WhoWins(tm) Best-of-7

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 GREATEST COMEBACK EVER
Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 ANNIHILATIONS
The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

RESOURCES
Societies, books, and other resources.

BEST-OF-7 FEATURES
Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

FAQ
Frequently-asked questions.

SEARCH RESULTS
Related search terms from popular search engines.

PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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HISTORICAL SERIES VICTORY PROBABILITIES (UP 3-GAMES-1)

Here's what has happened -- in both the series and the following game -- when an MLB/NBA/NHL team led a best-of-7 series 3 games to 1. "Site" means the site (H=home or V=road) where a team played Game 1: For example, the row in which sport=MLB, round=Finals, and site=V refers to MLB teams with a 3-games-1 MLB World Series lead, having played Game 1 on the road; for a second example, the row in which sport=NHL, round=Semis, and site=H refers to NHL teams with a 3-games-1 NHL Stanley Cup Semifinals-round lead, having played Game 1 at home. Theoretical series victory probability for series-leading team = .875 (based on theoretical game victory probabilities of .5). Table updated through Fall 2016.

sport round site Game 5 rec. series rec.
all all all 341-267 (.561) 556-52 (.914)
all all H 258-131 (.663) 364-25 (.936)
all all V 83-136 (.379) 192-27 (.877)
all Finals all 60-51 (.541) 103-8 (.928)
all Finals H 41-29 (.586) 65-5 (.929)
all Finals V 19-22 (.463) 38-3 (.927)
all Semis all 90-69 (.566) 147-12 (.925)
all Semis H 64-33 (.660) 92-5 (.948)
all Semis V 26-36 (.419) 55-7 (.887)
all Qtrs all 111-66 (.627) 166-11 (.938)
all Qtrs H 88-32 (.733) 115-5 (.958)
all Qtrs V 23-34 (.404) 51-6 (.895)
all Prelim all 80-81 (.497) 140-21 (.870)
all Prelim H 65-37 (.637) 92-10 (.902)
all Prelim V 15-44 (.254) 48-11 (.814)
MLB all all 41-42 (.494) 70-13 (.843)
MLB all H 23-23 (.500) 39-7 (.848)
MLB all V 18-19 (.486) 31-6 (.838)
MLB Finals all 25-20 (.556) 39-6 (.867)
MLB Finals H 14-9 (.609) 19-4 (.826)
MLB Finals V 11-11 (.500) 20-2 (.909)
MLB Semis all 16-22 (.421) 31-7 (.816)
MLB Semis H 9-14 (.391) 20-3 (.870)
MLB Semis V 7-8 (.467) 11-4 (.733)
NBA all all 136-98 (.581) 223-11 (.953)
NBA all H 115-42 (.732) 154-3 (.981)
NBA all V 21-56 (.273) 69-8 (.896)
NBA Finals all 17-16 (.515) 32-1 (.970)
NBA Finals H 13-11 (.542) 23-1 (.958)
NBA Finals V 4-5 (.444) 9-0 (1.000)
NBA Semis all 28-26 (.519) 50-4 (.926)
NBA Semis H 21-10 (.677) 30-1 (.968)
NBA Semis V 7-16 (.304) 20-3 (.870)
NBA Qtrs all 61-32 (.656) 89-4 (.957)
NBA Qtrs H 53-14 (.791) 66-1 (.985)
NBA Qtrs V 8-18 (.308) 23-3 (.885)
NBA Prelim all 30-24 (.556) 52-2 (.963)
NBA Prelim H 28-7 (.800) 35-0 (1.000)
NBA Prelim V 2-17 (.105) 17-2 (.895)
NHL all all 164-127 (.564) 263-28 (.904)
NHL all H 120-66 (.645) 171-15 (.919)
NHL all V 44-61 (.419) 92-13 (.876)
NHL Finals all 18-15 (.545) 32-1 (.970)
NHL Finals H 14-9 (.609) 23-0 (1.000)
NHL Finals V 4-6 (.400) 9-1 (.900)
NHL Semis all 46-21 (.687) 66-1 (.985)
NHL Semis H 34-9 (.791) 42-1 (.977)
NHL Semis V 12-12 (.500) 24-0 (1.000)
NHL Qtrs all 50-34 (.595) 77-7 (.917)
NHL Qtrs H 35-18 (.660) 49-4 (.925)
NHL Qtrs V 15-16 (.484) 28-3 (.903)
NHL Prelim all 50-57 (.467) 88-19 (.822)
NHL Prelim H 37-30 (.552) 57-10 (.851)
NHL Prelim V 13-27 (.325) 31-9 (.775)