WhoWins(tm) Best-of-7

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 GREATEST COMEBACK EVER
Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 ANNIHILATIONS
The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

RESOURCES
Societies, books, and other resources.

BEST-OF-7 FEATURES
Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

FAQ
Frequently-asked questions.

SEARCH RESULTS
Related search terms from popular search engines.

PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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HISTORICAL SERIES VICTORY PROBABILITIES (UP 3-GAMES-1)

Here's what has happened -- in both the series and the following game -- when an MLB/NBA/NHL team led a best-of-7 series 3 games to 1. "Site" means the site (H=home or V=road) where a team played Game 1: For example, the row in which sport=MLB, round=Finals, and site=V refers to MLB teams with a 3-games-1 MLB World Series lead, having played Game 1 on the road; for a second example, the row in which sport=NHL, round=Semis, and site=H refers to NHL teams with a 3-games-1 NHL Stanley Cup Semifinals-round lead, having played Game 1 at home. Theoretical series victory probability for series-leading team = .875 (based on theoretical game victory probabilities of .5). Table updated through Fall 2019.

sport round site Game 5 rec. series rec.
all all all 366-278 (.568) 591-53 (.918)
all all H 278-138 (.668) 391-25 (.940)
all all V 88-140 (.386) 200-28 (.877)
all Finals all 63-52 (.548) 107-8 (.930)
all Finals H 43-30 (.589) 68-5 (.932)
all Finals V 20-22 (.476) 39-3 (.929)
all Semis all 94-70 (.573) 152-12 (.927)
all Semis H 66-34 (.660) 95-5 (.950)
all Semis V 28-36 (.438) 57-7 (.891)
all Qtrs all 116-68 (.630) 173-11 (.940)
all Qtrs H 93-32 (.744) 120-5 (.960)
all Qtrs V 23-36 (.390) 53-6 (.898)
all Prelim all 93-88 (.514) 159-22 (.878)
all Prelim H 76-42 (.644) 108-10 (.915)
all Prelim V 17-46 (.270) 51-12 (.810)
MLB all all 44-43 (.506) 74-13 (.851)
MLB all H 26-24 (.520) 43-7 (.860)
MLB all V 18-19 (.486) 31-6 (.838)
MLB Finals all 26-20 (.565) 40-6 (.870)
MLB Finals H 15-9 (.625) 20-4 (.833)
MLB Finals V 11-11 (.500) 20-2 (.909)
MLB Semis all 18-23 (.439) 34-7 (.829)
MLB Semis H 11-15 (.423) 23-3 (.885)
MLB Semis V 7-8 (.467) 11-4 (.733)
NBA all all 150-101 (.598) 240-11 (.956)
NBA all H 128-44 (.744) 169-3 (.983)
NBA all V 22-57 (.278) 71-8 (.899)
NBA Finals all 18-17 (.514) 34-1 (.971)
NBA Finals H 14-12 (.538) 25-1 (.962)
NBA Finals V 4-5 (.444) 9-0 (1.000)
NBA Semis all 29-26 (.527) 51-4 (.927)
NBA Semis H 21-10 (.677) 30-1 (.968)
NBA Semis V 8-16 (.333) 21-3 (.875)
NBA Qtrs all 65-32 (.670) 93-4 (.959)
NBA Qtrs H 57-14 (.803) 70-1 (.986)
NBA Qtrs V 8-18 (.308) 23-3 (.885)
NBA Prelim all 38-26 (.594) 62-2 (.969)
NBA Prelim H 36-8 (.818) 44-0 (1.000)
NBA Prelim V 2-18 (.100) 18-2 (.900)
NHL all all 172-134 (.562) 277-29 (.905)
NHL all H 124-70 (.639) 179-15 (.923)
NHL all V 48-64 (.429) 98-14 (.875)
NHL Finals all 19-15 (.559) 33-1 (.971)
NHL Finals H 14-9 (.609) 23-0 (1.000)
NHL Finals V 5-6 (.455) 10-1 (.909)
NHL Semis all 47-21 (.691) 67-1 (.985)
NHL Semis H 34-9 (.791) 42-1 (.977)
NHL Semis V 13-12 (.520) 25-0 (1.000)
NHL Qtrs all 51-36 (.586) 80-7 (.920)
NHL Qtrs H 36-18 (.667) 50-4 (.926)
NHL Qtrs V 15-18 (.455) 30-3 (.909)
NHL Prelim all 55-62 (.470) 97-20 (.829)
NHL Prelim H 40-34 (.541) 64-10 (.865)
NHL Prelim V 15-28 (.349) 33-10 (.767)