WhoWins(tm) Best-of-7

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 GREATEST COMEBACK EVER
Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 ANNIHILATIONS
The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

RESOURCES
Societies, books, and other resources.

BEST-OF-7 FEATURES
Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

FAQ
Frequently-asked questions.

SEARCH RESULTS
Related search terms from popular search engines.

PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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HISTORICAL SERIES VICTORY PROBABILITIES (UP 1-GAME-NIL)

Here's what has happened -- in both the series and the following game -- when an MLB/NBA/NHL team led a best-of-7 series 1 game to nil. "Site" means the site (H=home or V=road) where a team played Game 1: For example, the row in which sport=MLB, round=Finals, and site=V refers to MLB teams with a 1-game-nil MLB World Series lead, having played Game 1 on the road; for a second example, the row in which sport=NHL, round=Semis, and site=H refers to NHL teams with a 1-game-nil NHL Stanley Cup Semifinals-round lead, having played Game 1 at home. Theoretical series victory probability for series-leading team = .65625 (based on theoretical game victory probabilities of .5). Table updated through Fall 2020.

sport round site Game 2 rec. series rec.
all all all 785-666 (.541) 1030-421 (.710)
all all H 617-344 (.642) 757-204 (.788)
all all V 168-322 (.343) 273-217 (.557)
all Finals all 140-127 (.524) 186-81 (.697)
all Finals H 110-73 (.601) 139-44 (.760)
all Finals V 30-54 (.357) 47-37 (.560)
all Semis all 192-164 (.539) 253-103 (.711)
all Semis H 143-85 (.627) 173-55 (.759)
all Semis V 49-79 (.383) 80-48 (.625)
all Qtrs all 231-189 (.550) 307-113 (.731)
all Qtrs H 189-102 (.649) 238-53 (.818)
all Qtrs V 42-87 (.326) 69-60 (.535)
all Prelim all 222-186 (.544) 284-124 (.696)
all Prelim H 175-84 (.676) 207-52 (.799)
all Prelim V 47-102 (.315) 77-72 (.517)
MLB all all 87-95 (.478) 116-66 (.637)
MLB all H 58-47 (.552) 71-34 (.676)
MLB all V 29-48 (.377) 45-32 (.584)
MLB Finals all 54-58 (.482) 72-40 (.643)
MLB Finals H 39-29 (.574) 46-22 (.676)
MLB Finals V 15-29 (.341) 26-18 (.591)
MLB Semis all 33-37 (.471) 44-26 (.629)
MLB Semis H 19-18 (.514) 25-12 (.676)
MLB Semis V 14-19 (.424) 19-14 (.576)
NBA all all 318-240 (.570) 425-133 (.762)
NBA all H 279-127 (.687) 346-60 (.852)
NBA all V 39-113 (.257) 79-73 (.520)
NBA Finals all 35-39 (.473) 53-21 (.716)
NBA Finals H 32-25 (.561) 45-12 (.789)
NBA Finals V 3-14 (.176) 8-9 (.471)
NBA Semis all 76-52 (.594) 101-27 (.789)
NBA Semis H 61-28 (.685) 73-16 (.820)
NBA Semis V 15-24 (.385) 28-11 (.718)
NBA Qtrs all 116-96 (.547) 162-50 (.764)
NBA Qtrs H 103-53 (.660) 136-20 (.872)
NBA Qtrs V 13-43 (.232) 26-30 (.464)
NBA Prelim all 91-53 (.632) 109-35 (.757)
NBA Prelim H 83-21 (.798) 92-12 (.885)
NBA Prelim V 8-32 (.200) 17-23 (.425)
NHL all all 380-331 (.534) 489-222 (.688)
NHL all H 280-170 (.622) 340-110 (.756)
NHL all V 100-161 (.383) 149-112 (.571)
NHL Finals all 51-30 (.630) 61-20 (.753)
NHL Finals H 39-19 (.672) 48-10 (.828)
NHL Finals V 12-11 (.522) 13-10 (.565)
NHL Semis all 83-75 (.525) 108-50 (.684)
NHL Semis H 63-39 (.618) 75-27 (.735)
NHL Semis V 20-36 (.357) 33-23 (.589)
NHL Qtrs all 115-93 (.553) 145-63 (.697)
NHL Qtrs H 86-49 (.637) 102-33 (.756)
NHL Qtrs V 29-44 (.397) 43-30 (.589)
NHL Prelim all 131-133 (.496) 175-89 (.663)
NHL Prelim H 92-63 (.594) 115-40 (.742)
NHL Prelim V 39-70 (.358) 60-49 (.550)