Schedule and 2025-26 Results
Regular Season Records: Tampa Bay 50-26-6=106pts, Montreal 48-24-10=106pts
Game 1 on Sunday, 19 April: Montreal wins at Tampa Bay, 4-goals-3(OT)
Game 2 on Tuesday, 21 April: Montreal loses at Tampa Bay, 3-goals-2(OT)
Game 3 on Friday, 24 April: Tampa Bay loses at Montreal, 3-goals-2(OT)
Game 4 on Sunday, 26 April: Tampa Bay wins at Montreal, 3-goals-2
Game 5 on Wednesday, 29 April: Montreal at Tampa Bay
Game 6 on Friday, 01 May: Tampa Bay at Montreal
Game 7* on Sunday, 03 May: Montreal at Tampa Bay
* if needed

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Tied 2-games-all @ HHVV:
Ignoring win order; considering site order: The team tied 2-games-all with site order HHVV (Tampa Bay) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2025 MLB Finals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 375-207 (.644)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 120-60 (.667)
series record, NHL only, all rounds: 172-125 (.579)
series record, NHL only, Preliminary round: 74-50 (.597)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 371-211 (.637)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 118-62 (.656)
Game 5 record, NHL only, all rounds: 181-116 (.609)
Game 5 record, NHL only, Preliminary round: 76-48 (.613)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1616 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2025 MLB Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Tied LWLW:
Considering win order; ignoring site order: The team tied LWLW irrespective of site order (Tampa Bay) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2025 MLB Finals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 102-94 (.520)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 31-20 (.608)
series record, NHL only, all rounds: 54-39 (.581)
series record, NHL only, Preliminary round: 24-15 (.615)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 94-102 (.480)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 28-23 (.549)
Game 5 record, NHL only, all rounds: 47-46 (.505)
Game 5 record, NHL only, Preliminary round: 21-18 (.538)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1616 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2025 MLB Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Tied LWLW @ HHVV:
Considering win order; considering site order: The team tied LWLW with site order HHVV (Tampa Bay) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2025 MLB Finals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 62-26 (.705)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 21-7 (.750)
series record, NHL only, all rounds: 32-14 (.696)
series record, NHL only, Preliminary round: 14-6 (.700)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 54-34 (.614)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 19-9 (.679)
Game 5 record, NHL only, all rounds: 27-19 (.587)
Game 5 record, NHL only, Preliminary round: 12-8 (.600)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1616 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2025 MLB Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 4: The Tampa Bay Lightning visited and outscored the Montreal Canadiens 3-goals-2 to tie best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1618 at 2-games-all. When tied 2-games-all in a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a series record of 8-6 and a Game 5 record of 7-7, while the Montreal Canadiens have a series record of 26-19 and a Game 5 record of 23-22. The Tampa Bay Lightning trailed the host Montreal Canadiens by two goals as late as 19:05 into the second period of their series 1618 Game 4, but won: In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff games from 1939 through 2025, inclusive, road teams down two goals as late as 19:05 into the second period had a game record of only 38-523 (.068) - the Tampa Bay Lightning thus achieve a grade-A (.000 - .099) in-game comeback in Montreal.

After Game 3: The Montreal Canadiens hosted and bested the Tampa Bay Lightning 3-goals-2(OT) to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1618 lead of 2-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Montreal Canadiens have a series record of 39-11 and a Game 4 record of 18-32 (with an active four-Game 4 losing streak). When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a series record of 6-8 and a Game 4 record of 8-6. Series 1618 has become the first best-of-7 NHL playoff series (any round) to have its first three games decided in overtime since series 1453, in which the Boston Bruins and Washington Capitals went to overtime in each of their 2021 NHL Preliminary-round first three games.

After Game 2: The Tampa Bay Lightning hosted and defeated the Montreal Canadiens 3-goals-2(OT) to tie best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1618 at 1-game-all. When tied 1-game-all in a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a series record of 13-7 and a Game 3 record of 12-8, while the Montreal Canadiens have a series record of 24-19 and a Game 3 record of 27-16. The Tampa Bay Lightning trailed the visiting Montreal Canadiens by one goal as late as 12:32 into the third period of their series 1618 Game 2, but prevailed: In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff games from 1939 through 2025, inclusive, home teams down one goal as late as 12:32 into the third period had a game record of only 117-601 (.163) - the Tampa Bay Lightning thus achieve a grade-B (.100 - .199) in-game comeback with their overtime victory over Montreal. The series 1618 Game 2 win by Tampa Bay breaks a five-Game 2 losing streak in best-of-7 NHL playoff series by the Lightning.

After Game 1: The Montreal Canadiens visited and bested the Tampa Bay Lightning 4-goals-3(OT) to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1618 lead of 1-game-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Montreal Canadiens have a series record of 63-11 (with an active five-series winning streak) and a Game 2 record of 56-18. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a series record of 12-11 and a Game 2 record of 14-9 (with an active four-Game 2 losing streak). Irrespective of Game 1 outcome, the Tampa Bay Lightning have an active five-Game 2 losing streak in best-of-7 NHL playoff series.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2025-26 NHL regular season, the Tampa Bay Lightning finished tied with the Montreal Canadiens. From 1939 through the 2025 NHL Finals round, when NHL teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by zero regular-season points, they have posted a best-of-7 playoff series record of 12-10 (.545) for the team with home-ice advantage in those series against those opponents. Best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1618 is the 40th best-of-7 NHL playoff series for the Tampa Bay Lightning, and the 125th for the Montreal Canadiens. In best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Tampa Bay Lightning have an all-rounds series record of 25-14, a Preliminary-round series record of 9-8, and a Game 1 record of 16-23, while the Montreal Canadiens have an all-rounds series record of 80-44, a Preliminary-round series record of 15-10, and a Game 1 record of 74-50. Series 1618 is the fifth best-of-7 NHL playoff series meeting between the Tampa Bay Lightning and the Montreal Canadiens. The Tampa Bay Lightning won three of the previous four best-of-7 NHL playoff series between these two teams, with the Montreal Canadiens sweeping Tampa in series 1222 (in the 2014 NHL Preliminary round).