WhoWins(tm) Best-of-7

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 GREATEST COMEBACK EVER
Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 ANNIHILATIONS
The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

RESOURCES
Societies, books, and other resources.

BEST-OF-7 FEATURES
Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

FAQ
Frequently-asked questions.

SEARCH RESULTS
Related search terms from popular search engines.

PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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HISTORICAL SERIES VICTORY PROBABILITIES (UP 1-GAME-NIL)

Here's what has happened -- in both the series and the following game -- when an MLB/NBA/NHL team led a best-of-7 series 1 game to nil. "Site" means the site (H=home or V=road) where a team played Game 1: For example, the row in which sport=MLB, round=Finals, and site=V refers to MLB teams with a 1-game-nil MLB World Series lead, having played Game 1 on the road; for a second example, the row in which sport=NHL, round=Semis, and site=H refers to NHL teams with a 1-game-nil NHL Stanley Cup Semifinals-round lead, having played Game 1 at home. Theoretical series victory probability for series-leading team = .65625 (based on theoretical game victory probabilities of .5). Table updated through Fall 2010.

sport round site Game 2 rec. series rec.
all all all 611-510 (.545) 799-322 (.713)
all all H 490-262 (.652) 594-158 (.790)
all all V 121-248 (.328) 205-164 (.556)
all Finals all 127-110 (.536) 166-71 (.700)
all Finals H 99-60 (.623) 123-36 (.774)
all Finals V 28-50 (.359) 43-35 (.551)
all Semis all 158-138 (.534) 216-80 (.730)
all Semis H 120-71 (.628) 150-41 (.785)
all Semis V 38-67 (.362) 66-39 (.629)
all Qtrs all 195-145 (.574) 252-88 (.741)
all Qtrs H 166-81 (.672) 201-46 (.814)
all Qtrs V 29-64 (.312) 51-42 (.548)
all Prelim all 131-117 (.528) 165-83 (.665)
all Prelim H 105-50 (.677) 120-35 (.774)
all Prelim V 26-67 (.280) 45-48 (.484)
MLB all all 71-81 (.467) 95-57 (.625)
MLB all H 47-39 (.547) 56-30 (.651)
MLB all V 24-42 (.364) 39-27 (.591)
MLB Finals all 50-52 (.490) 64-38 (.627)
MLB Finals H 36-24 (.600) 40-20 (.667)
MLB Finals V 14-28 (.333) 24-18 (.571)
MLB Semis all 21-29 (.420) 31-19 (.620)
MLB Semis H 11-15 (.423) 16-10 (.615)
MLB Semis V 10-14 (.417) 15-9 (.625)
NBA all all 233-175 (.571) 321-87 (.787)
NBA all H 207-95 (.685) 261-41 (.864)
NBA all V 26-80 (.245) 60-46 (.566)
NBA Finals all 31-33 (.484) 47-17 (.734)
NBA Finals H 28-20 (.583) 39-9 (.813)
NBA Finals V 3-13 (.188) 8-8 (.500)
NBA Semis all 62-46 (.574) 87-21 (.806)
NBA Semis H 50-24 (.676) 63-11 (.851)
NBA Semis V 12-22 (.353) 24-10 (.706)
NBA Qtrs all 99-73 (.576) 138-34 (.802)
NBA Qtrs H 90-43 (.677) 117-16 (.880)
NBA Qtrs V 9-30 (.231) 21-18 (.538)
NBA Prelim all 41-23 (.641) 49-15 (.766)
NBA Prelim H 39-8 (.830) 42-5 (.894)
NBA Prelim V 2-15 (.118) 7-10 (.412)
NHL all all 307-254 (.547) 383-178 (.683)
NHL all H 236-128 (.648) 277-87 (.761)
NHL all V 71-126 (.360) 106-91 (.538)
NHL Finals all 46-25 (.648) 55-16 (.775)
NHL Finals H 35-16 (.686) 44-7 (.863)
NHL Finals V 11-9 (.550) 11-9 (.550)
NHL Semis all 75-63 (.543) 98-40 (.710)
NHL Semis H 59-32 (.648) 71-20 (.780)
NHL Semis V 16-31 (.340) 27-20 (.574)
NHL Qtrs all 96-72 (.571) 114-54 (.679)
NHL Qtrs H 76-38 (.667) 84-30 (.737)
NHL Qtrs V 20-34 (.370) 30-24 (.556)
NHL Prelim all 90-94 (.489) 116-68 (.630)
NHL Prelim H 66-42 (.611) 78-30 (.722)
NHL Prelim V 24-52 (.316) 38-38 (.500)