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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
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FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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2026 NHL Semifinals round - Series 1630.
Vegas Golden Knights vs Colorado Avalanche

Schedule and 2025-26 Results
Regular Season Records: Colorado 55-16-11=121pts, Vegas 39-26-17=95pts
Game 1 on Wednesday, 20 May: Vegas wins at Colorado, 4-goals-2
Game 2 on Friday, 22 May: Vegas wins at Colorado, 3-goals-1
Game 3 on Sunday, 24 May: Colorado loses at Vegas, 5-goals-3
Game 4 on Tuesday, 26 May: Colorado at Vegas
Game 5* on Thursday, 28 May: Vegas at Colorado
Game 6* on Saturday, 30 May: Colorado at Vegas
Game 7* on Monday, 01 June: Vegas at Colorado
* if needed

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading 3-games-nil:
Ignoring win order; ignoring site order: The team leading 3-games-nil irrespective of site order (Vegas) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2026 NBA/NHL Quarterfinals round:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 416-5 (.988)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Semifinals round: 100-1 (.990)
series record, NHL only, all rounds: 212-4 (.981)
series record, NHL only, Semifinals round: 48-0 (1.000)
Game 4 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 264-157 (.627)
Game 4 record, all best-of-7 sports, Semifinals round: 59-42 (.584)
Game 4 record, NHL only, all rounds: 132-84 (.611)
Game 4 record, NHL only, Semifinals round: 28-20 (.583)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1640 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2026 NBA/NHL Quarterfinals round. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading 3-games-nil @ VVH:
Ignoring win order; considering site order: The team leading 3-games-nil with site order VVH (Vegas) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2026 NBA/NHL Quarterfinals round:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 94-1 (.989)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Semifinals round: 32-0 (1.000)
series record, NHL only, all rounds: 56-1 (.982)
series record, NHL only, Semifinals round: 12-0 (1.000)
Game 4 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 66-29 (.695)
Game 4 record, all best-of-7 sports, Semifinals round: 21-11 (.656)
Game 4 record, NHL only, all rounds: 36-21 (.632)
Game 4 record, NHL only, Semifinals round: 7-5 (.583)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1640 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2026 NBA/NHL Quarterfinals round. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 3: The Vegas Golden Knights hosted and defeated the Colorado Avalanche 5-goals-3 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1630 lead of 3-games-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-nil, the Vegas Golden Knights have a series record of 3-0 and a Game 4 record of 1-2. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-nil, the Colorado Avalanche have a series record of 0-3 and a Game 4 record of 1-2. Series 1630 becomes the 49th best-of-7 NHL Semifinals playoff series, the 217th best-of-7 NHL playoff series (all rounds), and the 423rd best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series (all rounds) to begin with a 3-games-nil win order; the Colorado Avalanche will strive to become the fifth NHL team and the sixth MLB/NBA/NHL team to surmount that deficit for a 4-games-3 series victory. The Vegas Golden Knights trailed the visiting Colorado Avalanche in series 1630 Game 3 by three goals as late as 0:18 into the second period but prevailed: In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff games from 1939 through 2025, inclusive, home teams down three goals as late as 0:18 into the second period had a game record of only 4-79 (.048) - the Vegas Golden Knights thus achieve a grade-A (.000 - .099) in-game comeback against the visiting Colorado Avalanche.

After Game 2: The Vegas Golden Knights visited and defeated the Colorado Avalanche 3-goals-1 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1630 lead of 2-games-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Vegas Golden Knights have a series record of 4-1 and a Game 3 record of 3-2. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Colorado Avalanche have a series record of 1-5 (with an active five-series losing streak) and a Game 3 record of 3-3. With their series 1630 Game 2 victory, the Vegas Golden Knights end their four-Game 2 losing streak (irrespective of Game 1 outcome) in best-of-7 NHL playoff series. Upon opening a best-of-7 NHL playoff series with a WW @ VV win/site order, the Vegas Golden Knights have a 0-1 series record, having lost series 1555 to the Dallas Stars in the 2024 NHL Preliminary round. In best-of-7 NHL Semifinals series, teams such as the Vegas Golden Knights in series 1630 with a WW @ VV win/site order have a 19-series winning streak; the sole NHL Semifinals series in which a team with a WW @ VV win/site order lost the series was series 53, in the 1945 NHL Semifinals by the Boston Bruins against the ultimately victorious Detroit Red Wings. The Vegas Golden Knights trailed their host Colorado Avalanche by one goal as late as 9:14 into the third period, but won: In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff games from 1939 through 2025, inclusive, road teams down one goal as late as 9:14 into the third period had a game record of only 133-714 (.157) - the Vegas Golden Knights thus achieve a grade-B (.100 - .199) in-game comeback in their series 1629 Game 2 in Colorado over the Avalanche.

After Game 1: The Vegas Golden Knights visited and defeated the Colorado Avalanche 4-goals-2 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1630 lead of 1-game-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Vegas Golden Knights have a series record of 10-3 and a Game 2 record of 5-8. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Colorado Avalanche have a series record of 6-10 and a Game 2 record of 10-6. The series 1630 Game 1 loss by the Colorado Avalanche breaks a four-Game 1 winning streak in best-of-7 NHL playoff Game 1s by Colorado. In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff series since 1939, inclusive, road teams winning Game 1 by a 4-goals-2 score (such as Vegas in series 1630) had a 14-8 (.636) series record.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2025-26 NHL regular season, the Colorado Avalanche finished 26 points ahead of the Vegas Golden Knights. From 1939 through the 2026 NHL Quarterfinals round, when NHL teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by 26 regular-season points, they have posted a best-of-7 playoff series record of 17-1 (.944) in those series against those opponents. Best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1630 is the 48th best-of-7 NHL playoff series for the Colorado Avalanche, and the 21st for the Vegas Golden Knights. In best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Colorado Avalanche have an all-rounds series record of 29-18, a Semifinals-round series record of 3-4, and a Game 1 record of 31-16 (with an active four-Game 1 winning streak), while the Vegas Golden Knights have an all-rounds series record of 14-6, a Semifinals-round series record of 2-2, and a Game 1 record of 13-7. Series 1630 is the second best-of-7 NHL playoff series meeting between the Colorado Avalanche and the Vegas Golden Knights. In their only previous best-of-7 NHL playoff series meeting, Vegas defeated Colorado in series 1462, in the 2021 NHL Quarterfinals. In best-of-7 NHL playoff series history, teams such as the Colorado Avalanche which led their series opponents by 26 regular-season points went on to win ten NHL championships (the latest of which was 2001, in which the Colorado Avalanche in series 833 led their 2001 NHL Quarterfinals opponent Los Angeles Kings by 26 regular-season points).