WhoWins(tm) Best-of-7

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 GREATEST COMEBACK EVER
Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 ANNIHILATIONS
The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

RESOURCES
Societies, books, and other resources.

BEST-OF-7 FEATURES
Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

FAQ
Frequently-asked questions.

SEARCH RESULTS
Related search terms from popular search engines.

PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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HISTORICAL SERIES VICTORY PROBABILITIES (UP 3-GAMES-1)

Here's what has happened -- in both the series and the following game -- when an MLB/NBA/NHL team led a best-of-7 series 3 games to 1. "Site" means the site (H=home or V=road) where a team played Game 1: For example, the row in which sport=MLB, round=Finals, and site=V refers to MLB teams with a 3-games-1 MLB World Series lead, having played Game 1 on the road; for a second example, the row in which sport=NHL, round=Semis, and site=H refers to NHL teams with a 3-games-1 NHL Stanley Cup Semifinals-round lead, having played Game 1 at home. Theoretical series victory probability for series-leading team = .875 (based on theoretical game victory probabilities of .5). Table updated through Fall 2020.

sport round site Game 5 rec. series rec.
all all all 378-290 (.566) 612-56 (.916)
all all H 287-145 (.664) 406-26 (.940)
all all V 91-145 (.386) 206-30 (.873)
all Finals all 63-54 (.538) 109-8 (.932)
all Finals H 43-32 (.573) 70-5 (.933)
all Finals V 20-22 (.476) 39-3 (.929)
all Semis all 96-74 (.565) 157-13 (.924)
all Semis H 67-36 (.650) 98-5 (.951)
all Semis V 29-38 (.433) 59-8 (.881)
all Qtrs all 119-72 (.623) 179-12 (.937)
all Qtrs H 95-34 (.736) 123-6 (.953)
all Qtrs V 24-38 (.387) 56-6 (.903)
all Prelim all 100-90 (.526) 167-23 (.879)
all Prelim H 82-43 (.656) 115-10 (.920)
all Prelim V 18-47 (.277) 52-13 (.800)
MLB all all 44-45 (.494) 75-14 (.843)
MLB all H 26-25 (.510) 44-7 (.863)
MLB all V 18-20 (.474) 31-7 (.816)
MLB Finals all 26-20 (.565) 40-6 (.870)
MLB Finals H 15-9 (.625) 20-4 (.833)
MLB Finals V 11-11 (.500) 20-2 (.909)
MLB Semis all 18-25 (.419) 35-8 (.814)
MLB Semis H 11-16 (.407) 24-3 (.889)
MLB Semis V 7-9 (.438) 11-5 (.688)
NBA all all 155-105 (.596) 247-13 (.950)
NBA all H 132-46 (.742) 174-4 (.978)
NBA all V 23-59 (.280) 73-9 (.890)
NBA Finals all 18-18 (.500) 35-1 (.972)
NBA Finals H 14-13 (.519) 26-1 (.963)
NBA Finals V 4-5 (.444) 9-0 (1.000)
NBA Semis all 30-27 (.526) 53-4 (.930)
NBA Semis H 22-10 (.688) 31-1 (.969)
NBA Semis V 8-17 (.320) 22-3 (.880)
NBA Qtrs all 67-33 (.670) 95-5 (.950)
NBA Qtrs H 58-15 (.795) 71-2 (.973)
NBA Qtrs V 9-18 (.333) 24-3 (.889)
NBA Prelim all 40-27 (.597) 64-3 (.955)
NBA Prelim H 38-8 (.826) 46-0 (1.000)
NBA Prelim V 2-19 (.095) 18-3 (.857)
NHL all all 179-140 (.561) 290-29 (.909)
NHL all H 129-74 (.635) 188-15 (.926)
NHL all V 50-66 (.431) 102-14 (.879)
NHL Finals all 19-16 (.543) 34-1 (.971)
NHL Finals H 14-10 (.583) 24-0 (1.000)
NHL Finals V 5-6 (.455) 10-1 (.909)
NHL Semis all 48-22 (.686) 69-1 (.986)
NHL Semis H 34-10 (.773) 43-1 (.977)
NHL Semis V 14-12 (.538) 26-0 (1.000)
NHL Qtrs all 52-39 (.571) 84-7 (.923)
NHL Qtrs H 37-19 (.661) 52-4 (.929)
NHL Qtrs V 15-20 (.429) 32-3 (.914)
NHL Prelim all 60-63 (.488) 103-20 (.837)
NHL Prelim H 44-35 (.557) 69-10 (.873)
NHL Prelim V 16-28 (.364) 34-10 (.773)