Schedule and 2025 Results
Regular Season Records: Toronto 94-68, Seattle 90-72
Game 1 on Sunday, 12 October: Seattle wins at Toronto, 3-runs-1
Game 2 on Monday, 13 October: Seattle wins at Toronto, 10-runs-3
Game 3 on Wednesday, 15 October: Toronto wins at Seattle, 13-runs-4
Game 4 on Thursday, 16 October: Toronto wins at Seattle, 8-runs-2
Game 5 on Friday, 17 October: Toronto loses at Seattle, 6-runs-2
Game 6 on Sunday, 19 October: Seattle at Toronto
Game 7* on Monday, 20 October: Seattle at Toronto
* if needed

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading 3-games-2:
Ignoring win order; ignoring site order: The team leading 3-games-2 irrespective of site order (Seattle) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2025 NBA/NHL Finals round:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 745-186 (.800)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Semifinals round: 176-47 (.789)
series record, MLB only, all rounds: 80-35 (.696)
series record, MLB only, Semifinals round: 34-14 (.708)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 514-417 (.552)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, Semifinals round: 128-95 (.574)
Game 6 record, MLB only, all rounds: 54-61 (.470)
Game 6 record, MLB only, Semifinals round: 27-21 (.563)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1613 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2025 NBA/NHL Finals round. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading 3-games-2 @ VVHHH:
Ignoring win order; considering site order: The team leading 3-games-2 with site order VVHHH (Seattle) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2025 NBA/NHL Finals round:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 39-27 (.591)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Semifinals round: 13-8 (.619)
series record, MLB only, all rounds: 31-21 (.596)
series record, MLB only, Semifinals round: 12-8 (.600)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 25-41 (.379)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, Semifinals round: 11-10 (.524)
Game 6 record, MLB only, all rounds: 18-34 (.346)
Game 6 record, MLB only, Semifinals round: 10-10 (.500)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1613 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2025 NBA/NHL Finals round. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading WWLLW:
Considering win order; ignoring site order: The team leading WWLLW irrespective of site order (Seattle) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2025 NBA/NHL Finals round:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 121-22 (.846)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Semifinals round: 31-4 (.886)
series record, MLB only, all rounds: 6-2 (.750)
series record, MLB only, Semifinals round: 1-1 (.500)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 85-58 (.594)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, Semifinals round: 23-12 (.657)
Game 6 record, MLB only, all rounds: 5-3 (.625)
Game 6 record, MLB only, Semifinals round: 1-1 (.500)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1613 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2025 NBA/NHL Finals round. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading WWLLW @ VVHHH:
Considering win order; considering site order: The team leading WWLLW with site order VVHHH (Seattle) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2025 NBA/NHL Finals round:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 2-1 (.667)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Semifinals round: 1-0 (1.000)
series record, MLB only, all rounds: 1-1 (.500)
series record, MLB only, Semifinals round: 1-0 (1.000)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 2-1 (.667)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, Semifinals round: 1-0 (1.000)
Game 6 record, MLB only, all rounds: 1-1 (.500)
Game 6 record, MLB only, Semifinals round: 1-0 (1.000)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1613 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2025 NBA/NHL Finals round. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 5: The Seattle Mariners hosted and bested the Toronto Blue Jays 6-runs-2 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1614 lead of 3-games-2. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Seattle Mariners have a series record of 0-0 and a Game 6 record of 0-0; i.e., the Mariners lead a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 3-games-2 for the first time in series 1614. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Toronto Blue Jays have a series record of 0-1 and a Game 6 record of 0-1. The Seattle Mariners enter series 1614 Game 6 with a 3-games-2 lead in a best-of-7 MLB playoff series for the first time in their history. Trailing a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 3-games-2, the Toronto Blue Jays suffered their sole Game 6 loss (against no Game 6 victories) to the Kansas City Royals in series 1284, in the 2015 American League Championship Series. Series 1614 becomes only the fourth best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series (and third best-of-7 MLB playoff series) to open with a win-site order of WWLLW @ VVHHH (by the leading Seattle Mariners in series 1614): In series 648, the Toronto Blue Jays posted a WWLLW @ VVHHH win-site order against the Chicago White Sox through the first five games of the 1993 American League Championship Series, and won Game 6 to win that series; so it is that those 1993 Toronto Blue Jays set a favorable win-site precedent for the 2025 Seattle Mariners against the 2025 Toronto Blue Jays. Toronto, however, has a favorable precedent in the 1986 MLB champion New York Mets: In series 475, the Boston Red Sox opened WWLLW @ VVHHH against the Mets in the 1986 World Series, but the Mets then won Games 6-7 in New York to win the 1986 World Series.

After Game 4: The Toronto Blue Jays visited and defeated the Seattle Mariners 8-runs-2 to tie best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1614 at 2-games-all. When tied 2-games-all in a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, the Toronto Blue Jays have a series record of 1-0 and a Game 5 record of 1-0, while the Seattle Mariners have a series record of 0-1 and a Game 5 record of 0-1. The sole previous best-of-7 MLB playoff series in which the Toronto Blue Jays were tied 2-games-all was series 648, against the Chicago White Sox in the 1993 American League Championship Series. The sole previous best-of-7 MLB playoff series in which the Seattle Mariners were tied 2-games-all was series 695, against the old Cleveland Indians in the 1995 American League Championship Series.

After Game 3: The Toronto Blue Jays visited and defeated the Seattle Mariners 13-runs-4 to reduce the Seattle Mariners best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL series 1614 lead to 2-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Seattle Mariners have a series record of 0-1 and a Game 4 record of 0-1 (in series 695 against the old Cleveland Indians, in the 1995 American League Championship Series). When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Toronto Blue Jays have a series record of 0-3 and a Game 4 record of 0-3. In four previous best-of-7 MLB playoff series have teams such as the 2025 Toronto Blue Jays in series 1614 lost Games 1-2 (irrespective of site) and then tallied double-digit runs in a Game 3 victory: All four Game 3 winners then lost Game 4, scoring only one or two runs in Game 4, and three of those four Game 3 winners then lost the series; the only series winner was the Los Angeles Dodgers, over the Atlanta Braves via Games 5-7 wins in series 1450 (in the 2020 National League Championship Series).

After Game 2: The Seattle Mariners visited and bested the Toronto Blue Jays 10-runs-3 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1614 lead of 2-games-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Seattle Mariners have a series record of 0-0 and a Game 3 record of 0-0 (leading a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 2-games-nil, as Seattle does in series 1614). When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Toronto Blue Jays have a series record of 0-3 and a Game 3 record of 2-1. With their series 1614 Game 2 loss, the Toronto Blue Jays see their best-of-7 MLB playoffs Game 2 losing streak reach four consecutive Game 2s; Toronto has now lost Games 1-2 of a best-of-7 MLB playoff series for their third consecutive series. The Seattle Mariners after series 1614 Game 2 hold a 2-games-nil lead in a best-of-7 MLB playoff series for the first time in franchise history. Through series 1614 Games 1-2, the Seattle Mariners en route to their WW @ VV win-site order have amassed a nine-run differential (13-runs-4) against the Toronto Blue Jays: In best-of-7 MLB Semifinals series, this differential is the largest such differential for a team leading WW @ VV since series 573, in which the old Oakland Athletics amassed an eleven-run differential (13-runs-2) against the Red Sox in Boston in the 1990 American League Championship Series Games 1-2. Of the fifteen previous teams to take WW @ VV leads in a best-of-7 MLB Semifinals series, the sole team to sustain a series loss was the Atlanta Braves in series 1450, to the Los Angeles Dodgers in the 2020 National League Championship Series.

After Game 1: The Seattle Mariners visited and bested the Toronto Blue Jays 3-runs-1 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1614 lead of 1-game-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Seattle Mariners have a series record of 0-2 and a Game 2 record of 0-2. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Toronto Blue Jays have a series record of 2-4 and a Game 2 record of 3-3. Trailing a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 1-game-nil (as they do after series 1614 Game 1), the Toronto Blue Jays have seen their Game 2 outcome presage their series outcome in their last four such best-of-7 MLB playoff series (two wins; two losses). Series 1614 Game 1 becomes the third best-of-7 MLB playoff game to end 3-runs-1 in favor of the visitors, and with the home team having tallied their sole run in the bottom of the first inning: The first such game was series 648 Game 2, in which the White Sox in Chicago scored their sole run in the bottom of the first inning, and lost 3-runs-1 to the visiting Toronto Blue Jays in 1993 American League Championship Series Game 2. In the history of best-of-7 MLB playoff series (all rounds), teams posting a 3-runs-1 Game 1 victory have a 3-5 series record with an active four-series losing streak, with road teams in that situation posting the 3-runs-1 Game 1 victory having a 2-1 series record.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2025 MLB regular season, the Toronto Blue Jays finished four games ahead of the Seattle Mariners. From 1905 through the 2024 MLB Finals round, when MLB teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by four regular-season games, they have posted a best-of-7 playoff series record of 9-5 (.643) in those series against those opponents. Best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1614 is the tenth best-of-7 MLB playoff series for the Toronto Blue Jays, and the fourth for the Seattle Mariners. In best-of-7 MLB playoff series, the Toronto Blue Jays have an all-rounds series record of 4-5, a Semifinals-round series record of 2-5, and a Game 1 record of 3-6, while the Seattle Mariners have an all-rounds series record of 0-3, a Semifinals-round series record of 0-3, and a Game 1 record of 2-1. Series 1614 is the first best-of-7 MLB playoff series meeting between the Toronto Blue Jays and the Seattle Mariners. Both the Toronto Blue Jays and the Seattle Mariners began MLB play in 1977.