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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 GREATEST COMEBACK EVER
Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2024 NHL Semifinals round - Series 1564.
Edmonton Oilers vs Dallas Stars

Schedule and 2023-24 Results
Regular Season Records: Dallas 52-21-9=113pts, Edmonton 49-27-6=104pts
Game 1 on Thursday, 23 May: Edmonton wins at Dallas, 3-goals-2(2OT)
Game 2 on Saturday, 25 May: Edmonton loses at Dallas, 3-goals-1
Game 3 on Monday, 27 May: Dallas wins at Edmonton, 5-goals-3
Game 4 on Wednesday, 29 May: Dallas loses at Edmonton, 5-goals-2
Game 5 on Friday, 31 May: Edmonton wins at Dallas, 3-goals-1
Game 6 on Sunday, 02 June: Dallas loses at Edmonton, 2-goals-1

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 6: The Edmonton Oilers hosted and defeated the Dallas Stars 2-goals-1 to complete a 4-games-2 best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1564 victory. With the series 1564 win, the Edmonton Oilers improve their best-of-7 NHL playoff series record to 36-17 overall and 8-3 in the Semifinals round. With the series 1564 loss, the Dallas Stars see their best-of-7 NHL playoff series record fall to 23-18 overall and 3-4 in the Semifinals round. The win order for the victorious Edmonton Oilers in series 1564 was WLLWWW: Series 1564 thus becomes the fourth NHL Semifinals-round series, the 30th NHL series (all rounds), and the 45th MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow that win order to completion. The previous two teams to post a WLLWWW win order in the best-of-7 NHL Semifinals (before the Edmonton Oilers in series 1564 and the Florida Panthers the night before in series 1563) were the New York Rangers (over the Boston Bruins in series 35, in the 1940 NHL Semifinals) and the Edmonton Oilers (over the Chicago Blackhawks in series 564, in the 1990 NHL Semifinals); both the 1940 New York Rangers and the 1990 Edmonton Oilers won the NHL championship. The Edmonton Oilers scored their first goal of series 1564 Game 6 at 4:17 into the first period: Once before in a best-of-7 NHL playoff game did the Oilers in Edmonton tally their first goal at 4:17 into the first period (against the Detroit Red Wings, in series 961 in the 2006 NHL Preliminary-round Game 3; the Edmonton Oilers made their last best-of-7 NHL Finals appearance in 2006).

After Game 5: The Edmonton Oilers visited and bested the Dallas Stars 3-goals-1 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1564 lead of 3-games-2. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Edmonton Oilers have a series record of 13-1 (with an active ten-series winning streak) and a Game 6 record of 9-5 (with an active four-Game 6 winning streak). When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Dallas Stars have a series record of 1-11 (with an active nine-series losing streak) and a Game 6 record of 5-7. In best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the sole loss by the Edmonton Oilers in the wake of a 3-games-2 lead occurred in series 533, to the Los Angeles Kings in the 1989 NHL Preliminary round, while the sole win by the Dallas Stars in the wake of a 3-games-2 deficit occurred in series 786, over the Colorado Avalanche in the 1999 NHL Semifinals round.

After Game 4: The Edmonton Oilers hosted and defeated the Dallas Stars 5-goals-2 to knot best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1564 at 2-games-all. When tied 2-games-all in a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, the Dallas Stars have a series record of 12-5 and a Game 5 record of 12-5, while the Edmonton Oilers have a series record of 10-5 and a Game 5 record of 8-7. The series 1564 Game 4 loss by the Dallas Stars ends their best-of-7 NHL playoff Game 4 winning streak at five Game 4s (irrespective of Games 1-3 outcomes); the series 1564 Game 4 win by the Edmonton Oilers extends their best-of-7 NHL playoff Game 4 winning streak to five Game 4s (irrespective of Games 1-3 outcomes).

After Game 3: The Dallas Stars visited and defeated the Edmonton Oilers 5-goals-3 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1564 lead of 2-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Dallas Stars have a series record of 13-1 and a Game 4 record of 8-6. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Edmonton Oilers have a series record of 6-9 and a Game 4 record of 7-8. The sole best-of-7 NHL playoff series loss by the Dallas Stars in the wake of a 2-games-1 series lead occurred in series 1491, to the Calgary Flames in seven games in the 2022 NHL Preliminary round. The Dallas Stars trailed the host Edmonton Oilers by two goals as late as 5:34 into the second period of series 1564 Game 3, but prevailed: In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff games from 1939 through 2023, inclusive, road teams down two goals as late as 5:34 into the second period had a game record of only 53-414 (.113) - the Dallas Stars thus achieve a grade-B (.100 - .199) in-game comeback to take their 2-games-1 lead over the Edmonton Oilers.

After Game 2: The Dallas Stars hosted and defeated the Edmonton Oilers 3-goals-1 to tie best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1564 at 1-game-all. When tied 1-game-all in a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, the Dallas Stars have a series record of 12-8 and a Game 3 record of 7-13, while the Edmonton Oilers have a series record of 20-7 and a Game 3 record of 17-10. In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff series, teams such as the Dallas Stars in series 1564 which lose Game 1 by a goal and win Game 2 by two goals (both on home ice) have an 18-10 (.643) series record with an active five-series winning streak; the Dallas Stars themselves have a 4-0 series record in that situation.

After Game 1: The Edmonton Oilers visited and bested the Dallas Stars 3-goals-2(2OT) to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1564 lead of 1-game-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Edmonton Oilers have a series record of 22-3 and a Game 2 record of 15-10. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Dallas Stars have a series record of 9-14 and a Game 2 record of 13-10. With their series 1564 Game 1 loss, the Dallas Stars have now lost seven consecutive Game 1s in best-of-7 NHL playoff series.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2023-24 NHL regular season, the Dallas Stars finished nine points ahead of the Edmonton Oilers. From 1939 through the 2024 NHL Quarterfinals round, when NHL teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by nine regular-season points, they have posted a best-of-7 playoff series record of 19-20 (.487) in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1564 is the 41st best-of-7 NHL playoff series for the Dallas Stars, and the 53rd for the Edmonton Oilers. In best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Dallas Stars have an all-rounds series record of 23-17, a Semifinals-round series record of 3-3, and a Game 1 record of 17-23 (with an active six-Game 1 losing streak), while the Edmonton Oilers have an all-rounds series record of 35-17, a Semifinals-round series record of 7-3, and a Game 1 record of 25-27. Series 1564 is the seventh best-of-7 NHL playoff series meeting between the Dallas Stars and the Edmonton Oilers. In their previous six best-of-7 NHL playoff series meetings, the Edmonton Oilers defeated the Dallas Stars in the first such series, but Dallas defeated Edmonton in their last five such series.