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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2023 NHL Finals round - Series 1532.
Florida Panthers vs Vegas Golden Knights

Schedule and 2022-23 Results
Regular Season Records: Vegas 51-22-9=111pts, Florida 42-32-8=92pts
Game 1 on Saturday, 03 June: Florida loses at Vegas, 5-goals-2
Game 2 on Monday, 05 June: Florida loses at Vegas, 7-goals-2
Game 3 on Thursday, 08 June: Vegas loses at Florida, 3-goals-2(OT)
Game 4 on Saturday, 10 June: Vegas wins at Florida, 3-goals-2
Game 5 on Tuesday, 13 June: Florida loses at Vegas, 9-goals-3

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 5: The Vegas Golden Knights hosted and defeated the Florida Panthers 9-goals-3 to complete a 4-games-1 best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1532 victory. With the series 1532 win, the Vegas Golden Knights improve their best-of-7 NHL playoff series record to 11-4 overall and 1-1 in the Finals round. With the series 1532 loss, the Florida Panthers see their best-of-7 NHL playoff series record fall to 7-8 overall and 0-2 in the Finals round. The win order for the victorious Vegas Golden Knights in series 1532 was WWLWW: Series 1532 thus becomes the sixth NHL Finals-round series, the 51st NHL series (all rounds), and the 131st MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow that win order to completion. The 2023 best-of-7 NHL playoff season required 88 games to crown a champion, down from 89 in 2022 but up from 84 in 2021. Since the NHL adopted the format of four best-of-7 playoff rounds in 1987, the most games in a best-of-7 NHL playoff season have been 93 (in 2014), while the fewest games in a best-of-7 NHL playoff season have been 81 (in 1995 and in 2007). The nine goals by the victorious Vegas Golden Knights in series 1532 Game 5 are the most ever by one team to win a best-of-7 NHL championship-clinching Finals-round game, breaking the previous record of eight such goals (set by the Edmonton Oilers at home against the Philadelphia Flyers in 1985 NHL Finals Game 5, and tied by the Pittsburgh Penguins in Minnesota against the old Minnesota North Stars in 1991 NHL Finals Game 6).

After Game 4: The Vegas Golden Knights visited and topped the Florida Panthers 3-goals-2 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1532 lead of 3-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Vegas Golden Knights have a series record of 6-1 and a Game 5 record of 3-4. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Florida Panthers have a series record of 1-2 and a Game 5 record of 2-1. Leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Vegas Golden Knights suffered their sole series defeat in series 1393, to the San Jose Sharks in the 2019 NHL Preliminary round. Trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Florida Panthers achieved their sole series victory in series 1518, over the Boston Bruins in the 2023 NHL Preliminary round.

After Game 3: The Florida Panthers hosted and bested the Vegas Golden Knights 3-goals-2(OT) to reduce the Vegas Golden Knights best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL series 1532 lead to 2-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Vegas Golden Knights have a series record of 6-1 and a Game 4 record of 5-2. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Florida Panthers have a series record of 3-3 and a Game 4 record of 3-3. Series 1532 Game 3 becomes the second best-of-7 NHL playoff game to end 4:27 into the first overtime period; the first such game was series 1159 Game 5, won by the Los Angeles Kings over the Canucks in Vancouver to complete a 2012 NHL Preliminary-round series victory (en route to the 2012 NHL championship). The Florida Panthers trailed the visiting Vegas Golden Knights by one goal as late as 17:46 into the third period but prevailed: In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff games from 1939 through 2022, inclusive, home teams down one goal as late as 17:46 into the third period had a game record of only 55-575 (.087) - the Florida Panthers thus achieve a grade-A (.000-.099) in-game comeback. Leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Vegas Golden Knights suffered their sole series defeat in series 1393, to the San Jose Sharks in the 2019 NHL Preliminary round.

After Game 2: The Vegas Golden Knights hosted and defeated the Florida Panthers 7-goals-2 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1532 lead of 2-games-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Vegas Golden Knights have a series record of 3-0 and a Game 3 record of 3-0. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Florida Panthers have a series record of 0-4 and a Game 3 record of 1-3. In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff series, teams winning Game 1 by three goals and Game 2 by five goals (as the Vegas Golden Knights have in series 1532) have a 3-1 (.750) overall series record; the sole loss was sustained in the last such series, in series 1228 by the San Jose Sharks in the 2014 NHL Preliminary round (the Sharks were the last MLB/NBA/NHL team to take a 3-games-nil lead in a best-of-7 playoff series but lose 4-games-3).

After Game 1: The Vegas Golden Knights hosted and bested the Florida Panthers 5-goals-2 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1532 lead of 1-game-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Vegas Golden Knights have a series record of 6-2 and a Game 2 record of 3-5. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Florida Panthers have a series record of 2-6 and a Game 2 record of 4-4. In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff series, home teams winning Game 1 by three goals (as the Vegas Golden Knights have in series 1532) have a 71-27 (.725) overall series record and a 6-2 (.750) Finals-round series record.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2022-23 NHL regular season, the Vegas Golden Knights finished 19 points ahead of the Florida Panthers. From 1939 through the 2023 NHL Semifinals round, when NHL teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by 19 regular-season points, they have posted a best-of-7 playoff series record of 6-10 (.375) in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1532 is the 15th best-of-7 NHL playoff series for the Vegas Golden Knights, and the 15th for the Florida Panthers. In best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Vegas Golden Knights have an all-rounds series record of 10-4, a Finals-round series record of 0-1, and a Game 1 record of 8-6, while the Florida Panthers have an all-rounds series record of 7-7, a Finals-round series record of 0-1, and a Game 1 record of 6-8. Series 1532 is the first best-of-7 NHL playoff series meeting between the Vegas Golden Knights and the Florida Panthers. Both 2023 NHL Finalists are competing in their fifteenth best-of-7 NHL playoff series, even though the Vegas Golden Knights debuted in 2017-18 while the Florida Panthers debuted in 1993-94.