WhoWins(tm) Best-of-7

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 GREATEST COMEBACK EVER
Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 ANNIHILATIONS
The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

RESOURCES
Societies, books, and other resources.

BEST-OF-7 FEATURES
Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

FAQ
Frequently-asked questions.

SEARCH RESULTS
Related search terms from popular search engines.

PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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HISTORICAL SERIES VICTORY PROBABILITIES (UP 1-GAME-NIL)

Here's what has happened -- in both the series and the following game -- when an MLB/NBA/NHL team led a best-of-7 series 1 game to nil. "Site" means the site (H=home or V=road) where a team played Game 1: For example, the row in which sport=MLB, round=Finals, and site=V refers to MLB teams with a 1-game-nil MLB World Series lead, having played Game 1 on the road; for a second example, the row in which sport=NHL, round=Semis, and site=H refers to NHL teams with a 1-game-nil NHL Stanley Cup Semifinals-round lead, having played Game 1 at home. Theoretical series victory probability for series-leading team = .65625 (based on theoretical game victory probabilities of .5). Table updated through Fall 2022.

sport round site Game 2 rec. series rec.
all all all 818-699 (.539) 1069-448 (.705)
all all H 644-356 (.644) 783-217 (.783)
all all V 174-343 (.337) 286-231 (.553)
all Finals all 143-130 (.524) 189-84 (.692)
all Finals H 113-73 (.608) 141-45 (.758)
all Finals V 30-57 (.345) 48-39 (.552)
all Semis all 198-170 (.538) 260-108 (.707)
all Semis H 149-88 (.629) 179-58 (.755)
all Semis V 49-82 (.374) 81-50 (.618)
all Qtrs all 241-195 (.553) 315-121 (.722)
all Qtrs H 196-105 (.651) 241-60 (.801)
all Qtrs V 45-90 (.333) 74-61 (.548)
all Prelim all 236-204 (.536) 305-135 (.693)
all Prelim H 186-90 (.674) 222-54 (.804)
all Prelim V 50-114 (.305) 83-81 (.506)
MLB all all 89-99 (.473) 121-67 (.644)
MLB all H 60-48 (.556) 74-34 (.685)
MLB all V 29-51 (.363) 47-33 (.588)
MLB Finals all 54-60 (.474) 73-41 (.640)
MLB Finals H 39-29 (.574) 46-22 (.676)
MLB Finals V 15-31 (.326) 27-19 (.587)
MLB Semis all 35-39 (.473) 48-26 (.649)
MLB Semis H 21-19 (.525) 28-12 (.700)
MLB Semis V 14-20 (.412) 20-14 (.588)
NBA all all 334-254 (.568) 442-146 (.752)
NBA all H 294-131 (.692) 360-65 (.847)
NBA all V 40-123 (.245) 82-81 (.503)
NBA Finals all 36-40 (.474) 53-23 (.697)
NBA Finals H 33-25 (.569) 45-13 (.776)
NBA Finals V 3-15 (.167) 8-10 (.444)
NBA Semis all 78-54 (.591) 103-29 (.780)
NBA Semis H 63-29 (.685) 75-17 (.815)
NBA Semis V 15-25 (.375) 28-12 (.700)
NBA Qtrs all 121-99 (.550) 166-54 (.755)
NBA Qtrs H 108-53 (.671) 138-23 (.857)
NBA Qtrs V 13-46 (.220) 28-31 (.475)
NBA Prelim all 99-61 (.619) 120-40 (.750)
NBA Prelim H 90-24 (.789) 102-12 (.895)
NBA Prelim V 9-37 (.196) 18-28 (.391)
NHL all all 395-346 (.533) 506-235 (.683)
NHL all H 290-177 (.621) 349-118 (.747)
NHL all V 105-169 (.383) 157-117 (.573)
NHL Finals all 53-30 (.639) 63-20 (.759)
NHL Finals H 41-19 (.683) 50-10 (.833)
NHL Finals V 12-11 (.522) 13-10 (.565)
NHL Semis all 85-77 (.525) 109-53 (.673)
NHL Semis H 65-40 (.619) 76-29 (.724)
NHL Semis V 20-37 (.351) 33-24 (.579)
NHL Qtrs all 120-96 (.556) 149-67 (.690)
NHL Qtrs H 88-52 (.629) 103-37 (.736)
NHL Qtrs V 32-44 (.421) 46-30 (.605)
NHL Prelim all 137-143 (.489) 185-95 (.661)
NHL Prelim H 96-66 (.593) 120-42 (.741)
NHL Prelim V 41-77 (.347) 65-53 (.551)