WhoWins(tm) Best-of-7

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 GREATEST COMEBACK EVER
Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 ANNIHILATIONS
The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

RESOURCES
Societies, books, and other resources.

BEST-OF-7 FEATURES
Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

FAQ
Frequently-asked questions.

SEARCH RESULTS
Related search terms from popular search engines.

PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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HISTORICAL SERIES VICTORY PROBABILITIES (UP 2-GAMES-1)

Here's what has happened -- in both the series and the following game -- when an MLB/NBA/NHL team led a best-of-7 series 2 games to 1. "Site" means the site (H=home or V=road) where a team played Game 1: For example, the row in which sport=MLB, round=Finals, and site=V refers to MLB teams with a 2-games-1 MLB World Series lead, having played Game 1 on the road; for a second example, the row in which sport=NHL, round=Semis, and site=H refers to NHL teams with a 2-games-1 NHL Stanley Cup Semifinals-round lead, having played Game 1 at home. Theoretical series victory probability for series-leading team = .6875 (based on theoretical game victory probabilities of .5). Table updated through Fall 2014.

sport round site Game 4 rec. series rec.
all all all 461-470 (.495) 692-239 (.743)
all all H 274-304 (.474) 467-111 (.808)
all all V 187-166 (.530) 225-128 (.637)
all Finals all 93-93 (.500) 141-45 (.758)
all Finals H 56-62 (.475) 97-21 (.822)
all Finals V 37-31 (.544) 44-24 (.647)
all Semis all 122-118 (.508) 189-51 (.788)
all Semis H 70-75 (.483) 121-24 (.834)
all Semis V 52-43 (.547) 68-27 (.716)
all Qtrs all 128-138 (.481) 199-67 (.748)
all Qtrs H 82-89 (.480) 142-29 (.830)
all Qtrs V 46-49 (.484) 57-38 (.600)
all Prelim all 118-121 (.494) 163-76 (.682)
all Prelim H 66-78 (.458) 107-37 (.743)
all Prelim V 52-43 (.547) 56-39 (.589)
MLB all all 73-57 (.562) 92-38 (.708)
MLB all H 38-31 (.551) 52-17 (.754)
MLB all V 35-26 (.574) 40-21 (.656)
MLB Finals all 40-42 (.488) 55-27 (.671)
MLB Finals H 19-25 (.432) 31-13 (.705)
MLB Finals V 21-17 (.553) 24-14 (.632)
MLB Semis all 33-15 (.688) 37-11 (.771)
MLB Semis H 19-6 (.760) 21-4 (.840)
MLB Semis V 14-9 (.609) 16-7 (.696)
NBA all all 180-178 (.503) 293-65 (.818)
NBA all H 110-133 (.453) 216-27 (.889)
NBA all V 70-45 (.609) 77-38 (.670)
NBA Finals all 28-28 (.500) 47-9 (.839)
NBA Finals H 19-21 (.475) 35-5 (.875)
NBA Finals V 9-7 (.563) 12-4 (.750)
NBA Semis all 40-49 (.449) 71-18 (.798)
NBA Semis H 21-37 (.362) 49-9 (.845)
NBA Semis V 19-12 (.613) 22-9 (.710)
NBA Qtrs all 72-72 (.500) 120-24 (.833)
NBA Qtrs H 49-56 (.467) 96-9 (.914)
NBA Qtrs V 23-16 (.590) 24-15 (.615)
NBA Prelim all 40-29 (.580) 55-14 (.797)
NBA Prelim H 21-19 (.525) 36-4 (.900)
NBA Prelim V 19-10 (.655) 19-10 (.655)
NHL all all 208-235 (.470) 307-136 (.693)
NHL all H 126-140 (.474) 199-67 (.748)
NHL all V 82-95 (.463) 108-69 (.610)
NHL Finals all 25-23 (.521) 39-9 (.813)
NHL Finals H 18-16 (.529) 31-3 (.912)
NHL Finals V 7-7 (.500) 8-6 (.571)
NHL Semis all 49-54 (.476) 81-22 (.786)
NHL Semis H 30-32 (.484) 51-11 (.823)
NHL Semis V 19-22 (.463) 30-11 (.732)
NHL Qtrs all 56-66 (.459) 79-43 (.648)
NHL Qtrs H 33-33 (.500) 46-20 (.697)
NHL Qtrs V 23-33 (.411) 33-23 (.589)
NHL Prelim all 78-92 (.459) 108-62 (.635)
NHL Prelim H 45-59 (.433) 71-33 (.683)
NHL Prelim V 33-33 (.500) 37-29 (.561)