WhoWins(tm) Best-of-7

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 GREATEST COMEBACK EVER
Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 ANNIHILATIONS
The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

RESOURCES
Societies, books, and other resources.

BEST-OF-7 FEATURES
Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

FAQ
Frequently-asked questions.

SEARCH RESULTS
Related search terms from popular search engines.

PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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HISTORICAL SERIES VICTORY PROBABILITIES (UP 3-GAMES-1)

Here's what has happened -- in both the series and the following game -- when an MLB/NBA/NHL team led a best-of-7 series 3 games to 1. "Site" means the site (H=home or V=road) where a team played Game 1: For example, the row in which sport=MLB, round=Finals, and site=V refers to MLB teams with a 3-games-1 MLB World Series lead, having played Game 1 on the road; for a second example, the row in which sport=NHL, round=Semis, and site=H refers to NHL teams with a 3-games-1 NHL Stanley Cup Semifinals-round lead, having played Game 1 at home. Theoretical series victory probability for series-leading team = .875 (based on theoretical game victory probabilities of .5). Table updated through Fall 2018.

sport round site Game 5 rec. series rec.
all all all 360-274 (.568) 582-52 (.918)
all all H 273-135 (.669) 383-25 (.939)
all all V 87-139 (.385) 199-27 (.881)
all Finals all 63-51 (.553) 106-8 (.930)
all Finals H 43-29 (.597) 67-5 (.931)
all Finals V 20-22 (.476) 39-3 (.929)
all Semis all 94-69 (.577) 151-12 (.926)
all Semis H 66-33 (.667) 94-5 (.949)
all Semis V 28-36 (.438) 57-7 (.891)
all Qtrs all 115-68 (.628) 172-11 (.940)
all Qtrs H 92-32 (.742) 119-5 (.960)
all Qtrs V 23-36 (.390) 53-6 (.898)
all Prelim all 88-86 (.506) 153-21 (.879)
all Prelim H 72-41 (.637) 103-10 (.912)
all Prelim V 16-45 (.262) 50-11 (.820)
MLB all all 44-42 (.512) 73-13 (.849)
MLB all H 26-23 (.531) 42-7 (.857)
MLB all V 18-19 (.486) 31-6 (.838)
MLB Finals all 26-20 (.565) 40-6 (.870)
MLB Finals H 15-9 (.625) 20-4 (.833)
MLB Finals V 11-11 (.500) 20-2 (.909)
MLB Semis all 18-22 (.450) 33-7 (.825)
MLB Semis H 11-14 (.440) 22-3 (.880)
MLB Semis V 7-8 (.467) 11-4 (.733)
NBA all all 145-99 (.594) 233-11 (.955)
NBA all H 123-42 (.745) 162-3 (.982)
NBA all V 22-57 (.278) 71-8 (.899)
NBA Finals all 18-16 (.529) 33-1 (.971)
NBA Finals H 14-11 (.560) 24-1 (.960)
NBA Finals V 4-5 (.444) 9-0 (1.000)
NBA Semis all 29-26 (.527) 51-4 (.927)
NBA Semis H 21-10 (.677) 30-1 (.968)
NBA Semis V 8-16 (.333) 21-3 (.875)
NBA Qtrs all 64-32 (.667) 92-4 (.958)
NBA Qtrs H 56-14 (.800) 69-1 (.986)
NBA Qtrs V 8-18 (.308) 23-3 (.885)
NBA Prelim all 34-25 (.576) 57-2 (.966)
NBA Prelim H 32-7 (.821) 39-0 (1.000)
NBA Prelim V 2-18 (.100) 18-2 (.900)
NHL all all 171-133 (.563) 276-28 (.908)
NHL all H 124-70 (.639) 179-15 (.923)
NHL all V 47-63 (.427) 97-13 (.882)
NHL Finals all 19-15 (.559) 33-1 (.971)
NHL Finals H 14-9 (.609) 23-0 (1.000)
NHL Finals V 5-6 (.455) 10-1 (.909)
NHL Semis all 47-21 (.691) 67-1 (.985)
NHL Semis H 34-9 (.791) 42-1 (.977)
NHL Semis V 13-12 (.520) 25-0 (1.000)
NHL Qtrs all 51-36 (.586) 80-7 (.920)
NHL Qtrs H 36-18 (.667) 50-4 (.926)
NHL Qtrs V 15-18 (.455) 30-3 (.909)
NHL Prelim all 54-61 (.470) 96-19 (.835)
NHL Prelim H 40-34 (.541) 64-10 (.865)
NHL Prelim V 14-27 (.341) 32-9 (.780)