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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 GREATEST COMEBACK EVER
Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2025 NBA Finals round - Series 1613.
Indiana Pacers vs Oklahoma City Thunder

Schedule and 2024-25 Results
Regular Season Records: Oklahoma City 68-14, Indiana 50-32
Game 1 on Thursday, 05 June: Indiana wins at Oklahoma City, 111-pts-110
Game 2 on Sunday, 08 June: Indiana loses at Oklahoma City, 123-pts-107
Game 3 on Wednesday, 11 June: Oklahoma City loses at Indiana, 116-pts-107
Game 4 on Friday, 13 June: Oklahoma City wins at Indiana, 111-pts-104
Game 5 on Monday, 16 June: Indiana loses at Oklahoma City, 120-pts-109
Game 6 on Thursday, 19 June: Oklahoma City loses at Indiana, 108-pts-91
Game 7 on Sunday, 22 June: Indiana loses at Oklahoma City, 103-pts-91

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 7: The Oklahoma City Thunder hosted and bested the Indiana Pacers 103-pts-91 to complete a 4-games-3 best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1613 victory. With the series 1613 win, the Oklahoma City Thunder improve their best-of-7 NBA playoff series record to 15-11 (with an active four-series winning streak befitting a newly crowned NBA champion) overall, and 1-1 in the Finals round. With the series 1613 loss, the Indiana Pacers see their best-of-7 NBA playoff series record fall to 19-20 overall and 0-2 in the Finals round. The win order for the victorious Oklahoma City Thunder in series 1613 was LWLWWLW: Series 1613 thus becomes the third NBA Finals-round series, the 12th NBA series (all rounds), and the 31st MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow that win order to completion. The series 1613 victory by the Oklahoma City Thunder gives them their first NBA championship as the Oklahoma City Thunder; in 1979, the old Seattle Supersonics (as the preceding entity to the Oklahoma City Thunder) won their first and only NBA championship.

After Game 6: The Indiana Pacers hosted and defeated the Oklahoma City Thunder 108-pts-91 to tie best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1613 at 3-games-all. When tied 3-games-all in a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, the Oklahoma City Thunder have a Game 7 record of 3-2, while the Indiana Pacers have a Game 7 record of 4-6. In Oklahoma City, the Thunder have a 3-0 best-of-7 NBA playoff Game 7 record; on the road, the Indiana Pacers have a 3-6 best-of-7 NBA playoff Game 7 record. All else equal, home teams in best-of-7 NBA playoff Game 7s have a 114-40 (.740) Game 7 record across all rounds, and a 15-4 (.789) Game 7 record in the NBA Finals. The four teams to lose an NBA Finals Game 7 at home: the 1969 Los Angeles Lakers (to the Boston Celtics in MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 215); the 1974 Milwaukee Bucks (also to the Celtics, in series 290); the old 1978 Seattle Supersonics (to the old Washington Bullets, in series 350); the 2016 Golden State Warriors in the last NBA Finals Game 7 (to the Cleveland Cavaliers, in series 1316). In the history of best-of-7 NBA Finals series, teams such as the Oklahoma City Thunder which post a LWLWWL @ HHVVHV win/site order through six games have a 2-0 Game 7 record, with the Boston Celtics winning both of those games (over the old St. Louis Hawks in the 1957 NBA Finals in series 115; over the Los Angeles Lakers in the 1984 NBA Finals in series 440).

After Game 5: The Oklahoma City Thunder hosted and defeated the Indiana Pacers 120-pts-109 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1613 lead of 3-games-2. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Oklahoma City Thunder have a series record of 6-1 and a Game 6 record of 4-3. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Indiana Pacers have a series record of 2-13 and a Game 6 record of 7-8. Leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 3-games-2, the Oklahoma City Thunder suffered their sole series loss in series 1315, to the Golden State Warriors in the 2016 NBA Semifinals round. Irrespective of Games 1-5 outcomes, the Indiana Pacers have an active five-Game 6 winning streak and have won ten of their last eleven Game 6s in best-of-7 NBA playoff series. While the Indiana Pacers have won only two of their fifteen best-of-7 NBA playoff series in the wake of a 3-games-2 deficit, one of the two comeback victories was in the last such series for Indiana, in series 1575 over the New York Knickerbockers in the 2024 NBA Quarterfinals. The LWLWW @ HHVVH win/site order posted by the leading Oklahoma City Thunder thus far in series 1613 was previously posted by Oklahoma City in series 1147 (vs the Memphis Grizzlies in the 2011 NBA Quarterfinals) and in series 1609 (vs the Denver Nuggets in the 2025 NBA Quarterfinals); both series culminated in Thunder victories.

After Game 4: The Oklahoma City Thunder visited and bested the Indiana Pacers 111-pts-104 to tie best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1613 at 2-games-all. When tied 2-games-all in a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, the Oklahoma City Thunder have a series record of 6-4 and a Game 5 record of 5-5, while the Indiana Pacers have a series record of 6-11 and a Game 5 record of 5-12 (with an active five-Game 5 losing streak and an active six-Game 6 winning streak). The Oklahoma City Thunder trailed their host Indiana Pacers by seven points after three quarters of series 1613 Game 4 but prevailed: In the history of best-of-7 NBA playoff games from 1947 through 6/12/2025, inclusive, road teams down seven points after three quarters had a game record of only 18-112 (.138) - the Oklahoma City Thunder thus achieve a grade-B (.100 - .199) in-game comeback to tie the 2025 NBA Finals 2-games-all. For the first time since 2015, both the NBA Finals and the NHL Finals stand at 2-games-all after four games of each best-of-7 series. With their 2025 NBA Finals Game 4 victory, the Oklahoma City Thunder lengthen their best-of-7 NBA playoffs Game 4 winning streak to seven Games 4s (irrespective of Games 1-3 outcomes).

After Game 3: The Indiana Pacers hosted and defeated the Oklahoma City Thunder 116-pts-107 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1613 lead of 2-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Indiana Pacers have a series record of 14-4 (with an active four-series winning streak) and a Game 4 record of 10-8 (with an active four-Game 4 winning streak). When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Oklahoma City Thunder have a series record of 5-10 and a Game 4 record of 9-6. With their series 1613 Game 3 win, the Indiana Pacers break their four-Game 3 losing streak in best-of-7 NBA playoff series. Leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 2-games-1 (as they do in series 1613), the Indiana Pacers have seen their Game 4 outcome presage their series outcome in their last seven such series (six wins, one loss). Irrespective of Games 1-3 outcomes, the Oklahoma City Thunder have a six-Game 4 winning streak in best-of-7 NBA playoff series.

After Game 2: The Oklahoma City Thunder hosted and defeated the Indiana Pacers 123-pts-107 to knot best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1613 at 1-game-all. When tied 1-game-all in a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, the Oklahoma City Thunder have a series record of 6-6 and a Game 3 record of 3-9, while the Indiana Pacers have a series record of 8-10 and a Game 3 record of 11-7. With their series 1613 Game 2 victory, the Oklahoma City Thunder lengthen their best-of-7 NBA playoff Game 2 winning streak (irrespective of round and Game 1 outcome) to four consecutive Game 2 victories. Irrespective of Games 1-2 outcomes, the Indiana Pacers have an active four-Game 3 losing streak in best-of-7 NBA playoff series.

After Game 1: The Indiana Pacers visited and bested the Oklahoma City Thunder 111-pts-110 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1613 lead of 1-game-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Indiana Pacers have a series record of 13-5 and a Game 2 record of 10-8. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Oklahoma City Thunder have a series record of 5-6 and a Game 2 record of 5-6. With their series 1613 Game 1 victory, the Indiana Pacers now have a four-Game 1 winning streak in best-of-7 NBA playoff series. Irrespective of Game 1 outcome in best-of-7 NBA playoff series, the Oklahoma City Thunder have seen their Game 2 outcome presage their series outcome in their last eleven best-of-7 NBA playoff series dating back to 2016 (five wins, six losses). The Indiana Pacers trailed the host Oklahoma City Thunder by twelve points after two quarters of series 1613 Game 1, but prevailed: In the history of best-of-7 NBA playoff games from 1947 through 6/4/2025, inclusive, road teams down twelve points after two quarters had a game record of only 10-78 (.114) - the Indiana Pacers thus achieve a grade-B (.100 - .199) in-game comeback in 2025 NBA Finals Game 1.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2024-25 NBA regular season, the Oklahoma City Thunder finished eighteen games ahead of the Indiana Pacers. From 1947 through the 2025 NBA Semifinals round, when NBA teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by eighteen regular-season games, they have posted a best-of-7 playoff series record of 11-0 (1.000) in those series against those opponents. Best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1613 is the 26th best-of-7 NBA playoff series for the Oklahoma City Thunder, and the 39th for the Indiana Pacers. In best-of-7 NBA playoff series, the Oklahoma City Thunder have an all-rounds series record of 14-11, a Finals-round series record of 0-1, and a Game 1 record of 14-11, while the Indiana Pacers have an all-rounds series record of 19-19, a Finals-round series record of 0-1, and a Game 1 record of 18-20. Series 1613 is the first best-of-7 NBA playoff series meeting between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Indiana Pacers. The last three best-of-7 NBA playoff series (and four of the last five series) lost by the Indiana Pacers were lost via four-game sweeps.