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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 GREATEST COMEBACK EVER
Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2025 NBA Preliminary round - Series 1605.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs Los Angeles Lakers

Schedule and 2024-25 Results
Regular Season Records: Lakers 50-32, Minnesota 49-33
Game 1 on Saturday, 19 April: Minnesota wins at Los Angeles Lakers, 117-pts-95
Game 2 on Tuesday, 22 April: Minnesota loses at Los Angeles Lakers, 94-pts-85
Game 3 on Friday, 25 April: Los Angeles Lakers lose at Minnesota, 116-pts-104
Game 4 on Sunday, 27 April: Los Angeles Lakers lose at Minnesota, 116-pts-113
Game 5 on Wednesday, 30 April: Minnesota at Los Angeles Lakers
Game 6* on Friday, 02 May: Los Angeles Lakers at Minnesota
Game 7* on Sunday, 04 May: Minnesota at Los Angeles Lakers
* if needed

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading 3-games-1:
Ignoring win order; ignoring site order: The team leading 3-games-1 irrespective of site order (Minnesota) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2024 MLB Finals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 672-59 (.919)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 197-26 (.883)
series record, NBA only, all rounds: 275-13 (.955)
series record, NBA only, Preliminary round: 82-3 (.965)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 412-319 (.564)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 119-104 (.534)
Game 5 record, NBA only, all rounds: 173-115 (.601)
Game 5 record, NBA only, Preliminary round: 53-32 (.624)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1583 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2024 MLB Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading 3-games-1 @ VVHH:
Ignoring win order; considering site order: The team leading 3-games-1 with site order VVHH (Minnesota) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2024 MLB Finals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 208-31 (.870)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 59-14 (.808)
series record, NBA only, all rounds: 75-9 (.893)
series record, NBA only, Preliminary round: 23-3 (.885)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 93-146 (.389)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 22-51 (.301)
Game 5 record, NBA only, all rounds: 23-61 (.274)
Game 5 record, NBA only, Preliminary round: 5-21 (.192)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1583 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2024 MLB Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading WLWW:
Considering win order; ignoring site order: The team leading WLWW irrespective of site order (Minnesota) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2024 MLB Finals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 171-26 (.868)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 50-12 (.806)
series record, NBA only, all rounds: 68-7 (.907)
series record, NBA only, Preliminary round: 18-1 (.947)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 95-102 (.482)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 24-38 (.387)
Game 5 record, NBA only, all rounds: 35-40 (.467)
Game 5 record, NBA only, Preliminary round: 9-10 (.474)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1583 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2024 MLB Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading WLWW @ VVHH:
Considering win order; considering site order: The team leading WLWW with site order VVHH (Minnesota) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2024 MLB Finals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 78-18 (.813)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 23-9 (.719)
series record, NBA only, all rounds: 36-6 (.857)
series record, NBA only, Preliminary round: 12-1 (.923)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 32-64 (.333)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 8-24 (.250)
Game 5 record, NBA only, all rounds: 10-32 (.238)
Game 5 record, NBA only, Preliminary round: 4-9 (.308)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1583 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2024 MLB Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 4: The Minnesota Timberwolves hosted and defeated the Los Angeles Lakers 116-pts-113 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1605 lead of 3-games-1. The Minnesota Timberwolves trailed the visiting Los Angeles Lakers by ten points after three quarters but prevailed: In the history of best-of-7 NBA playoff games from 1947 through 4/26/2025, inclusive, home teams down ten points as late as after three quarters had a game record of only 3-54 (.053) - the Minnesota Timberwolves thus achieve a grade-A (.000 - .099) in-game comeback.

After Game 3: The Minnesota Timberwolves hosted and defeated the Los Angeles Lakers 116-pts-104 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1605 lead of 2-games-1.

After Game 2: The Los Angeles Lakers hosted and defeated the Minnesota Timberwolves 94-pts-85 to knot best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1605 at 1-game-all.

After Game 1: The Minnesota Timberwolves visited and topped the Los Angeles Lakers 117-pts-95 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1605 lead of 1-game-nil.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2024-25 NBA regular season, the Los Angeles Lakers finished one games ahead of the Minnesota Timberwolves. From 1947 through the 2024 NBA Finals round, when NBA teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by one regular-season games, they have posted a best-of-7 playoff series record of 23-27 (.460) in those series against those opponents. Best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1605 is the 109th best-of-7 NBA playoff series for the Los Angeles Lakers, and the 11th for the Minnesota Timberwolves. In best-of-7 NBA playoff series, the Los Angeles Lakers have an all-rounds series record of 74-34, a Preliminary-round series record of 9-5, and a Game 1 record of 68-40, while the Minnesota Timberwolves have an all-rounds series record of 4-6, a Preliminary-round series record of 2-4, and a Game 1 record of 4-6. Series 1605 is the third best-of-7 NBA playoff series meeting between the Los Angeles Lakers and the Minnesota Timberwolves. In their previous two best-of-7 NBA playoff series meetings, the Los Angeles Lakers defeated the Minnesota Timberwolves in six games (in the 2003 NBA Preliminary round and in the 2004 NBA Semifinals, with the 2004 loss knocking the Timberwolves out of best-of-7 NBA playoff series action until 2018).