WhoWins(tm) Best-of-7

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 GREATEST COMEBACK EVER
Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 ANNIHILATIONS
The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

RESOURCES
Societies, books, and other resources.

BEST-OF-7 FEATURES
Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

FAQ
Frequently-asked questions.

SEARCH RESULTS
Related search terms from popular search engines.

PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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HISTORICAL SERIES VICTORY PROBABILITIES (UP 2-GAMES-1)

Here's what has happened -- in both the series and the following game -- when an MLB/NBA/NHL team led a best-of-7 series 2 games to 1. "Site" means the site (H=home or V=road) where a team played Game 1: For example, the row in which sport=MLB, round=Finals, and site=V refers to MLB teams with a 2-games-1 MLB World Series lead, having played Game 1 on the road; for a second example, the row in which sport=NHL, round=Semis, and site=H refers to NHL teams with a 2-games-1 NHL Stanley Cup Semifinals-round lead, having played Game 1 at home. Theoretical series victory probability for series-leading team = .6875 (based on theoretical game victory probabilities of .5). Table updated through Fall 2025.

sport round site Game 4 rec. series rec.
all all all 595-608 (.495) 879-324 (.731)
all all H 361-381 (.487) 591-151 (.796)
all all V 234-227 (.508) 288-173 (.625)
all Finals all 107-106 (.502) 159-54 (.746)
all Finals H 68-67 (.504) 109-26 (.807)
all Finals V 39-39 (.500) 50-28 (.641)
all Semis all 141-144 (.495) 218-67 (.765)
all Semis H 80-90 (.471) 136-34 (.800)
all Semis V 61-54 (.530) 82-33 (.713)
all Qtrs all 162-178 (.476) 250-90 (.735)
all Qtrs H 99-114 (.465) 172-41 (.808)
all Qtrs V 63-64 (.496) 78-49 (.614)
all Prelim all 185-180 (.507) 252-113 (.690)
all Prelim H 114-110 (.509) 174-50 (.777)
all Prelim V 71-70 (.504) 78-63 (.553)
MLB all all 86-69 (.555) 109-46 (.703)
MLB all H 48-35 (.578) 63-20 (.759)
MLB all V 38-34 (.528) 46-26 (.639)
MLB Finals all 45-47 (.489) 63-29 (.685)
MLB Finals H 23-26 (.469) 35-14 (.714)
MLB Finals V 22-21 (.512) 28-15 (.651)
MLB Semis all 41-22 (.651) 46-17 (.730)
MLB Semis H 25-9 (.735) 28-6 (.824)
MLB Semis V 16-13 (.552) 18-11 (.621)
NBA all all 236-238 (.498) 374-100 (.789)
NBA all H 147-170 (.464) 275-42 (.868)
NBA all V 89-68 (.567) 99-58 (.631)
NBA Finals all 32-32 (.500) 50-14 (.781)
NBA Finals H 23-22 (.511) 38-7 (.844)
NBA Finals V 9-10 (.474) 12-7 (.632)
NBA Semis all 47-55 (.461) 80-22 (.784)
NBA Semis H 24-42 (.364) 54-12 (.818)
NBA Semis V 23-13 (.639) 26-10 (.722)
NBA Qtrs all 86-95 (.475) 143-38 (.790)
NBA Qtrs H 57-69 (.452) 110-16 (.873)
NBA Qtrs V 29-26 (.527) 33-22 (.600)
NBA Prelim all 71-56 (.559) 101-26 (.795)
NBA Prelim H 43-37 (.538) 73-7 (.913)
NBA Prelim V 28-19 (.596) 28-19 (.596)
NHL all all 273-301 (.476) 396-178 (.690)
NHL all H 166-176 (.485) 253-89 (.740)
NHL all V 107-125 (.461) 143-89 (.616)
NHL Finals all 30-27 (.526) 46-11 (.807)
NHL Finals H 22-19 (.537) 36-5 (.878)
NHL Finals V 8-8 (.500) 10-6 (.625)
NHL Semis all 53-67 (.442) 92-28 (.767)
NHL Semis H 31-39 (.443) 54-16 (.771)
NHL Semis V 22-28 (.440) 38-12 (.760)
NHL Qtrs all 76-83 (.478) 107-52 (.673)
NHL Qtrs H 42-45 (.483) 62-25 (.713)
NHL Qtrs V 34-38 (.472) 45-27 (.625)
NHL Prelim all 114-124 (.479) 151-87 (.634)
NHL Prelim H 71-73 (.493) 101-43 (.701)
NHL Prelim V 43-51 (.457) 50-44 (.532)