WhoWins(tm) Best-of-7

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 GREATEST COMEBACK EVER
Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 ANNIHILATIONS
The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

RESOURCES
Societies, books, and other resources.

BEST-OF-7 FEATURES
Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

FAQ
Frequently-asked questions.

SEARCH RESULTS
Related search terms from popular search engines.

PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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HISTORICAL SERIES VICTORY PROBABILITIES (UP 2-GAMES-1)

Here's what has happened -- in both the series and the following game -- when an MLB/NBA/NHL team led a best-of-7 series 2 games to 1. "Site" means the site (H=home or V=road) where a team played Game 1: For example, the row in which sport=MLB, round=Finals, and site=V refers to MLB teams with a 2-games-1 MLB World Series lead, having played Game 1 on the road; for a second example, the row in which sport=NHL, round=Semis, and site=H refers to NHL teams with a 2-games-1 NHL Stanley Cup Semifinals-round lead, having played Game 1 at home. Theoretical series victory probability for series-leading team = .6875 (based on theoretical game victory probabilities of .5). Table updated through Fall 2018.

sport round site Game 4 rec. series rec.
all all all 503-524 (.490) 760-267 (.740)
all all H 303-332 (.477) 514-121 (.809)
all all V 200-192 (.510) 246-146 (.628)
all Finals all 99-97 (.505) 147-49 (.750)
all Finals H 61-64 (.488) 101-24 (.808)
all Finals V 38-33 (.535) 46-25 (.648)
all Semis all 127-131 (.492) 201-57 (.779)
all Semis H 72-81 (.471) 126-27 (.824)
all Semis V 55-50 (.524) 75-30 (.714)
all Qtrs all 139-152 (.478) 217-74 (.746)
all Qtrs H 88-97 (.476) 155-30 (.838)
all Qtrs V 51-55 (.481) 62-44 (.585)
all Prelim all 138-144 (.489) 195-87 (.691)
all Prelim H 82-90 (.477) 132-40 (.767)
all Prelim V 56-54 (.509) 63-47 (.573)
MLB all all 78-61 (.561) 98-41 (.705)
MLB all H 43-33 (.566) 57-19 (.750)
MLB all V 35-28 (.556) 41-22 (.651)
MLB Finals all 43-43 (.500) 58-28 (.674)
MLB Finals H 22-25 (.468) 33-14 (.702)
MLB Finals V 21-18 (.538) 25-14 (.641)
MLB Semis all 35-18 (.660) 40-13 (.755)
MLB Semis H 21-8 (.724) 24-5 (.828)
MLB Semis V 14-10 (.583) 16-8 (.667)
NBA all all 193-203 (.487) 316-80 (.798)
NBA all H 119-149 (.444) 236-32 (.881)
NBA all V 74-54 (.578) 80-48 (.625)
NBA Finals all 29-29 (.500) 47-11 (.810)
NBA Finals H 20-21 (.488) 35-6 (.854)
NBA Finals V 9-8 (.529) 12-5 (.706)
NBA Semis all 42-52 (.447) 74-20 (.787)
NBA Semis H 21-39 (.350) 50-10 (.833)
NBA Semis V 21-13 (.618) 24-10 (.706)
NBA Qtrs all 76-79 (.490) 126-29 (.813)
NBA Qtrs H 52-60 (.464) 102-10 (.911)
NBA Qtrs V 24-19 (.558) 24-19 (.558)
NBA Prelim all 46-43 (.517) 69-20 (.775)
NBA Prelim H 26-29 (.473) 49-6 (.891)
NBA Prelim V 20-14 (.588) 20-14 (.588)
NHL all all 232-260 (.472) 346-146 (.703)
NHL all H 141-150 (.485) 221-70 (.759)
NHL all V 91-110 (.453) 125-76 (.622)
NHL Finals all 27-25 (.519) 42-10 (.808)
NHL Finals H 19-18 (.514) 33-4 (.892)
NHL Finals V 8-7 (.533) 9-6 (.600)
NHL Semis all 50-61 (.450) 87-24 (.784)
NHL Semis H 30-34 (.469) 52-12 (.813)
NHL Semis V 20-27 (.426) 35-12 (.745)
NHL Qtrs all 63-73 (.463) 91-45 (.669)
NHL Qtrs H 36-37 (.493) 53-20 (.726)
NHL Qtrs V 27-36 (.429) 38-25 (.603)
NHL Prelim all 92-101 (.477) 126-67 (.653)
NHL Prelim H 56-61 (.479) 83-34 (.709)
NHL Prelim V 36-40 (.474) 43-33 (.566)