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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 GREATEST COMEBACK EVER
Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2025 NHL Preliminary round - Series 1584.
Ottawa Senators vs Toronto Maple Leafs

Schedule and 2024-25 Results
Regular Season Records: Toronto 52-26-4=108pts, Ottawa 45-30-7=97pts
Game 1 on Sunday, 20 April: Ottawa loses at Toronto, 6-goals-2
Game 2 on Tuesday, 22 April: Ottawa loses at Toronto, 3-goals-2(OT)
Game 3 on Thursday, 24 April: Toronto wins at Ottawa, 3-goals-2(OT)
Game 4 on Saturday, 26 April: Toronto loses at Ottawa, 4-goals-3(OT)
Game 5 on Tuesday, 29 April: Ottawa wins at Toronto, 4-goals-nil
Game 6 on Thursday, 01 May: Toronto at Ottawa
Game 7* on Saturday, 03 May: Ottawa at Toronto
* if needed

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading 3-games-2:
Ignoring win order; ignoring site order: The team leading 3-games-2 irrespective of site order (Toronto) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2024 MLB Finals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 730-186 (.797)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 225-54 (.806)
series record, NHL only, all rounds: 357-94 (.792)
series record, NHL only, Preliminary round: 149-43 (.776)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 506-410 (.552)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 166-113 (.595)
Game 6 record, NHL only, all rounds: 253-198 (.561)
Game 6 record, NHL only, Preliminary round: 110-82 (.573)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1583 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2024 MLB Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading 3-games-2 @ HHVVH:
Ignoring win order; considering site order: The team leading 3-games-2 with site order HHVVH (Toronto) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2024 MLB Finals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 385-73 (.841)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 142-25 (.850)
series record, NHL only, all rounds: 212-52 (.803)
series record, NHL only, Preliminary round: 92-23 (.800)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 246-212 (.537)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 99-68 (.593)
Game 6 record, NHL only, all rounds: 140-124 (.530)
Game 6 record, NHL only, Preliminary round: 64-51 (.557)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1583 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2024 MLB Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading WWWLL:
Considering win order; ignoring site order: The team leading WWWLL irrespective of site order (Toronto) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2024 MLB Finals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 39-5 (.886)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 11-1 (.917)
series record, NHL only, all rounds: 21-4 (.840)
series record, NHL only, Preliminary round: 6-1 (.857)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 28-16 (.636)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 9-3 (.750)
Game 6 record, NHL only, all rounds: 15-10 (.600)
Game 6 record, NHL only, Preliminary round: 5-2 (.714)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1583 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2024 MLB Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading WWWLL @ HHVVH:
Considering win order; considering site order: The team leading WWWLL with site order HHVVH (Toronto) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2024 MLB Finals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 24-3 (.889)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 10-1 (.909)
series record, NHL only, all rounds: 14-3 (.824)
series record, NHL only, Preliminary round: 5-1 (.833)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 17-10 (.630)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 8-3 (.727)
Game 6 record, NHL only, all rounds: 10-7 (.588)
Game 6 record, NHL only, Preliminary round: 4-2 (.667)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1583 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2024 MLB Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 5: The Ottawa Senators visited and shut out the Toronto Maple Leafs 4-goals-nil to drop the Toronto Maple Leafs best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL series 1584 lead to 3-games-2.

After Game 4: The Ottawa Senators hosted and bested the Toronto Maple Leafs 4-goals-3(OT) to stave off a sweep and decrease the Toronto Maple Leafs best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL series 1584 lead to 3-games-1. Series 1584 Game 4 is the third consecutive series 1584 game to require overtime for resolution.

After Game 3: The Toronto Maple Leafs visited and defeated the Ottawa Senators 3-goals-2(OT) to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1584 lead of 3-games-nil. With their series 1584 Game 3 win, the Toronto Maple Leafs become the 409th MLB/NBA/NHL team to take a 3-games-nil lead in a best-of-7 playoff series; the Ottawa Senators will strive to become the sixth MLB/NBA/NHL team (and the fifth NHL team) to surmount that deficit for a 4-games-3 series victory.

After Game 2: The Toronto Maple Leafs hosted and bested the Ottawa Senators 3-goals-2(OT) to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1584 lead of 2-games-nil.

After Game 1: The Toronto Maple Leafs hosted and vanquished the Ottawa Senators 6-goals-2 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1584 lead of 1-game-nil.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2024-25 NHL regular season, the Toronto Maple Leafs finished eleven points ahead of the Ottawa Senators. From 1939 through the 2024 NHL Finals round, when NHL teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by eleven regular-season points, they have posted a best-of-7 playoff series record of 15-12 (.556) in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1584 is the 83rd best-of-7 NHL playoff series for the Toronto Maple Leafs, and the 28th for the Ottawa Senators. In best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Toronto Maple Leafs have an all-rounds series record of 36-46, a Preliminary-round series record of 9-12, and a Game 1 record of 34-48, while the Ottawa Senators have an all-rounds series record of 11-16, a Preliminary-round series record of 7-9, and a Game 1 record of 13-14. Series 1584 is the fifth best-of-7 NHL playoff series meeting between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Ottawa Senators. The Toronto Maple Leafs defeated the Ottawa Senators in all four of the previous best-of-7 NHL playoff series Battles Of Ontario.