WhoWins(tm) Best-of-7

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 GREATEST COMEBACK EVER
Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 ANNIHILATIONS
The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

RESOURCES
Societies, books, and other resources.

BEST-OF-7 FEATURES
Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

FAQ
Frequently-asked questions.

SEARCH RESULTS
Related search terms from popular search engines.

PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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HISTORICAL SERIES VICTORY PROBABILITIES (UP 2-GAMES-1)

Here's what has happened -- in both the series and the following game -- when an MLB/NBA/NHL team led a best-of-7 series 2 games to 1. "Site" means the site (H=home or V=road) where a team played Game 1: For example, the row in which sport=MLB, round=Finals, and site=V refers to MLB teams with a 2-games-1 MLB World Series lead, having played Game 1 on the road; for a second example, the row in which sport=NHL, round=Semis, and site=H refers to NHL teams with a 2-games-1 NHL Stanley Cup Semifinals-round lead, having played Game 1 at home. Theoretical series victory probability for series-leading team = .6875 (based on theoretical game victory probabilities of .5). Table updated through Fall 2016.

sport round site Game 4 rec. series rec.
all all all 483-496 (.493) 723-256 (.739)
all all H 289-316 (.478) 488-117 (.807)
all all V 194-180 (.519) 235-139 (.628)
all Finals all 97-95 (.505) 143-49 (.745)
all Finals H 60-63 (.488) 99-24 (.805)
all Finals V 37-32 (.536) 44-25 (.638)
all Semis all 124-124 (.500) 194-54 (.782)
all Semis H 71-78 (.477) 124-25 (.832)
all Semis V 53-46 (.535) 70-29 (.707)
all Qtrs all 134-145 (.480) 206-73 (.738)
all Qtrs H 85-92 (.480) 147-30 (.831)
all Qtrs V 49-53 (.480) 59-43 (.578)
all Prelim all 128-132 (.492) 180-80 (.692)
all Prelim H 73-83 (.468) 118-38 (.756)
all Prelim V 55-49 (.529) 62-42 (.596)
MLB all all 76-58 (.567) 94-40 (.701)
MLB all H 41-31 (.569) 54-18 (.750)
MLB all V 35-27 (.565) 40-22 (.645)
MLB Finals all 42-42 (.500) 56-28 (.667)
MLB Finals H 21-25 (.457) 32-14 (.696)
MLB Finals V 21-17 (.553) 24-14 (.632)
MLB Semis all 34-16 (.680) 38-12 (.760)
MLB Semis H 20-6 (.769) 22-4 (.846)
MLB Semis V 14-10 (.583) 16-8 (.667)
NBA all all 186-191 (.493) 302-75 (.801)
NBA all H 114-141 (.447) 225-30 (.882)
NBA all V 72-50 (.590) 77-45 (.631)
NBA Finals all 29-29 (.500) 47-11 (.810)
NBA Finals H 20-21 (.488) 35-6 (.854)
NBA Finals V 9-8 (.529) 12-5 (.706)
NBA Semis all 41-50 (.451) 72-19 (.791)
NBA Semis H 21-38 (.356) 50-9 (.847)
NBA Semis V 20-12 (.625) 22-10 (.688)
NBA Qtrs all 74-77 (.490) 122-29 (.808)
NBA Qtrs H 50-58 (.463) 98-10 (.907)
NBA Qtrs V 24-19 (.558) 24-19 (.558)
NBA Prelim all 42-35 (.545) 61-16 (.792)
NBA Prelim H 23-24 (.489) 42-5 (.894)
NBA Prelim V 19-11 (.633) 19-11 (.633)
NHL all all 221-247 (.472) 327-141 (.699)
NHL all H 134-144 (.482) 209-69 (.752)
NHL all V 87-103 (.458) 118-72 (.621)
NHL Finals all 26-24 (.520) 40-10 (.800)
NHL Finals H 19-17 (.528) 32-4 (.889)
NHL Finals V 7-7 (.500) 8-6 (.571)
NHL Semis all 49-58 (.458) 84-23 (.785)
NHL Semis H 30-34 (.469) 52-12 (.813)
NHL Semis V 19-24 (.442) 32-11 (.744)
NHL Qtrs all 60-68 (.469) 84-44 (.656)
NHL Qtrs H 35-34 (.507) 49-20 (.710)
NHL Qtrs V 25-34 (.424) 35-24 (.593)
NHL Prelim all 86-97 (.470) 119-64 (.650)
NHL Prelim H 50-59 (.459) 76-33 (.697)
NHL Prelim V 36-38 (.486) 43-31 (.581)