WhoWins(tm) Best-of-7

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 GREATEST COMEBACK EVER
Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 ANNIHILATIONS
The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

RESOURCES
Societies, books, and other resources.

BEST-OF-7 FEATURES
Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

FAQ
Frequently-asked questions.

SEARCH RESULTS
Related search terms from popular search engines.

PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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HISTORICAL SERIES VICTORY PROBABILITIES (UP 2-GAMES-1)

Here's what has happened -- in both the series and the following game -- when an MLB/NBA/NHL team led a best-of-7 series 2 games to 1. "Site" means the site (H=home or V=road) where a team played Game 1: For example, the row in which sport=MLB, round=Finals, and site=V refers to MLB teams with a 2-games-1 MLB World Series lead, having played Game 1 on the road; for a second example, the row in which sport=NHL, round=Semis, and site=H refers to NHL teams with a 2-games-1 NHL Stanley Cup Semifinals-round lead, having played Game 1 at home. Theoretical series victory probability for series-leading team = .6875 (based on theoretical game victory probabilities of .5). Table updated through Fall 2012.

sport round site Game 4 rec. series rec.
all all all 438-441 (.498) 655-224 (.745)
all all H 263-284 (.481) 444-103 (.812)
all all V 175-157 (.527) 211-121 (.636)
all Finals all 92-89 (.508) 140-41 (.773)
all Finals H 55-61 (.474) 96-20 (.828)
all Finals V 37-28 (.569) 44-21 (.677)
all Semis all 116-115 (.502) 180-51 (.779)
all Semis H 68-72 (.486) 116-24 (.829)
all Semis V 48-43 (.527) 64-27 (.703)
all Qtrs all 120-132 (.476) 187-65 (.742)
all Qtrs H 77-85 (.475) 134-28 (.827)
all Qtrs V 43-47 (.478) 53-37 (.589)
all Prelim all 110-105 (.512) 148-67 (.688)
all Prelim H 63-66 (.488) 98-31 (.760)
all Prelim V 47-39 (.547) 50-36 (.581)
MLB all all 71-54 (.568) 89-36 (.712)
MLB all H 37-29 (.561) 50-16 (.758)
MLB all V 34-25 (.576) 39-20 (.661)
MLB Finals all 40-40 (.500) 55-25 (.688)
MLB Finals H 19-24 (.442) 31-12 (.721)
MLB Finals V 21-16 (.568) 24-13 (.649)
MLB Semis all 31-14 (.689) 34-11 (.756)
MLB Semis H 18-5 (.783) 19-4 (.826)
MLB Semis V 13-9 (.591) 15-7 (.682)
NBA all all 169-166 (.504) 275-60 (.821)
NBA all H 106-126 (.457) 206-26 (.888)
NBA all V 63-40 (.612) 69-34 (.670)
NBA Finals all 27-27 (.500) 46-8 (.852)
NBA Finals H 18-21 (.462) 34-5 (.872)
NBA Finals V 9-6 (.600) 12-3 (.800)
NBA Semis all 39-47 (.453) 68-18 (.791)
NBA Semis H 21-35 (.375) 47-9 (.839)
NBA Semis V 18-12 (.600) 21-9 (.700)
NBA Qtrs all 67-70 (.489) 113-24 (.825)
NBA Qtrs H 46-54 (.460) 91-9 (.910)
NBA Qtrs V 21-16 (.568) 22-15 (.595)
NBA Prelim all 36-22 (.621) 48-10 (.828)
NBA Prelim H 21-16 (.568) 34-3 (.919)
NBA Prelim V 15-6 (.714) 14-7 (.667)
NHL all all 198-221 (.473) 291-128 (.695)
NHL all H 120-129 (.482) 188-61 (.755)
NHL all V 78-92 (.459) 103-67 (.606)
NHL Finals all 25-22 (.532) 39-8 (.830)
NHL Finals H 18-16 (.529) 31-3 (.912)
NHL Finals V 7-6 (.538) 8-5 (.615)
NHL Semis all 46-54 (.460) 78-22 (.780)
NHL Semis H 29-32 (.475) 50-11 (.820)
NHL Semis V 17-22 (.436) 28-11 (.718)
NHL Qtrs all 53-62 (.461) 74-41 (.643)
NHL Qtrs H 31-31 (.500) 43-19 (.694)
NHL Qtrs V 22-31 (.415) 31-22 (.585)
NHL Prelim all 74-83 (.471) 100-57 (.637)
NHL Prelim H 42-50 (.457) 64-28 (.696)
NHL Prelim V 32-33 (.492) 36-29 (.554)