WhoWins(tm) Best-of-7

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 GREATEST COMEBACK EVER
Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 ANNIHILATIONS
The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

RESOURCES
Societies, books, and other resources.

BEST-OF-7 FEATURES
Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

FAQ
Frequently-asked questions.

SEARCH RESULTS
Related search terms from popular search engines.

PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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HISTORICAL SERIES VICTORY PROBABILITIES (UP 1-GAME-NIL)

Here's what has happened -- in both the series and the following game -- when an MLB/NBA/NHL team led a best-of-7 series 1 game to nil. "Site" means the site (H=home or V=road) where a team played Game 1: For example, the row in which sport=MLB, round=Finals, and site=V refers to MLB teams with a 1-game-nil MLB World Series lead, having played Game 1 on the road; for a second example, the row in which sport=NHL, round=Semis, and site=H refers to NHL teams with a 1-game-nil NHL Stanley Cup Semifinals-round lead, having played Game 1 at home. Theoretical series victory probability for series-leading team = .65625 (based on theoretical game victory probabilities of .5). Table updated through Fall 2012.

sport round site Game 2 rec. series rec.
all all all 644-543 (.543) 844-343 (.711)
all all H 513-282 (.645) 625-170 (.786)
all all V 131-261 (.334) 219-173 (.559)
all Finals all 130-113 (.535) 169-74 (.695)
all Finals H 101-63 (.616) 125-39 (.762)
all Finals V 29-50 (.367) 44-35 (.557)
all Semis all 164-144 (.532) 222-86 (.721)
all Semis H 124-75 (.623) 154-45 (.774)
all Semis V 40-69 (.367) 68-41 (.624)
all Qtrs all 204-152 (.573) 265-91 (.744)
all Qtrs H 171-86 (.665) 210-47 (.817)
all Qtrs V 33-66 (.333) 55-44 (.556)
all Prelim all 146-134 (.521) 188-92 (.671)
all Prelim H 117-58 (.669) 136-39 (.777)
all Prelim V 29-76 (.276) 52-53 (.495)
MLB all all 74-84 (.468) 99-59 (.627)
MLB all H 49-41 (.544) 59-31 (.656)
MLB all V 25-43 (.368) 40-28 (.588)
MLB Finals all 51-53 (.490) 66-38 (.635)
MLB Finals H 37-25 (.597) 42-20 (.677)
MLB Finals V 14-28 (.333) 24-18 (.571)
MLB Semis all 23-31 (.426) 33-21 (.611)
MLB Semis H 12-16 (.429) 17-11 (.607)
MLB Semis V 11-15 (.423) 16-10 (.615)
NBA all all 248-190 (.566) 341-97 (.779)
NBA all H 221-103 (.682) 277-47 (.855)
NBA all V 27-87 (.237) 64-50 (.561)
NBA Finals all 31-35 (.470) 47-19 (.712)
NBA Finals H 28-22 (.560) 39-11 (.780)
NBA Finals V 3-13 (.188) 8-8 (.500)
NBA Semis all 64-48 (.571) 89-23 (.795)
NBA Semis H 52-26 (.667) 65-13 (.833)
NBA Semis V 12-22 (.353) 24-10 (.706)
NBA Qtrs all 103-77 (.572) 144-36 (.800)
NBA Qtrs H 93-45 (.674) 122-16 (.884)
NBA Qtrs V 10-32 (.238) 22-20 (.524)
NBA Prelim all 50-30 (.625) 61-19 (.763)
NBA Prelim H 48-10 (.828) 51-7 (.879)
NBA Prelim V 2-20 (.091) 10-12 (.455)
NHL all all 322-269 (.545) 404-187 (.684)
NHL all H 243-138 (.638) 289-92 (.759)
NHL all V 79-131 (.376) 115-95 (.548)
NHL Finals all 48-25 (.658) 56-17 (.767)
NHL Finals H 36-16 (.692) 44-8 (.846)
NHL Finals V 12-9 (.571) 12-9 (.571)
NHL Semis all 77-65 (.542) 100-42 (.704)
NHL Semis H 60-33 (.645) 72-21 (.774)
NHL Semis V 17-32 (.347) 28-21 (.571)
NHL Qtrs all 101-75 (.574) 121-55 (.688)
NHL Qtrs H 78-41 (.655) 88-31 (.739)
NHL Qtrs V 23-34 (.404) 33-24 (.579)
NHL Prelim all 96-104 (.480) 127-73 (.635)
NHL Prelim H 69-48 (.590) 85-32 (.726)
NHL Prelim V 27-56 (.325) 42-41 (.506)