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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 GREATEST COMEBACK EVER
Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2026 NHL Preliminary round - Series 1618.
Montreal Canadiens vs Tampa Bay Lightning

Schedule and 2025-26 Results
Regular Season Records: Tampa Bay 50-26-6=106pts, Montreal 48-24-10=106pts
Game 1 on Sunday, 19 April: Montreal wins at Tampa Bay, 4-goals-3(OT)
Game 2 on Tuesday, 21 April: Montreal loses at Tampa Bay, 3-goals-2(OT)
Game 3 on Friday, 24 April: Tampa Bay loses at Montreal, 3-goals-2(OT)
Game 4 on Sunday, 26 April: Tampa Bay wins at Montreal, 3-goals-2
Game 5 on Wednesday, 29 April: Montreal wins at Tampa Bay, 3-goals-2
Game 6 on Friday, 01 May: Tampa Bay wins at Montreal, 1-goal-nil(OT)
Game 7 on Sunday, 03 May: Montreal wins at Tampa Bay, 2-goals-1

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 7: The Montreal Canadiens visited and defeated the Tampa Bay Lightning 2-goals-1 to complete a 4-games-3 best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1618 victory. With the series 1618 win, the Montreal Canadiens improve their best-of-7 NHL playoff series record to 81-44 overall and 16-10 in the Preliminary round. With the series 1618 loss, the Tampa Bay Lightning see their best-of-7 NHL playoff series record fall to 25-15 (with an active five-series losing streak) overall and 9-9 (with an active four-Preliminary round series losing streak) in the Preliminary round. The win order for the victorious Montreal Canadiens in series 1618 was WLWLWLW: Series 1618 thus becomes the second NHL Preliminary-round series, the tenth NHL series (all rounds), and the 27th MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow that win order to completion. The Montreal Canadiens were on the receiving end of a WLWLWLW punch-counterpunch win order twice before, in series 442 (against the old Quebec Nordiques in the 1985 NHL Quarterfinals) and in series 584 (against the Boston Bruins in the 1991 NHL Quarterfinals); the Tampa Bay Lightning achieved a WLWLWLW win order in series 918, over the Philadelphia Flyers in the 2004 NHL Semifinals en route to the 2004 NHL championship. The four overtime games in series 1618 are the most in a best-of-7 NHL playoff series since series 1454, in which the Carolina Hurricanes defeated the Nashville Predators in six games (four in overtime) in the 2021 NHL Preliminary round; Carolina would then lose in the 2021 NHL Quarterfinals round. Series 1618 was so exemplarily taut that the only multiple-goal in-game lead was two goals, for five minutes 37 seconds in Game 4. Series 1618 ties two other best-of-7 NHL playoff series lasting seven games (series 1156, Washington Capitals defeated the Boston Bruins in the 2012 NHL Preliminary round; series 1263, New York Rangers defeated the Washington Capitals in the 2015 NHL Quarterfinals) in that all seven games were decided by a one-goal victory margin.

After Game 6: The Tampa Bay Lightning visited and shut out the Montreal Canadiens 1-goal-nil(OT) to tie best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1618 at 3-games-all. When tied 3-games-all in a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a Game 7 record of 7-3, while the Montreal Canadiens have a Game 7 record of 15-9. On home ice, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a 4-1 best-of-7 NHL playoff Game 7 record; their sole loss was to the Washington Capitals in series 1365 (in the 2018 NHL Semifinals; Washington would then win the 2018 NHL championship). Away from Montreal, the Canadiens have a 7-6 best-of-7 NHL playoff Game 7 record. Once before had the Montreal Canadiens opened a best-of-7 NHL playoff series punch-counterpunch (with a WLWLWL win order): In series 159, Montreal did so but lost Game 7 at home to the Toronto Maple Leafs in the 1964 NHL Semifinals. Thrice before have the Tampa Bay Lightning opened a best-of-7 NHL playoff series punch-counterpunch (with a LWLWLW win order), and won Game 7 on all three occasions in series 920 (at home over the Calgary Flames in the 2004 NHL Finals), in series 1255 (at home over the Detroit Red Wings in the 2015 NHL Preliminary round, en route to the 2015 NHL Finals), and in series 1486 (in Toronto over the Maple Leafs in the 2022 NHL Preliminary round, en route to the 2022 NHL Finals).

After Game 5: The Montreal Canadiens visited and topped the Tampa Bay Lightning 3-goals-2 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1618 lead of 3-games-2. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Montreal Canadiens have a series record of 27-3 (with an active five-series winning streak) and a Game 6 record of 21-9. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a series record of 4-6 and a Game 6 record of 5-5. Twice before have the Tampa Bay Lightning faced an opponent in a best-of-7 NHL playoff series with a WLWLW @ VVHHV win/site order, and won Games 6-7 for the series win each time: in series 920 (over the Calgary Flames in the 2004 NHL Finals), and in series 1255 (over the Detroit Red Wings in the 2015 NHL Preliminary round).

After Game 4: The Tampa Bay Lightning visited and outscored the Montreal Canadiens 3-goals-2 to tie best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1618 at 2-games-all. When tied 2-games-all in a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a series record of 8-6 and a Game 5 record of 7-7, while the Montreal Canadiens have a series record of 26-19 and a Game 5 record of 23-22. The Tampa Bay Lightning trailed the host Montreal Canadiens by two goals as late as 19:05 into the second period of their series 1618 Game 4, but won: In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff games from 1939 through 2025, inclusive, road teams down two goals as late as 19:05 into the second period had a game record of only 38-523 (.068) - the Tampa Bay Lightning thus achieve a grade-A (.000 - .099) in-game comeback in Montreal.

After Game 3: The Montreal Canadiens hosted and bested the Tampa Bay Lightning 3-goals-2(OT) to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1618 lead of 2-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Montreal Canadiens have a series record of 39-11 and a Game 4 record of 18-32 (with an active four-Game 4 losing streak). When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a series record of 6-8 and a Game 4 record of 8-6. Series 1618 has become the first best-of-7 NHL playoff series (any round) to have its first three games decided in overtime since series 1453, in which the Boston Bruins and Washington Capitals went to overtime in each of their 2021 NHL Preliminary-round first three games.

After Game 2: The Tampa Bay Lightning hosted and defeated the Montreal Canadiens 3-goals-2(OT) to tie best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1618 at 1-game-all. When tied 1-game-all in a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a series record of 13-7 and a Game 3 record of 12-8, while the Montreal Canadiens have a series record of 24-19 and a Game 3 record of 27-16. The Tampa Bay Lightning trailed the visiting Montreal Canadiens by one goal as late as 12:32 into the third period of their series 1618 Game 2, but prevailed: In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff games from 1939 through 2025, inclusive, home teams down one goal as late as 12:32 into the third period had a game record of only 117-601 (.163) - the Tampa Bay Lightning thus achieve a grade-B (.100 - .199) in-game comeback with their overtime victory over Montreal. The series 1618 Game 2 win by Tampa Bay breaks a five-Game 2 losing streak in best-of-7 NHL playoff series by the Lightning.

After Game 1: The Montreal Canadiens visited and bested the Tampa Bay Lightning 4-goals-3(OT) to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1618 lead of 1-game-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Montreal Canadiens have a series record of 63-11 (with an active five-series winning streak) and a Game 2 record of 56-18. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a series record of 12-11 and a Game 2 record of 14-9 (with an active four-Game 2 losing streak). Irrespective of Game 1 outcome, the Tampa Bay Lightning have an active five-Game 2 losing streak in best-of-7 NHL playoff series.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2025-26 NHL regular season, the Tampa Bay Lightning finished tied with the Montreal Canadiens. From 1939 through the 2025 NHL Finals round, when NHL teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by zero regular-season points, they have posted a best-of-7 playoff series record of 12-10 (.545) for the team with home-ice advantage in those series against those opponents. Best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1618 is the 40th best-of-7 NHL playoff series for the Tampa Bay Lightning, and the 125th for the Montreal Canadiens. In best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Tampa Bay Lightning have an all-rounds series record of 25-14, a Preliminary-round series record of 9-8, and a Game 1 record of 16-23, while the Montreal Canadiens have an all-rounds series record of 80-44, a Preliminary-round series record of 15-10, and a Game 1 record of 74-50. Series 1618 is the fifth best-of-7 NHL playoff series meeting between the Tampa Bay Lightning and the Montreal Canadiens. The Tampa Bay Lightning won three of the previous four best-of-7 NHL playoff series between these two teams, with the Montreal Canadiens sweeping Tampa in series 1222 (in the 2014 NHL Preliminary round).