WhoWins(tm) Best-of-7

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 GREATEST COMEBACK EVER
Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 ANNIHILATIONS
The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

RESOURCES
Societies, books, and other resources.

BEST-OF-7 FEATURES
Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

FAQ
Frequently-asked questions.

SEARCH RESULTS
Related search terms from popular search engines.

PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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HISTORICAL SERIES VICTORY PROBABILITIES (UP 3-GAMES-1)

Here's what has happened -- in both the series and the following game -- when an MLB/NBA/NHL team led a best-of-7 series 3 games to 1. "Site" means the site (H=home or V=road) where a team played Game 1: For example, the row in which sport=MLB, round=Finals, and site=V refers to MLB teams with a 3-games-1 MLB World Series lead, having played Game 1 on the road; for a second example, the row in which sport=NHL, round=Semis, and site=H refers to NHL teams with a 3-games-1 NHL Stanley Cup Semifinals-round lead, having played Game 1 at home. Theoretical series victory probability for series-leading team = .875 (based on theoretical game victory probabilities of .5). Table updated through Fall 2014.

sport round site Game 5 rec. series rec.
all all all 327-251 (.566) 531-47 (.919)
all all H 245-122 (.668) 344-23 (.937)
all all V 82-129 (.389) 187-24 (.886)
all Finals all 59-48 (.551) 101-6 (.944)
all Finals H 40-26 (.606) 63-3 (.955)
all Finals V 19-22 (.463) 38-3 (.927)
all Semis all 88-67 (.568) 144-11 (.929)
all Semis H 62-32 (.660) 89-5 (.947)
all Semis V 26-35 (.426) 55-6 (.902)
all Qtrs all 108-62 (.635) 161-9 (.947)
all Qtrs H 85-32 (.726) 112-5 (.957)
all Qtrs V 23-30 (.434) 49-4 (.925)
all Prelim all 72-74 (.493) 125-21 (.856)
all Prelim H 58-32 (.644) 80-10 (.889)
all Prelim V 14-42 (.250) 45-11 (.804)
MLB all all 39-40 (.494) 67-12 (.848)
MLB all H 21-21 (.500) 36-6 (.857)
MLB all V 18-19 (.486) 31-6 (.838)
MLB Finals all 24-19 (.558) 38-5 (.884)
MLB Finals H 13-8 (.619) 18-3 (.857)
MLB Finals V 11-11 (.500) 20-2 (.909)
MLB Semis all 15-21 (.417) 29-7 (.806)
MLB Semis H 8-13 (.381) 18-3 (.857)
MLB Semis V 7-8 (.467) 11-4 (.733)
NBA all all 130-94 (.580) 216-8 (.964)
NBA all H 109-40 (.732) 147-2 (.987)
NBA all V 21-54 (.280) 69-6 (.920)
NBA Finals all 17-15 (.531) 32-0 (1.000)
NBA Finals H 13-10 (.565) 23-0 (1.000)
NBA Finals V 4-5 (.444) 9-0 (1.000)
NBA Semis all 27-25 (.519) 49-3 (.942)
NBA Semis H 20-10 (.667) 29-1 (.967)
NBA Semis V 7-15 (.318) 20-2 (.909)
NBA Qtrs all 60-31 (.659) 88-3 (.967)
NBA Qtrs H 52-14 (.788) 65-1 (.985)
NBA Qtrs V 8-17 (.320) 23-2 (.920)
NBA Prelim all 26-23 (.531) 47-2 (.959)
NBA Prelim H 24-6 (.800) 30-0 (1.000)
NBA Prelim V 2-17 (.105) 17-2 (.895)
NHL all all 158-117 (.575) 248-27 (.902)
NHL all H 115-61 (.653) 161-15 (.915)
NHL all V 43-56 (.434) 87-12 (.879)
NHL Finals all 18-14 (.563) 31-1 (.969)
NHL Finals H 14-8 (.636) 22-0 (1.000)
NHL Finals V 4-6 (.400) 9-1 (.900)
NHL Semis all 46-21 (.687) 66-1 (.985)
NHL Semis H 34-9 (.791) 42-1 (.977)
NHL Semis V 12-12 (.500) 24-0 (1.000)
NHL Qtrs all 48-31 (.608) 73-6 (.924)
NHL Qtrs H 33-18 (.647) 47-4 (.922)
NHL Qtrs V 15-13 (.536) 26-2 (.929)
NHL Prelim all 46-51 (.474) 78-19 (.804)
NHL Prelim H 34-26 (.567) 50-10 (.833)
NHL Prelim V 12-25 (.324) 28-9 (.757)