WhoWins(tm) Best-of-7

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 GREATEST COMEBACK EVER
Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 ANNIHILATIONS
The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

RESOURCES
Societies, books, and other resources.

BEST-OF-7 FEATURES
Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

FAQ
Frequently-asked questions.

SEARCH RESULTS
Related search terms from popular search engines.

PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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HISTORICAL SERIES VICTORY PROBABILITIES (UP 2-GAMES-1)

Here's what has happened -- in both the series and the following game -- when an MLB/NBA/NHL team led a best-of-7 series 2 games to 1. "Site" means the site (H=home or V=road) where a team played Game 1: For example, the row in which sport=MLB, round=Finals, and site=V refers to MLB teams with a 2-games-1 MLB World Series lead, having played Game 1 on the road; for a second example, the row in which sport=NHL, round=Semis, and site=H refers to NHL teams with a 2-games-1 NHL Stanley Cup Semifinals-round lead, having played Game 1 at home. Theoretical series victory probability for series-leading team = .6875 (based on theoretical game victory probabilities of .5). Table updated through Fall 2022.

sport round site Game 4 rec. series rec.
all all all 551-577 (.488) 824-304 (.730)
all all H 334-366 (.477) 559-141 (.799)
all all V 217-211 (.507) 265-163 (.619)
all Finals all 104-103 (.502) 154-53 (.744)
all Finals H 65-67 (.492) 106-26 (.803)
all Finals V 39-36 (.520) 48-27 (.640)
all Semis all 136-139 (.495) 212-63 (.771)
all Semis H 77-87 (.470) 133-31 (.811)
all Semis V 59-52 (.532) 79-32 (.712)
all Qtrs all 150-168 (.472) 233-85 (.733)
all Qtrs H 94-108 (.465) 164-38 (.812)
all Qtrs V 56-60 (.483) 69-47 (.595)
all Prelim all 161-167 (.491) 225-103 (.686)
all Prelim H 98-104 (.485) 156-46 (.772)
all Prelim V 63-63 (.500) 69-57 (.548)
MLB all all 83-65 (.561) 104-44 (.703)
MLB all H 45-34 (.570) 60-19 (.759)
MLB all V 38-31 (.551) 44-25 (.638)
MLB Finals all 44-46 (.489) 61-29 (.678)
MLB Finals H 22-26 (.458) 34-14 (.708)
MLB Finals V 22-20 (.524) 27-15 (.643)
MLB Semis all 39-19 (.672) 43-15 (.741)
MLB Semis H 23-8 (.742) 26-5 (.839)
MLB Semis V 16-11 (.593) 17-10 (.630)
NBA all all 214-227 (.485) 346-95 (.785)
NBA all H 136-165 (.452) 261-40 (.867)
NBA all V 78-62 (.557) 85-55 (.607)
NBA Finals all 31-31 (.500) 49-13 (.790)
NBA Finals H 22-22 (.500) 37-7 (.841)
NBA Finals V 9-9 (.500) 12-6 (.667)
NBA Semis all 45-55 (.450) 78-22 (.780)
NBA Semis H 23-42 (.354) 53-12 (.815)
NBA Semis V 22-13 (.629) 25-10 (.714)
NBA Qtrs all 80-89 (.473) 133-36 (.787)
NBA Qtrs H 55-66 (.455) 106-15 (.876)
NBA Qtrs V 25-23 (.521) 27-21 (.563)
NBA Prelim all 58-52 (.527) 86-24 (.782)
NBA Prelim H 36-35 (.507) 65-6 (.915)
NBA Prelim V 22-17 (.564) 21-18 (.538)
NHL all all 254-285 (.471) 374-165 (.694)
NHL all H 153-167 (.478) 238-82 (.744)
NHL all V 101-118 (.461) 136-83 (.621)
NHL Finals all 29-26 (.527) 44-11 (.800)
NHL Finals H 21-19 (.525) 35-5 (.875)
NHL Finals V 8-7 (.533) 9-6 (.600)
NHL Semis all 52-65 (.444) 91-26 (.778)
NHL Semis H 31-37 (.456) 54-14 (.794)
NHL Semis V 21-28 (.429) 37-12 (.755)
NHL Qtrs all 70-79 (.470) 100-49 (.671)
NHL Qtrs H 39-42 (.481) 58-23 (.716)
NHL Qtrs V 31-37 (.456) 42-26 (.618)
NHL Prelim all 103-115 (.472) 139-79 (.638)
NHL Prelim H 62-69 (.473) 91-40 (.695)
NHL Prelim V 41-46 (.471) 48-39 (.552)