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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 GREATEST COMEBACK EVER
Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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SEARCH RESULTS
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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2024 NBA Finals round - Series 1580.
Dallas Mavericks vs Boston Celtics

Schedule and 2023-24 Results
Regular Season Records: Boston 64-18, Dallas 50-32
Game 1 on Thursday, 06 June: Dallas loses at Boston, 107-pts-89
Game 2 on Sunday, 09 June: Dallas loses at Boston, 105-pts-98
Game 3 on Wednesday, 12 June: Boston wins at Dallas, 106-pts-99
Game 4 on Friday, 14 June: Boston at Dallas
Game 5* on Monday, 17 June: Dallas at Boston
Game 6* on Thursday, 20 June: Boston at Dallas
Game 7* on Sunday, 23 June: Dallas at Boston
* if needed

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading 3-games-nil:
Ignoring win order; ignoring site order: The team leading 3-games-nil irrespective of site order (Boston) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2024 NBA/NHL Semifinals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 400-5 (.988)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Finals round: 65-1 (.985)
series record, NBA only, all rounds: 156-0 (1.000)
series record, NBA only, Finals round: 14-0 (1.000)
Game 4 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 255-150 (.630)
Game 4 record, all best-of-7 sports, Finals round: 50-16 (.758)
Game 4 record, NBA only, all rounds: 95-61 (.609)
Game 4 record, NBA only, Finals round: 9-5 (.643)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1578 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2024 NBA/NHL Semifinals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading 3-games-nil @ HHV:
Ignoring win order; considering site order: The team leading 3-games-nil with site order HHV (Boston) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2024 NBA/NHL Semifinals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 297-4 (.987)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Finals round: 44-0 (1.000)
series record, NBA only, all rounds: 128-0 (1.000)
series record, NBA only, Finals round: 11-0 (1.000)
Game 4 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 185-116 (.615)
Game 4 record, all best-of-7 sports, Finals round: 32-12 (.727)
Game 4 record, NBA only, all rounds: 77-51 (.602)
Game 4 record, NBA only, Finals round: 6-5 (.545)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1578 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2024 NBA/NHL Semifinals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 3: The Boston Celtics visited and defeated the Dallas Mavericks 106-pts-99 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1580 lead of 3-games-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-nil, the Boston Celtics have a series record of 18-0 and a Game 4 record of 9-9 (with an active four-Game 4 winning streak). When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-nil, the Dallas Mavericks have a series record of 0-5 and a Game 4 record of 4-1. With their series 1580 Game 3 victory, the Boston Celtics become the 406th MLB/NBA/NHL team and the 157th NBA team to take a 3-games-nil series lead in a best-of-7 playoff series, and the Dallas Mavericks will attempt to become the first NBA team to surmount such a deficit for a 4-games-3 comeback series victory. The Boston Celtics are poised to achieve the first NBA Finals sweep by an NBA Eastern Conference champion since the Detroit Pistons achieved the feat in the 1989 NBA Finals against the Los Angeles Lakers.

After Game 2: The Boston Celtics hosted and defeated the Dallas Mavericks 105-pts-98 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1580 lead of 2-games-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Boston Celtics have a series record of 43-1 (with an active six-series winning streak) and a Game 3 record of 18-26. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Dallas Mavericks have a series record of 2-10 and a Game 3 record of 7-5. The sole best-of-7 NBA playoff series loss by the Boston Celtics in the wake of a 2-games-nil lead occurred in series 1380, to the Cleveland Cavaliers in the 2018 NBA Semifinals. The two best-of-7 NBA playoff series wins by the Dallas Mavericks in the wake of a 2-games-nil deficit occurred in series 946, over the Houston Rockets in the 2005 NBA Preliminary round, and in series 1510, over the Phoenix Suns in the 2022 NBA Quarterfinals.

After Game 1: The Boston Celtics hosted and bested the Dallas Mavericks 107-pts-89 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1580 lead of 1-game-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Boston Celtics have a series record of 63-8 (with an active four-series winning streak) and a Game 2 record of 44-27. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Dallas Mavericks have a series record of 10-16 and a Game 2 record of 14-12. With their series 1580 Game 1 victory, the Boston Celtics now have an active four-Game 1 winning streak in best-of-7 NBA playoff series.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2023-24 NBA regular season, the Boston Celtics finished fourteen games ahead of the Dallas Mavericks. From 1947 through the 2024 NBA Semifinals round, when NBA teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by fourteen regular-season games, they have posted a best-of-7 playoff series record of 19-1 (.950) in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1580 is the 110th best-of-7 NBA playoff series for the Boston Celtics, and the 38th for the Dallas Mavericks. In best-of-7 NBA playoff series, the Boston Celtics have an all-rounds series record of 77-32, a Finals-round series record of 17-5, and a Game 1 record of 71-38, while the Dallas Mavericks have an all-rounds series record of 17-20, a Finals-round series record of 1-1, and a Game 1 record of 11-26. Series 1580 is the first best-of-7 NBA playoff series meeting between the Boston Celtics and the Dallas Mavericks. In the history of best-of-7 NBA playoff series, teams leading their opponents by fourteen regular-season games have a 19-1 (.950) record in those series, but the sole loss occurred in the last such series (series 1533, with the favored Milwaukee Bucks losing to the underdog Miami Heat in the 2023 NBA Preliminary round).