WhoWins(tm) Best-of-7

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 GREATEST COMEBACK EVER
Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 ANNIHILATIONS
The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

RESOURCES
Societies, books, and other resources.

BEST-OF-7 FEATURES
Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

FAQ
Frequently-asked questions.

SEARCH RESULTS
Related search terms from popular search engines.

PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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HISTORICAL SERIES VICTORY PROBABILITIES (UP 1-GAME-NIL)

Here's what has happened -- in both the series and the following game -- when an MLB/NBA/NHL team led a best-of-7 series 1 game to nil. "Site" means the site (H=home or V=road) where a team played Game 1: For example, the row in which sport=MLB, round=Finals, and site=V refers to MLB teams with a 1-game-nil MLB World Series lead, having played Game 1 on the road; for a second example, the row in which sport=NHL, round=Semis, and site=H refers to NHL teams with a 1-game-nil NHL Stanley Cup Semifinals-round lead, having played Game 1 at home. Theoretical series victory probability for series-leading team = .65625 (based on theoretical game victory probabilities of .5). Table updated through Fall 2018.

sport round site Game 2 rec. series rec.
all all all 753-632 (.544) 984-401 (.710)
all all H 598-325 (.648) 726-197 (.787)
all all V 155-307 (.335) 258-204 (.558)
all Finals all 138-123 (.529) 182-79 (.697)
all Finals H 109-70 (.609) 136-43 (.760)
all Finals V 29-53 (.354) 46-36 (.561)
all Semis all 183-161 (.532) 245-99 (.712)
all Semis H 137-84 (.620) 168-53 (.760)
all Semis V 46-77 (.374) 77-46 (.626)
all Qtrs all 226-178 (.559) 296-108 (.733)
all Qtrs H 188-95 (.664) 232-51 (.820)
all Qtrs V 38-83 (.314) 64-57 (.529)
all Prelim all 206-170 (.548) 261-115 (.694)
all Prelim H 164-76 (.683) 190-50 (.792)
all Prelim V 42-94 (.309) 71-65 (.522)
MLB all all 83-93 (.472) 112-64 (.636)
MLB all H 57-46 (.553) 69-34 (.670)
MLB all V 26-47 (.356) 43-30 (.589)
MLB Finals all 53-57 (.482) 70-40 (.636)
MLB Finals H 39-28 (.582) 45-22 (.672)
MLB Finals V 14-29 (.326) 25-18 (.581)
MLB Semis all 30-36 (.455) 42-24 (.636)
MLB Semis H 18-18 (.500) 24-12 (.667)
MLB Semis V 12-18 (.400) 18-12 (.600)
NBA all all 302-226 (.572) 405-123 (.767)
NBA all H 267-120 (.690) 330-57 (.853)
NBA all V 35-106 (.248) 75-66 (.532)
NBA Finals all 34-38 (.472) 51-21 (.708)
NBA Finals H 31-24 (.564) 43-12 (.782)
NBA Finals V 3-14 (.176) 8-9 (.471)
NBA Semis all 72-52 (.581) 98-26 (.790)
NBA Semis H 58-28 (.674) 71-15 (.826)
NBA Semis V 14-24 (.368) 27-11 (.711)
NBA Qtrs all 113-91 (.554) 158-46 (.775)
NBA Qtrs H 102-50 (.671) 134-18 (.882)
NBA Qtrs V 11-41 (.212) 24-28 (.462)
NBA Prelim all 83-45 (.648) 98-30 (.766)
NBA Prelim H 76-18 (.809) 82-12 (.872)
NBA Prelim V 7-27 (.206) 16-18 (.471)
NHL all all 368-313 (.540) 467-214 (.686)
NHL all H 274-159 (.633) 327-106 (.755)
NHL all V 94-154 (.379) 140-108 (.565)
NHL Finals all 51-28 (.646) 61-18 (.772)
NHL Finals H 39-18 (.684) 48-9 (.842)
NHL Finals V 12-10 (.545) 13-9 (.591)
NHL Semis all 81-73 (.526) 105-49 (.682)
NHL Semis H 61-38 (.616) 73-26 (.737)
NHL Semis V 20-35 (.364) 32-23 (.582)
NHL Qtrs all 113-87 (.565) 138-62 (.690)
NHL Qtrs H 86-45 (.656) 98-33 (.748)
NHL Qtrs V 27-42 (.391) 40-29 (.580)
NHL Prelim all 123-125 (.496) 163-85 (.657)
NHL Prelim H 88-58 (.603) 108-38 (.740)
NHL Prelim V 35-67 (.343) 55-47 (.539)