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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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2024 NHL Finals round - Series 1565.
Edmonton Oilers vs Florida Panthers

Schedule and 2023-24 Results
Regular Season Records: Florida 52-24-6=110pts, Edmonton 49-27-6=104pts
Game 1 on Saturday, 08 June: Edmonton loses at Florida, 3-goals-nil
Game 2 on Monday, 10 June: Edmonton loses at Florida, 4-goals-1
Game 3 on Thursday, 13 June: Florida at Edmonton
Game 4 on Saturday, 15 June: Florida at Edmonton
Game 5* on Tuesday, 18 June: Edmonton at Florida
Game 6* on Friday, 21 June: Florida at Edmonton
Game 7* on Monday, 24 June: Edmonton at Florida
* if needed

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading 2-games-nil:
Ignoring win order; ignoring site order: The team leading 2-games-nil irrespective of site order (Florida) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2024 NBA/NHL Semifinals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 749-99 (.883)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Finals round: 124-20 (.861)
series record, NHL only, all rounds: 351-56 (.862)
series record, NHL only, Finals round: 49-5 (.907)
Game 3 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 405-443 (.478)
Game 3 record, all best-of-7 sports, Finals round: 66-78 (.458)
Game 3 record, NHL only, all rounds: 209-198 (.514)
Game 3 record, NHL only, Finals round: 28-26 (.519)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1578 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2024 NBA/NHL Semifinals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading 2-games-nil @ HH:
Ignoring win order; considering site order: The team leading 2-games-nil with site order HH (Florida) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2024 NBA/NHL Semifinals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 587-68 (.896)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Finals round: 97-15 (.866)
series record, NHL only, all rounds: 261-34 (.885)
series record, NHL only, Finals round: 38-3 (.927)
Game 3 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 301-354 (.460)
Game 3 record, all best-of-7 sports, Finals round: 44-68 (.393)
Game 3 record, NHL only, all rounds: 150-145 (.508)
Game 3 record, NHL only, Finals round: 17-24 (.415)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1578 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2024 NBA/NHL Semifinals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 2: The Florida Panthers hosted and bested the Edmonton Oilers 4-goals-1 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1565 lead of 2-games-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Florida Panthers have a series record of 4-0 and a Game 3 record of 4-0. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Edmonton Oilers have a series record of 1-9 and a Game 3 record of 5-5. The sole best-of-7 NHL playoff series victory by the Edmonton Oilers in the wake of a 2-games-nil deficit occurred in series 967, over the San Jose Sharks in the 2006 NHL Quarterfinals.

After Game 1: The Florida Panthers hosted and shut out the Edmonton Oilers 3-games-nil to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1565 lead of 1-game-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Florida Panthers have a series record of 7-1 (with a four-series winning streak) and a Game 2 record of 4-4. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Edmonton Oilers have a series record of 13-14 and a Game 2 record of 17-10. Leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Florida Panthers suffered their sole series loss in series 726, to the New York Rangers in five games in the 1997 NHL Preliminary round. In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff series, home teams winning Game 1 at home 3-goals-nil have a 9-6 series record (all rounds).

Pre-series assessment: In the 2023-24 NHL regular season, the Florida Panthers finished six points ahead of the Edmonton Oilers. From 1939 through the 2024 NHL Semifinals round, when NHL teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by six regular-season points, they have posted a best-of-7 playoff series record of 23-11 (.676) in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1565 is the 19th best-of-7 NHL playoff series for the Florida Panthers, and the 54th for the Edmonton Oilers. In best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Florida Panthers have an all-rounds series record of 10-8, a Finals-round series record of 0-2, and a Game 1 record of 8-10, while the Edmonton Oilers have an all-rounds series record of 36-17, a Finals-round series record of 5-2, and a Game 1 record of 26-27. Series 1565 is the first best-of-7 NHL playoff series meeting between the Florida Panthers and the Edmonton Oilers. The two best-of-7 NHL Finals series losses by the Florida Panthers were in series 712 (to the Colorado Avalanche in the 1996 NHL Finals) and in series 1532 (to the Vegas Golden Knights in the 2023 NHL Finals). The two best-of-7 NHL Finals series losses by the Edmonton Oilers were in series 418 (to the New York Islanders in the 1983 NHL Finals) and in series 971 (to the Carolina Hurricanes in the 2006 NHL Finals).