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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
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Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2023 NHL Semifinals round - Series 1531.
Dallas Stars vs Vegas Golden Knights

Schedule and 2022-23 Results
Regular Season Records: Vegas 51-22-9=111pts, Dallas 47-21-14=108pts
Game 1 on Friday, 19 May: Dallas loses at Vegas, 4-goals-3(OT)
Game 2 on Sunday, 21 May: Dallas loses at Vegas, 3-goals-2(OT)
Game 3 on Tuesday, 23 May: Vegas wins at Dallas, 4-goals-nil
Game 4 on Thursday, 25 May: Vegas loses at Dallas, 3-goals-2(OT)
Game 5 on Saturday, 27 May: Dallas wins at Vegas, 4-goals-2
Game 6 on Monday, 29 May: Vegas wins at Dallas, 6-goals-nil

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 6: The Vegas Golden Knights visited and shut out the Dallas Stars 6-goals-nil to complete a 4-games-2 best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1531 victory. With the series 1531 win, the Vegas Golden Knights improve their best-of-7 NHL playoff series record to 10-4 overall and 2-2 in the Semifinals round. With the series 1531 loss, the Dallas Stars see their best-of-7 NHL playoff series record fall to 21-17 overall and 3-3 in the Semifinals round. The win order for the victorious Vegas Golden Knights in series 1531 was WWWLLW: Series 1531 thus becomes the third NHL Semifinals-round series, the 14th NHL series (all rounds), and the 27th MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow that win order to completion. With their series 1531 win, the Vegas Golden Knights extend the best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series winning streak by teams having held a 3-games-nil lead to 77 series.

After Game 5: The Dallas Stars visited and topped the Vegas Golden Knights 4-goals-2 to reduce the Vegas Golden Knights best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL series 1531 lead to 3-games-2. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Vegas Golden Knights have a series record of 5-1 (with an active four-series winning streak) and a Game 6 record of 3-3. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Dallas Stars have a series record of 1-10 (with an active eight-series losing streak) and a Game 6 record of 5-6. Trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Dallas Stars achieved their sole series victory in series 786, over the Colorado Avalanche in the 1999 NHL Semifinals.

After Game 4: The Dallas Stars hosted and defeated the Vegas Golden Knights 3-goals-2(OT) to reduce the Vegas Golden Knights best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL series 1531 lead to 3-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Vegas Golden Knights have a series record of 5-1 (with an active four-series winning streak) and a Game 5 record of 3-3. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Dallas Stars have a series record of 0-10 and a Game 5 record of 6-4.

After Game 3: The Vegas Golden Knights visited and shut out the Dallas Stars 4-goals-nil to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1531 lead of 3-games-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-nil, the Vegas Golden Knights have a series record of 2-0 and a Game 4 record of 1-1. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-nil, the Dallas Stars have a series record of 0-4 and a Game 4 record of 3-1.

After Game 2: The Vegas Golden Knights hosted and bested the Dallas Stars 3-goals-2(OT) to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1531 lead of 2-games-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Vegas Golden Knights have a series record of 2-0 and a Game 3 record of 2-0. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Dallas Stars have a series record of 0-8 and a Game 3 record of 4-4. Irrespective of Games 1-2 outcomes, the Vegas Golden Knights have seen their Game 3 outcome match their series outcome in their last eight best-of-7 NHL playoff series (six wins, two losses). The Vegas Golden Knights trailed the visiting Dallas Stars by one goal as late as 17:57 into the third period of series 1531 Game 2, but prevailed: In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff games from 1939 through 2022, inclusive, home teams down one goal as late as 17:57 into the third period had a game record of only 55-578 (.087) - the Vegas Golden Knights thus achieve a grade-A in-game comeback in series 1531 Game 2.

After Game 1: The Vegas Golden Knights hosted and defeated the Dallas Stars 4-goals-3(OT) to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1531 lead of 1-game-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Vegas Golden Knights have a series record of 5-2 and a Game 2 record of 2-5. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Dallas Stars have a series record of 7-13 and a Game 2 record of 12-8. In the wake of their series 1531 Game 1 loss, the Dallas Stars now have a four-Game 1 losing streak in best-of-7 NHL playoff series. Trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, however, the Dallas Stars have an active five-Game 2 winning streak entering series 1531 Game 2.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2022-23 NHL regular season, the Vegas Golden Knights finished three points ahead of the Dallas Stars. From 1939 through the 2023 NHL Quarterfinals round, when NHL teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by three regular-season points, they have posted a best-of-7 playoff series record of 16-22 (.421) in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1531 is the 14th best-of-7 NHL playoff series for the Vegas Golden Knights, and the 38th for the Dallas Stars. In best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Vegas Golden Knights have an all-rounds series record of 9-4, a Semifinals-round series record of 1-2, and a Game 1 record of 7-6, while the Dallas Stars have an all-rounds series record of 21-16, a Semifinals-round series record of 3-2, and a Game 1 record of 17-20. Series 1531 is the second best-of-7 NHL playoff series meeting between the Vegas Golden Knights and the Dallas Stars. Dallas won their only previous best-of-7 NHL playoff series with Vegas, in series 1432 in five games in the 2020 NHL Semifinals round.