WhoWins(tm) Best-of-7

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 GREATEST COMEBACK EVER
Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 ANNIHILATIONS
The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

RESOURCES
Societies, books, and other resources.

BEST-OF-7 FEATURES
Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

FAQ
Frequently-asked questions.

SEARCH RESULTS
Related search terms from popular search engines.

PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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HISTORICAL SERIES VICTORY PROBABILITIES (UP 1-GAME-NIL)

Here's what has happened -- in both the series and the following game -- when an MLB/NBA/NHL team led a best-of-7 series 1 game to nil. "Site" means the site (H=home or V=road) where a team played Game 1: For example, the row in which sport=MLB, round=Finals, and site=V refers to MLB teams with a 1-game-nil MLB World Series lead, having played Game 1 on the road; for a second example, the row in which sport=NHL, round=Semis, and site=H refers to NHL teams with a 1-game-nil NHL Stanley Cup Semifinals-round lead, having played Game 1 at home. Theoretical series victory probability for series-leading team = .65625 (based on theoretical game victory probabilities of .5). Table updated through Fall 2013.

sport round site Game 2 rec. series rec.
all all all 661-559 (.542) 867-353 (.711)
all all H 528-293 (.643) 644-177 (.784)
all all V 133-266 (.333) 223-176 (.559)
all Finals all 130-116 (.528) 171-75 (.695)
all Finals H 101-65 (.608) 127-39 (.765)
all Finals V 29-51 (.363) 44-36 (.550)
all Semis all 168-146 (.535) 227-87 (.723)
all Semis H 127-76 (.626) 158-45 (.778)
all Semis V 41-70 (.369) 69-42 (.622)
all Qtrs all 207-157 (.569) 271-93 (.745)
all Qtrs H 174-89 (.662) 215-48 (.817)
all Qtrs V 33-68 (.327) 56-45 (.554)
all Prelim all 156-140 (.527) 198-98 (.669)
all Prelim H 126-63 (.667) 144-45 (.762)
all Prelim V 30-77 (.280) 54-53 (.505)
MLB all all 75-86 (.466) 101-60 (.627)
MLB all H 50-42 (.543) 61-31 (.663)
MLB all V 25-44 (.362) 40-29 (.580)
MLB Finals all 51-54 (.486) 67-38 (.638)
MLB Finals H 37-26 (.587) 43-20 (.683)
MLB Finals V 14-28 (.333) 24-18 (.571)
MLB Semis all 24-32 (.429) 34-22 (.607)
MLB Semis H 13-16 (.448) 18-11 (.621)
MLB Semis V 11-16 (.407) 16-11 (.593)
NBA all all 255-198 (.563) 350-103 (.773)
NBA all H 228-108 (.679) 285-51 (.848)
NBA all V 27-90 (.231) 65-52 (.556)
NBA Finals all 31-36 (.463) 47-20 (.701)
NBA Finals H 28-22 (.560) 39-11 (.780)
NBA Finals V 3-14 (.176) 8-9 (.471)
NBA Semis all 65-49 (.570) 91-23 (.798)
NBA Semis H 53-27 (.663) 67-13 (.838)
NBA Semis V 12-22 (.353) 24-10 (.706)
NBA Qtrs all 103-81 (.560) 146-38 (.793)
NBA Qtrs H 93-47 (.664) 123-17 (.879)
NBA Qtrs V 10-34 (.227) 23-21 (.523)
NBA Prelim all 56-32 (.636) 66-22 (.750)
NBA Prelim H 54-12 (.818) 56-10 (.848)
NBA Prelim V 2-20 (.091) 10-12 (.455)
NHL all all 331-275 (.546) 416-190 (.686)
NHL all H 250-143 (.636) 298-95 (.758)
NHL all V 81-132 (.380) 118-95 (.554)
NHL Finals all 48-26 (.649) 57-17 (.770)
NHL Finals H 36-17 (.679) 45-8 (.849)
NHL Finals V 12-9 (.571) 12-9 (.571)
NHL Semis all 79-65 (.549) 102-42 (.708)
NHL Semis H 61-33 (.649) 73-21 (.777)
NHL Semis V 18-32 (.360) 29-21 (.580)
NHL Qtrs all 104-76 (.578) 125-55 (.694)
NHL Qtrs H 81-42 (.659) 92-31 (.748)
NHL Qtrs V 23-34 (.404) 33-24 (.579)
NHL Prelim all 100-108 (.481) 132-76 (.635)
NHL Prelim H 72-51 (.585) 88-35 (.715)
NHL Prelim V 28-57 (.329) 44-41 (.518)