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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
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QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
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BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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2023 NHL Preliminary round - Series 1519.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs

Schedule and 2022-23 Results:
Regular Season Records: Toronto 50-21-11=111pts, Tampa Bay 46-30-6=98pts
Game 1 on Tuesday, 18 April: Tampa Bay wins at Toronto, 7-goals-3
Game 2 on Thursday, 20 April: Tampa Bay loses at Toronto, 7-goals-2
Game 3 on Saturday, 22 April: Toronto wins at Tampa Bay, 4-goals-3(OT)
Game 4 on Monday, 24 April: Toronto wins at Tampa Bay, 5-goals-4(OT)
Game 5 on Thursday, 27 April: Tampa Bay wins at Toronto, 4-goals-2
Game 6 on Saturday, 29 April: Toronto wins at Tampa Bay, 2-goals-1(OT)

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 6: The Toronto Maple Leafs visited and defeated the Tampa Bay Lightning 2-goals-1(OT) to complete a 4-games-2 best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1519 victory. With the series 1519 win, the Toronto Maple Leafs improve their best-of-7 NHL playoff series record to 36-44 overall and 9-11 in the Preliminary round. With the series 1519 loss, the Tampa Bay Lightning see their best-of-7 NHL playoff series record fall to 25-12 overall and 9-6 in the Preliminary round. The win order for the victorious Toronto Maple Leafs in series 1519 was LWWWLW: Series 1519 thus becomes the eighth NHL Preliminary-round series, the 24th NHL series (all rounds), and the 54th MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow that win order to completion. With their series 1519 victory, the Toronto Maple Leafs end a best-of-7 NHL playoffs seven-series losing streak, end a six-Game 6 losing streak in best-of-7 NHL playoff series in the wake of a 3-games-2 series lead, and convert their first 3-games-1 lead in a best-of-7 NHL playoff series into a series win since the 1963 NHL Finals over the Detroit Red Wings (series 154). Once before did the Toronto Maple Leafs win a best-of-7 NHL playoff series with a LWWWLW win order, in the 1947 NHL Finals (over the Montreal Canadiens in series 62).

After Game 5: The Tampa Bay Lightning visited and defeated the Toronto Maple Leafs 4-goals-2 to reduce the Toronto Maple Leafs best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL series 1519 lead to 3-games-2. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Toronto Maple Leafs have a series record of 19-8 and a Game 6 record of 13-14 (with an active six-Game 6 losing streak). When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a series record of 4-5 and a Game 6 record of 5-4. The Toronto Maple Leafs have a 1-1 best-of-7 NHL playoff series record upon posting an LWWWL win order in such a series, winning the 1947 NHL Finals over the Montreal Canadiens, and losing in the 2021 NHL Preliminary round to the Montreal Canadiens.

After Game 4: The Toronto Maple Leafs visited and defeated the Tampa Bay Lightning 5-goals-4(OT) to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1519 lead of 3-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Toronto Maple Leafs have a series record of 11-2 and a Game 5 record of 7-6. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a series record of 1-3 and a Game 5 record of 2-2. The Toronto Maple Leafs trailed the host Tampa Bay Lightning by three goals as late as 9:43 into the third period but won: In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff games from 1939 through 2022, inclusive, road teams down three goals as late as 9:43 into the third period had a game record of only 1-332 (.003) - the Toronto Maple Leafs thus achieve a grade-A in-game comeback. The sole previous victory by a road team in that situation was tallied by the St. Louis Blues, which trailed the Kings in Los Angeles by three goals as late as 9:58 into the third period of series 755 Game 3 (in the 1998 NHL Preliminary round), but tallied four goals at 9:59, 11:03, 11:59, and 13:06 into the third period to record a 4-goals-3 comeback victory over the host Kings. Leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Toronto Maple Leafs have an 11-2 series record, with the losses occurring in the last two such series (series 486, to the Detroit Red Wings in the 1987 NHL Quarterfinals; series 1458, to the Montreal Canadiens in the 2021 NHL Preliminary round); the last win occurred in series 154 (in the 1963 NHL Finals over the Detroit Red Wings).

After Game 3: The Toronto Maple Leafs visited and defeated the Tampa Bay Lightning 4-goals-3(OT) to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1519 lead of 2-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Toronto Maple Leafs have a series record of 18-12 (with an active four-series losing streak) and a Game 4 record of 10-20. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a series record of 6-6 and a Game 4 record of 8-4. The Toronto Maple Leafs now have a five-Game 3 winning streak in best-of-7 NHL playoff series in the wake of a 1-game-all tie. The Toronto Maple Leafs trailed the host Tampa Bay Lightning by one goal as late as 18:59 into the third period but emerged victorious: In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff games from 1939 through 2022, inclusive, road teams down one goal as late as 18:59 into the third period had a game record of only 25-676 (.036) - the Toronto Maple Leafs thus achieve a grade-A in-game comeback.

After Game 2: The Toronto Maple Leafs hosted and defeated the Tampa Bay Lightning 7-goals-2 to knot best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1519 at 1-game-all. When tied 1-game-all in a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, the Toronto Maple Leafs have a series record of 16-24 (with an active five-series losing streak) and a Game 3 record of 18-22 (with an active four-Game 3 winning streak), while the Tampa Bay Lightning have a series record of 13-6 (with an active six-series winning streak) and a Game 3 record of 12-7. Series 1519 becomes the first best-of-7 NHL playoff series tied 1-game-all after the first two games in which each winning team tallied 7+ goals. The 19 total goals in the first two games of series 1519 are the most in a best-of-7 NHL Preliminary round since series 1158, in which the Philadelphia Flyers and Pittsburgh Penguins combined for 20 goals in the first two games of their 2012 NHL Preliminary-round series.

After Game 1: The Tampa Bay Lightning visited and defeated the Toronto Maple Leafs 7-goals-3 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1519 lead of 1-game-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a series record of 13-2 (with an active seven-series winning streak) and a Game 2 record of 10-5 (with an active five-Game 2 winning streak). When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Toronto Maple Leafs have a series record of 16-29 (with an active five-series losing streak) and a Game 2 record of 24-21. With its ten total goals, series 1519 becomes the highest-scoring best-of-7 NHL Preliminary-round Game 1 since series 755, in which the Blues in St. Louis defeated the Los Angeles Kings 8-goals-3 in Game 1 of their 1998 NHL Preliminary-round series.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2022-23 NHL regular season, the Toronto Maple Leafs finished 13 points ahead of the Tampa Bay Lightning. From 1939 through the 2022 NHL Finals round, when NHL teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by 13 regular-season points, they have posted a best-of-7 playoff series record of 15-10 (.600) in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1519 is the 80th best-of-7 NHL playoff series for the Toronto Maple Leafs, and the 37th for the Tampa Bay Lightning. In best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Toronto Maple Leafs have an all-rounds series record of 35-44 (with an active seven-series losing streak), a Preliminary-round series record of 8-11, and a Game 1 record of 34-45, while the Tampa Bay Lightning have an all-rounds series record of 25-11, a Preliminary-round series record of 9-5, and a Game 1 record of 15-21. Series 1519 is the second best-of-7 NHL playoff series meeting between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Tampa Bay Lightning. The Tampa Bay Lightning defeated the Toronto Maple Leafs in their only previous best-of-7 NHL playoff series meeting, in seven games in the 2022 NHL Preliminary round (in best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1486).