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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 GREATEST COMEBACK EVER
Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2026 NHL Semifinals round - Series 1629.
Montreal Canadiens vs Carolina Hurricanes

Schedule and 2025-26 Results
Regular Season Records: Carolina 53-22-7=113pts, Montreal 48-24-10=106pts
Game 1 on Thursday, 21 May: Montreal wins at Carolina, 6-goals-2
Game 2 on Saturday, 23 May: Montreal loses at Carolina, 3-goals-2(OT)
Game 3 on Monday, 25 May: Carolina wins at Montreal, 3-goals-2(OT)
Game 4 on Wednesday, 27 May: Carolina wins at Montreal, 4-goals-nil
Game 5 on Friday, 29 May: Montreal loses at Carolina, 6-goals-1

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 5: The Carolina Hurricanes hosted and bested the Montreal Canadiens 6-goals-1 to complete a 4-games-1 best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1629 victory. With the series 1629 win, the Carolina Hurricanes improve their best-of-7 NHL playoff series record to 21-11 overall and 3-4 in the Semifinals round. With the series 1629 loss, the Montreal Canadiens see their best-of-7 NHL playoff series record fall to 82-45 overall and 28-14 in the Semifinals round. The win order for the victorious Carolina Hurricanes in series 1629 was LWWWW: Series 1629 thus becomes the 12th NHL Semifinals-round series, the 44th NHL series (all rounds), and the 79th MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow that win order to completion. With their series 1629 victory, the Carolina Hurricanes snap a four-series losing streak in best-of-7 NHL Semifinals series. Through the 2026 NHL Semifinals, the Carolina Hurricanes now have a 12-1 total game record in the 2026 NHL playoffs - the best such record since the NHL adopted four rounds of best-of-7 playoff series beginning in 1987: Eight team-seasons previously posted 12-2 game records through the best-of-7 NHL Preliminary, Quarterfinals, and Semifinals series rounds (the Edmonton Oilers were first, both in 1987 and 1988; the Colorado Avalanche were the most recent, in 2022).

After Game 4: The Carolina Hurricanes visited and shut out the Montreal Canadiens 4-goals-nil to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1629 lead of 3-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Carolina Hurricanes have a series record of 9-0 and a Game 5 record of 5-4 (with an active four-Game 5 winning streak). When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Montreal Canadiens have a series record of 3-20 and a Game 5 record of 11-12. In best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, teams posting a LWWW @ HHVV win/site order (such as Carolina in series 1629) have an active seven-series winning streak; the last team to open LWWW @ HHVV but lose the series was the Toronto Maple Leafs in series 1458, in the 2021 NHL Preliminary round - to the Montreal Canadiens (who now obviously wish to follow the precedent set by their 2021 predecessors in series 1458). Montreal also accomplished the series comeback against the LWWW @ HHVV win/site order by their best-of-7 NHL playoff series opponent in series 1089, over the Washington Capitals in the 2010 NHL Preliminary round; Montreal is the only MLB/NBA/NHL team to surmount the LWWW @ HHVV opening by the leading opponent twice.

After Game 3: The Carolina Hurricanes visited and defeated the Montreal Canadiens 3-goals-2(OT) to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1629 lead of 2-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Carolina Hurricanes have a series record of 10-2 (with an active four-series winning streak) and a Game 4 record of 7-5 (with an active four-Game 4 winning streak). When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Montreal Canadiens have a series record of 8-21 and a Game 4 record of 13-16 (with an active six-Game 4 losing streak). Opening a best-of-7 NHL playoff series LWW @ HHV (as the Carolina Hurricanes have done in series 1629), Carolina has a 1-1 series record, defeating the Toronto Maple Leafs in series 860 in the 2002 NHL Semifinals and losing to the Boston Bruins in series 775 in the 1999 NHL Preliminary round. Opening such a series WLL @ VVH (as the Montreal Canadiens have done in series 1629), Montreal has a 2-0 series record, defeating the Toronto Maple Leafs in series 1458 in the 2021 NHL Preliminary round and defeating the Washington Capitals in series 1089 in the 2010 NHL Preliminary round.

After Game 2: The Carolina Hurricanes hosted and outscored the Montreal Canadiens 3-goals-2(OT) to tie best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1629 at 1-game-all. When tied 1-game-all in a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, the Carolina Hurricanes have a series record of 6-3 and a Game 3 record of 4-5, while the Montreal Canadiens have a series record of 26-19 (with an active four-series winning streak) and a Game 3 record of 29-16. Tied LW @ HH in a best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Carolina Hurricanes have a 2-1 series record. Tied WL @ VV in a best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Montreal Canadiens have a perfect 7-0 series record.

After Game 1: The Montreal Canadiens visited and bested the Carolina Hurricanes 6-goals-2 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1629 lead of 1-game-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Montreal Canadiens have a series record of 64-11 (with an active six-series winning streak) and a Game 2 record of 56-19. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Carolina Hurricanes have a series record of 6-9 (with an active six-series losing streak) and a Game 2 record of 6-9 (with an active four-Game 2 losing streak). Of the eleven series losses by the Montreal Canadiens in the wake of a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 1-game-nil lead, one was to the Carolina Hurricanes (in series 958, in the 2006 NHL Preliminary round; Carolina would go on to win the 2006 NHL championship). In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff series beginning in 1939, inclusive, teams such as the Montreal Canadiens in series 1629 which win Game 1 by four goals on the road had a 7-8 (.467) series record.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2025-26 NHL regular season, the Carolina Hurricanes finished seven points ahead of the Montreal Canadiens. From 1939 through the 2026 NHL Quarterfinals round, when NHL teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by seven regular-season points, they have posted a best-of-7 playoff series record of 22-17 (.564) in those series against those opponents. Best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1629 is the 32nd best-of-7 NHL playoff series for the Carolina Hurricanes, and the 127th for the Montreal Canadiens. In best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Carolina Hurricanes have an all-rounds series record of 20-11, a Semifinals-round series record of 2-4 (with an active four-Semifinals series losing streak), and a Game 1 record of 16-15, while the Montreal Canadiens have an all-rounds series record of 82-44, a Semifinals-round series record of 28-13, and a Game 1 record of 75-51. Series 1629 is the third best-of-7 NHL playoff series meeting between the Carolina Hurricanes and the Montreal Canadiens. Carolina defeated Montreal in both of their previous two best-of-7 NHL playoff series meetings (in series 856 in the 2002 NHL Quarterfinals; in series 958 in the 2006 NHL Preliminary round - in each case, Carolina reached the NHL Finals, winning the NHL championship in 2006). In their last ten best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Carolina Hurricanes have seen their Game 1 outcome presage their series outcome (seven wins, three losses).