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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
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QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
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Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
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BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
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All | Home Games | Road Games
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2025 NHL Preliminary round - Series 1590.
Minnesota Wild vs Vegas Golden Knights

Schedule and 2024-25 Results
Regular Season Records: Vegas 50-22-10=110pts, Minnesota 45-30-7=97pts
Game 1 on Sunday, 20 April: Minnesota loses at Vegas, 4-goals-2
Game 2 on Tuesday, 22 April: Minnesota wins at Vegas, 5-goals-2
Game 3 on Thursday, 24 April: Vegas loses at Minnesota, 5-goals-2
Game 4 on Saturday, 26 April: Vegas wins at Minnesota, 4-goals-3(OT)
Game 5 on Tuesday, 29 April: Minnesota loses at Vegas, 3-goals-2(OT)
Game 6 on Thursday, 01 May: Vegas at Minnesota
Game 7* on Saturday, 03 May: Minnesota at Vegas
* if needed

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading 3-games-2:
Ignoring win order; ignoring site order: The team leading 3-games-2 irrespective of site order (Vegas) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2024 MLB Finals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 730-186 (.797)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 225-54 (.806)
series record, NHL only, all rounds: 357-94 (.792)
series record, NHL only, Preliminary round: 149-43 (.776)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 506-410 (.552)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 166-113 (.595)
Game 6 record, NHL only, all rounds: 253-198 (.561)
Game 6 record, NHL only, Preliminary round: 110-82 (.573)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1583 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2024 MLB Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading 3-games-2 @ HHVVH:
Ignoring win order; considering site order: The team leading 3-games-2 with site order HHVVH (Vegas) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2024 MLB Finals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 385-73 (.841)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 142-25 (.850)
series record, NHL only, all rounds: 212-52 (.803)
series record, NHL only, Preliminary round: 92-23 (.800)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 246-212 (.537)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 99-68 (.593)
Game 6 record, NHL only, all rounds: 140-124 (.530)
Game 6 record, NHL only, Preliminary round: 64-51 (.557)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1583 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2024 MLB Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading WLLWW:
Considering win order; ignoring site order: The team leading WLLWW irrespective of site order (Vegas) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2024 MLB Finals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 68-19 (.782)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 24-4 (.857)
series record, NHL only, all rounds: 41-11 (.788)
series record, NHL only, Preliminary round: 19-4 (.826)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 45-42 (.517)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 17-11 (.607)
Game 6 record, NHL only, all rounds: 30-22 (.577)
Game 6 record, NHL only, Preliminary round: 15-8 (.652)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1583 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2024 MLB Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading WLLWW @ HHVVH:
Considering win order; considering site order: The team leading WLLWW with site order HHVVH (Vegas) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2024 MLB Finals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 32-6 (.842)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 11-1 (.917)
series record, NHL only, all rounds: 20-4 (.833)
series record, NHL only, Preliminary round: 8-1 (.889)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 18-20 (.474)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 7-5 (.583)
Game 6 record, NHL only, all rounds: 12-12 (.500)
Game 6 record, NHL only, Preliminary round: 6-3 (.667)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1583 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2024 MLB Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 5: The Vegas Golden Knights hosted and defeated the Minnesota Wild 3-goals-2(OT) to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1590 lead of 3-games-2.

After Game 4: The Vegas Golden Knights visited and topped the Minnesota Wild 4-goals-3(OT) to tie best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1590 at 2-games-all. The Vegas Golden Knights trailed their host Minnesota Wild by one goal as late as 4:49 into the third period but won: In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff games from 1939 through 2024, inclusive, road teams down one goal as late as 4:49 into the third period had a game record of only 166-702 (.191) - the Vegas Golden Knights thus achieve a grade-B (.100 - .199) in-game comeback via their Game 4 overtime win in Minnesota.

After Game 3: The Minnesota Wild hosted and bested the Vegas Golden Knights 5-goals-2 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1590 lead of 2-games-1.

After Game 2: The Minnesota Wild visited and topped the Vegas Golden Knights 5-goals-2 to tie best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1590 at 1-game-all.

After Game 1: The Vegas Golden Knights hosted and bested the Minnesota Wild 4-goals-2 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1590 lead of 1-game-nil.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2024-25 NHL regular season, the Vegas Golden Knights finished thirteen points ahead of the Minnesota Wild. From 1939 through the 2024 NHL Finals round, when NHL teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by thirteen regular-season points, they have posted a best-of-7 playoff series record of 16-10 (.615) in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1590 is the 17th best-of-7 NHL playoff series for the Vegas Golden Knights, and the 17th for the Minnesota Wild. In best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Vegas Golden Knights have an all-rounds series record of 11-5, a Preliminary-round series record of 4-2, and a Game 1 record of 10-6, while the Minnesota Wild have an all-rounds series record of 4-12, a Preliminary-round series record of 3-9, and a Game 1 record of 4-12. Series 1590 is the second best-of-7 NHL playoff series meeting between the Vegas Golden Knights and the Minnesota Wild. In their only previous best-of-7 NHL playoff series meeting, the Vegas Golden Knights defeated the Minnesota Wild in seven games in the 2021 NHL Preliminary round (best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1457).