or V=road) where a team played Game 1: For example, the row in which sport=MLB, round=Finals, and site=V refers to MLB teams with a 2-games-1 MLB World Series lead, having played Game 1 on the road; for a second example, the row in which sport=NHL, round=Semis, and site=H refers to NHL teams with a 2-games-1 NHL Stanley Cup Semifinals-round lead, having played Game 1 at home. Theoretical series victory probability for series-leading team = .6875 (based on theoretical game victory probabilities of .5). Table updated through Fall 2007.

sport round site Game 4 rec. series rec.
all all all 372-387 (.490) 565-194 (.744)
all all H 224-244 (.479) 382-86 (.816)
all all V 148-143 (.509) 183-108 (.629)
all Finals all 85-83 (.506) 130-38 (.774)
all Finals H 50-55 (.476) 88-17 (.838)
all Finals V 35-28 (.556) 42-21 (.667)
all Semis all 101-107 (.486) 160-48 (.769)
all Semis H 58-65 (.472) 101-22 (.821)
all Semis V 43-42 (.506) 59-26 (.694)
all Qtrs all 111-117 (.487) 171-57 (.750)
all Qtrs H 71-74 (.490) 122-23 (.841)
all Qtrs V 40-43 (.482) 49-34 (.590)
all Prelim all 75-80 (.484) 104-51 (.671)
all Prelim H 45-50 (.474) 71-24 (.747)
all Prelim V 30-30 (.500) 33-27 (.550)
MLB all all 60-52 (.536) 77-35 (.688)
MLB all H 30-28 (.517) 42-16 (.724)
MLB all V 30-24 (.556) 35-19 (.648)
MLB Finals all 37-39 (.487) 51-25 (.671)
MLB Finals H 17-23 (.425) 28-12 (.700)
MLB Finals V 20-16 (.556) 23-13 (.639)
MLB Semis all 23-13 (.639) 26-10 (.722)
MLB Semis H 13-5 (.722) 14-4 (.778)
MLB Semis V 10-8 (.556) 12-6 (.667)
NBA all all 141-139 (.504) 229-51 (.818)
NBA all H 91-105 (.464) 174-22 (.888)
NBA all V 50-34 (.595) 55-29 (.655)
NBA Finals all 24-25 (.490) 42-7 (.857)
NBA Finals H 16-19 (.457) 31-4 (.886)
NBA Finals V 8-6 (.571) 11-3 (.786)
NBA Semis all 35-42 (.455) 60-17 (.779)
NBA Semis H 19-30 (.388) 41-8 (.837)
NBA Semis V 16-12 (.571) 19-9 (.679)
NBA Qtrs all 64-60 (.516) 104-20 (.839)
NBA Qtrs H 43-47 (.478) 83-7 (.922)
NBA Qtrs V 21-13 (.618) 21-13 (.618)
NBA Prelim all 18-12 (.600) 23-7 (.767)
NBA Prelim H 13-9 (.591) 19-3 (.864)
NBA Prelim V 5-3 (.625) 4-4 (.500)
NHL all all 171-196 (.466) 259-108 (.706)
NHL all H 103-111 (.481) 166-48 (.776)
NHL all V 68-85 (.444) 93-60 (.608)
NHL Finals all 24-19 (.558) 37-6 (.860)
NHL Finals H 17-13 (.567) 29-1 (.967)
NHL Finals V 7-6 (.538) 8-5 (.615)
NHL Semis all 43-52 (.453) 74-21 (.779)
NHL Semis H 26-30 (.464) 46-10 (.821)
NHL Semis V 17-22 (.436) 28-11 (.718)
NHL Qtrs all 47-57 (.452) 67-37 (.644)
NHL Qtrs H 28-27 (.509) 39-16 (.709)
NHL Qtrs V 19-30 (.388) 28-21 (.571)
NHL Prelim all 57-68 (.456) 81-44 (.648)
NHL Prelim H 32-41 (.438) 52-21 (.712)
NHL Prelim V 25-27 (.481) 29-23 (.558)