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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
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Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
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Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2024 NHL Preliminary round - Series 1551.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Florida Panthers

Schedule and 2023-24 Results
Regular Season Records: Florida 52-24-6=110pts, Tampa Bay 45-29-8=98pts
Game 1 on Sunday, 21 April: Tampa Bay loses at Florida, 3-goals-2
Game 2 on Tuesday, 23 April: Tampa Bay loses at Florida, 3-goals-2(OT)
Game 3 on Thursday, 25 April: Florida wins at Tampa Bay, 5-goals-3
Game 4 on Saturday, 27 April: Florida loses at Tampa Bay, 6-goals-3
Game 5 on Monday, 29 April: Tampa Bay loses at Florida, 6-goals-1

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 5: The Florida Panthers hosted and bested the Tampa Bay Lightning 6-goals-1 to complete a 4-games-1 best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1551 victory. With the series 1551 win, the Florida Panthers improve their best-of-7 NHL playoff series record to 8-8 overall and 4-5 in the Preliminary round. With the series 1551 loss, the Tampa Bay Lightning see their best-of-7 NHL playoff series record fall to 25-13 overall and 9-7 in the Preliminary round. The win order for the victorious Florida Panthers in series 1551 was WWWLW: Series 1551 thus becomes the 19th NHL Preliminary-round series, the 55th NHL series (all rounds), and the 104th MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow that win order to completion. Series 1551 becomes the first Florida Panthers series victory in three tries against the Tampa Bay Lightning in best-of-7 NHL playoff series.

After Game 4: The Tampa Bay Lightning hosted and bested the Florida Panthers 6-goals-3 to drop the Florida Panthers best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL series 1551 lead to 3-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Florida Panthers have a series record of 2-0 and a Game 5 record of 2-0. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a series record of 1-4 and a Game 5 record of 3-2. In both previous best-of-7 NHL playoff series in which the Florida Panthers led 3-games-1, the Panthers lost Game 4 but won Game 5 to win the series (in series 701, over the Boston Bruins in the 1996 NHL Preliminary round; in series 1526, over the Toronto Maple Leafs in the 2023 NHL Quarterfinals). In all five previous best-of-7 NHL playoff series in which the Tampa Bay Lightning had trailed 3-games-1, Tampa had lost all five Game 4s. The sole previous best-of-7 NHL playoff series in which Tampa rallied to surmount a 3-games-1 deficit was series 1125, over the Pittsburgh Penguins in the 2011 NHL Preliminary round.

After Game 3: The Florida Panthers visited and defeated the Tampa Bay Lightning 5-goals-3 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1551 lead of 3-games-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-nil, the Florida Panthers have a series record of 3-0 and a Game 4 record of 1-2. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-nil, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a series record of 0-2 and a Game 4 record of 0-2. By winning series 1551 Game 3, the Florida Panthers extend their best-of-7 NHL playoff Game 3 winning streak to four games. The Florida Panthers have become the 397th MLB/NBA/NHL team to take a three-games-nil lead in a best-of-7 playoff series; the Tampa Bay Lightning will attempt to become the sixth MLB/NBA/NHL team to surmount a three-games-nil deficit to win four-games-three.

After Game 2: The Florida Panthers hosted and defeated the Tampa Bay Lightning 3-goals-2(OT) to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1551 lead of 2-games-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Florida Panthers have a series record of 3-0 and a Game 3 record of 3-0. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a series record of 2-5 and a Game 3 record of 5-2. The last best-of-7 NHL playoff series in which the Tampa Bay Lightning trailed 2-games-nil but prevailed was series 1497, in which Tampa Bay defeated the New York Rangers in six games in the 2022 NHL Semifinals.

After Game 1: The Florida Panthers hosted and bested the Tampa Bay Lightning 3-goals-2 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1551 lead of 1-game-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Florida Panthers have a series record of 5-1 and a Game 2 record of 3-3. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a series record of 12-9 and a Game 2 record of 14-7. The sole best-of-7 NHL playoff series loss by the Florida Panthers in the wake of a 1-game-nil lead occurred in series 726, to the New York Rangers in five games in the 1997 NHL Preliminary round.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2023-24 NHL regular season, the Florida Panthers finished 12 points ahead of the Tampa Bay Lightning. From 1939 through the 2023 NHL Finals round, when NHL teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by 12 regular-season points, they have posted a best-of-7 playoff series record of 13-10 (.565) in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1551 is the sixteenth best-of-7 NHL playoff series for the Florida Panthers, and the 38th for the Tampa Bay Lightning. In best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Florida Panthers have an all-rounds series record of 7-8, a Preliminary-round series record of 3-5, and a Game 1 record of 6-9, while the Tampa Bay Lightning have an all-rounds series record of 25-12, a Preliminary-round series record of 9-6, and a Game 1 record of 16-21. Series 1551 is the third best-of-7 NHL playoff series meeting between the Florida Panthers and the Tampa Bay Lightning. The Tampa Bay Lightning won both of their previous two best-of-7 NHL playoff series meetings against the Florida Panthers (series 1455, in the 2021 NHL Preliminary round; series 1493, in the 2022 NHL Quarterfinals round).