WhoWins(tm) Best-of-7

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 GREATEST COMEBACK EVER
Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 ANNIHILATIONS
The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

RESOURCES
Societies, books, and other resources.

BEST-OF-7 FEATURES
Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

FAQ
Frequently-asked questions.

SEARCH RESULTS
Related search terms from popular search engines.

PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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HISTORICAL SERIES VICTORY PROBABILITIES (UP 3-GAMES-1)

Here's what has happened -- in both the series and the following game -- when an MLB/NBA/NHL team led a best-of-7 series 3 games to 1. "Site" means the site (H=home or V=road) where a team played Game 1: For example, the row in which sport=MLB, round=Finals, and site=V refers to MLB teams with a 3-games-1 MLB World Series lead, having played Game 1 on the road; for a second example, the row in which sport=NHL, round=Semis, and site=H refers to NHL teams with a 3-games-1 NHL Stanley Cup Semifinals-round lead, having played Game 1 at home. Theoretical series victory probability for series-leading team = .875 (based on theoretical game victory probabilities of .5). Table updated through Fall 2013.

sport round site Game 5 rec. series rec.
all all all 320-244 (.567) 519-45 (.920)
all all H 240-119 (.669) 338-21 (.942)
all all V 80-125 (.390) 181-24 (.883)
all Finals all 57-48 (.543) 99-6 (.943)
all Finals H 38-26 (.594) 61-3 (.953)
all Finals V 19-22 (.463) 38-3 (.927)
all Semis all 87-64 (.576) 140-11 (.927)
all Semis H 62-32 (.660) 89-5 (.947)
all Semis V 25-32 (.439) 51-6 (.895)
all Qtrs all 106-60 (.639) 158-8 (.952)
all Qtrs H 83-30 (.735) 109-4 (.965)
all Qtrs V 23-30 (.434) 49-4 (.925)
all Prelim all 70-72 (.493) 122-20 (.859)
all Prelim H 57-31 (.648) 79-9 (.898)
all Prelim V 13-41 (.241) 43-11 (.796)
MLB all all 38-40 (.487) 66-12 (.846)
MLB all H 21-21 (.500) 36-6 (.857)
MLB all V 17-19 (.472) 30-6 (.833)
MLB Finals all 24-19 (.558) 38-5 (.884)
MLB Finals H 13-8 (.619) 18-3 (.857)
MLB Finals V 11-11 (.500) 20-2 (.909)
MLB Semis all 14-21 (.400) 28-7 (.800)
MLB Semis H 8-13 (.381) 18-3 (.857)
MLB Semis V 6-8 (.429) 10-4 (.714)
NBA all all 126-91 (.581) 209-8 (.963)
NBA all H 106-39 (.731) 143-2 (.986)
NBA all V 20-52 (.278) 66-6 (.917)
NBA Finals all 16-15 (.516) 31-0 (1.000)
NBA Finals H 12-10 (.545) 22-0 (1.000)
NBA Finals V 4-5 (.444) 9-0 (1.000)
NBA Semis all 27-24 (.529) 48-3 (.941)
NBA Semis H 20-10 (.667) 29-1 (.967)
NBA Semis V 7-14 (.333) 19-2 (.905)
NBA Qtrs all 58-30 (.659) 85-3 (.966)
NBA Qtrs H 50-13 (.794) 62-1 (.984)
NBA Qtrs V 8-17 (.320) 23-2 (.920)
NBA Prelim all 25-22 (.532) 45-2 (.957)
NBA Prelim H 24-6 (.800) 30-0 (1.000)
NBA Prelim V 1-16 (.059) 15-2 (.882)
NHL all all 156-113 (.580) 244-25 (.907)
NHL all H 113-59 (.657) 159-13 (.924)
NHL all V 43-54 (.443) 85-12 (.876)
NHL Finals all 17-14 (.548) 30-1 (.968)
NHL Finals H 13-8 (.619) 21-0 (1.000)
NHL Finals V 4-6 (.400) 9-1 (.900)
NHL Semis all 46-19 (.708) 64-1 (.985)
NHL Semis H 34-9 (.791) 42-1 (.977)
NHL Semis V 12-10 (.545) 22-0 (1.000)
NHL Qtrs all 48-30 (.615) 73-5 (.936)
NHL Qtrs H 33-17 (.660) 47-3 (.940)
NHL Qtrs V 15-13 (.536) 26-2 (.929)
NHL Prelim all 45-50 (.474) 77-18 (.811)
NHL Prelim H 33-25 (.569) 49-9 (.845)
NHL Prelim V 12-25 (.324) 28-9 (.757)