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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2023 NHL Preliminary round - Series 1524.
Winnipeg Jets (II) vs Vegas Golden Knights

Schedule and 2022-23 Results:
Regular Season Records: Vegas 51-22-9=111pts, Winnipeg (II) 46-33-3=95pts
Game 1 on Tuesday, 18 April: Winnipeg (II) wins at Vegas, 5-goals-1
Game 2 on Thursday, 20 April: Winnipeg (II) loses at Vegas, 5-goals-2
Game 3 on Saturday, 22 April: Vegas wins at Winnipeg (II), 5-goals-4(2OT)
Game 4 on Monday, 24 April: Vegas wins at Winnipeg (II), 4-goals-2
Game 5 on Thursday, 27 April: Winnipeg (II) loses at Vegas, 4-goals-1

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 5: The Vegas Golden Knights hosted and bested the Winnipeg Jets (II) 4-goals-1 to complete a 4-games-1 best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1524 victory. With the series 1524 win, the Vegas Golden Knights improve their best-of-7 NHL playoff series record to 8-4 overall and 4-1 in the Preliminary round. With the series 1524 loss, the Winnipeg Jets (II) see their best-of-7 NHL playoff series record fall to 3-5 overall and 2-3 in the Preliminary round. The win order for the victorious Vegas Golden Knights in series 1524 was LWWWW: Series 1524 thus becomes the 12th NHL Preliminary-round series, the 41st NHL series (all rounds), and the 75th MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow that win order to completion. With their series 1524 loss, the Winnipeg Jets (II) now have a 0-3 best-of-7 NHL playoff series record upon having trailed such a series 2-games-1.

After Game 4: The Vegas Golden Knights visited and bested the Winnipeg Jets (II) 4-goals-2 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1524 lead of 3-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Vegas Golden Knights have a series record of 4-1 and a Game 5 record of 2-3. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Winnipeg Jets (II) have a series record of 0-1 and a Game 5 record of 0-1. The sole loss by the Vegas Golden Knights upon leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 3-games-1 occurred in series 1393, in the 2019 NHL Quarterfinals to the San Jose Sharks. The sole previous best-of-7 NHL playoff series previously trailed by the Winnipeg Jets (II) 3-games-1 was series 1366, in the 2018 NHL Semifinals to the Vegas Golden Knights; Vegas would win that series in five games.

After Game 3: The Vegas Golden Knights visited and outscored the Winnipeg Jets (II) 5-goals-4(2OT) to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1524 lead of 2-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Vegas Golden Knights have a series record of 4-1 and a Game 4 record of 4-1 (with an active four-Game 4 winning streak). When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Winnipeg Jets (II) have a series record of 0-2 and a Game 4 record of 1-1. Upon opening a best-of-7 NHL playoff series with a win-order of LWW (as the Vegas Golden Knights have done in series 1524), the Vegas Golden Knights have a 2-1 series record.

After Game 2: The Vegas Golden Knights hosted and defeated the Winnipeg Jets (II) 5-goals-2 to tie best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1524 at 1-game-all. When tied 1-game-all in a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, the Vegas Golden Knights have a series record of 4-4 and a Game 3 record of 5-3, while the Winnipeg Jets (II) have a series record of 1-1 and a Game 3 record of 1-1. In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff series, teams which lose Game 1 by four goals but win Game 2 by three goals (such as the Vegas Golden Knights in series 1524) have a 2-0 series record.

After Game 1: The Winnipeg Jets (II) visited and bested the Vegas Golden Knights 5-goals-1 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1524 lead of 1-game-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Winnipeg Jets (II) have a series record of 3-1 and a Game 2 record of 2-2. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Vegas Golden Knights have a series record of 3-2 and a Game 2 record of 4-1.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2022-23 NHL regular season, the Vegas Golden Knights finished 16 points ahead of the Winnipeg Jets (II). From 1939 through the 2022 NHL Finals round, when NHL teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by 16 regular-season points, they have posted a best-of-7 playoff series record of 14-5 (.737) in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1524 is the 12th best-of-7 NHL playoff series for the Vegas Golden Knights, and the eighth for the Winnipeg Jets (II). In best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Vegas Golden Knights have an all-rounds series record of 7-4, a Preliminary-round series record of 3-1, and a Game 1 record of 6-5, while the Winnipeg Jets (II) have an all-rounds series record of 3-4, a Preliminary-round series record of 2-2, and a Game 1 record of 4-3. Series 1524 is the second best-of-7 NHL playoff series meeting between the Vegas Golden Knights and the Winnipeg Jets (II). The Vegas Golden Knights defeated the Winnipeg Jets (II) in their only previous best-of-7 NHL playoff series meeting, in five games in the 2018 NHL Semifinals round (in best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1366).