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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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2022 NHL Semifinals round - Series 1497.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs New York Rangers

Schedule and 2021-22 Results
Regular Season Records: New York Rangers 52-24-6=110pts, Tampa Bay 51-23-8=110pts
Game 1 on Wednesday, 01 June: Tampa Bay loses at New York Rangers, 6-goals-2
Game 2 on Friday, 03 June: Tampa Bay loses at New York Rangers, 3-goals-2
Game 3 on Sunday, 05 June: New York Rangers lose at Tampa Bay, 3-goals-2
Game 4 on Tuesday, 07 June: New York Rangers lose at Tampa Bay, 4-goals-1
Game 5 on Thursday, 09 June: Tampa Bay wins at New York Rangers, 3-goals-1
Game 6 on Saturday, 11 June: New York Rangers lose at Tampa Bay, 2-goals-1

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 6: The Tampa Bay Lightning hosted and defeated the New York Rangers 2-goals-1 to complete a 4-games-2 best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1497 victory. With the series 1497 win, the Tampa Bay Lightning improve their best-of-7 NHL playoff series record to 25-10 (with an active 11-series winning streak befitting a two-time NHL champion) overall and 5-3 in the Semifinals round. With the series 1497 loss, the New York Rangers see their best-of-7 NHL playoff series record fall to 35-42 overall and 6-17 in the Semifinals round. The win order for the victorious Tampa Bay Lightning in series 1497 was LLWWWW: Series 1497 thus becomes the fifth NHL Semifinals-round series, the 25th NHL series (all rounds), and the 43rd MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow that win order to completion. Series 1497 Game 6 becomes the second best-of-7 NHL playoff game in which the home team scored its first goal 10:43 into the second period: The first such game was series 1361 Game 5, in which the Lightning in Tampa Bay (again) tallied its first goal 10:43 into the second period and defeated the visiting Boston Bruins 3-goals-1 in their 2018 NHL Quarterfinals Game 5. With the series 1497 loss, the New York Rangers leave the 2022 NHL playoffs with 2022 NHL Bronze, having been the last team to exit the playoffs before the league Finals.

After Game 5: The Tampa Bay Lightning visited and defeated the New York Rangers 3-goals-1 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1497 lead of 3-games-2. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a series record of 8-2 (with an active four-series winning streak) and a Game 6 record of 5-5. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the New York Rangers have a series record of 7-19 and a Game 6 record of 11-15. Series 1497 Game 5 becomes the second best-of-7 NHL playoff game in which the first goal of the game was scored by the home team (Rangers) 10:29 into the 2nd period; the first such game was series 35 Game 1 of the 1940 NHL Semifinals, also by the New York Rangers (against the visiting Boston Bruins, en route to a 4-goals-nil victory and ultimately the 1940 NHL championship). The visiting Lightning tied series 1497 Game 5 at 17:34 into the 2nd period: In one previous best-of-7 NHL playoff game did the home team open the scoring 10:29 into the 2nd (plus/minus 30 seconds) and the road team tie the game 17:34 into the 2nd (plus/minus 30 seconds) - in series 539 Game 4 (in the 1989 NHL Semifinals), the host Chicago Blackhawks opened the scoring 10:25 into the 2nd period, and the visiting Calgary Flames tied the game 18:03 into the 2nd - Calgary would win the game 2-goals-1 at 15:05 into the 1st overtime en route to the 1989 NHL championship.

After Game 4: The Tampa Bay Lightning hosted and defeated the New York Rangers 4-goals-1 to knot best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1497 at 2-games-all. When tied 2-games-all in a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, the New York Rangers have a series record of 15-16 and a Game 5 record of 12-19, while the Tampa Bay Lightning have a series record of 7-6 and a Game 5 record of 6-7. The series 1497 Game 4 victory by the Tampa Bay Lightning extends the Tampa Bay best-of-7 NHL Game 4 winning streak to six straight in the wake of a 2-games-1 deficit in a best-of-7 NHL playoff series.

After Game 3: The Tampa Bay Lightning hosted and bested the New York Rangers 3-goals-2 to reduce the New York Rangers best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL series 1497 lead to 2-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the New York Rangers have a series record of 18-6 and a Game 4 record of 13-11. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a series record of 5-5 and a Game 4 record of 7-3 (with an active five-Game 4 winning streak). At low ebb, the Lightning in Tampa Bay trailed the New York Rangers in series 1497 Game 3 by two goals as late as 10:49 into the second period, but won: In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff series (1939-2021, inclusive), home teams trailing by two goals at 10:49 into the second period had a game record of 46-343 (.118); so it is that the Tampa Bay Lightning achieved a Grade-B (.100 - .119) comeback in series 1497 Game 3. Trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 2-games-1 (as Tampa Bay now does against the New York Rangers), Tampa Bay has an active five-Game 4 winning streak that began in series 1134 (in the 2011 NHL Semifinals, over the Boston Bruins in Tampa Bay).

After Game 2: The New York Rangers hosted and defeated the Tampa Bay Lightning 3-goals-2 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1497 lead of 2-games-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the New York Rangers have a series record of 11-2 and a Game 3 record of 5-8. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a series record of 1-4 (with an active four-series losing streak) and a Game 3 record of 3-2. The series 1497 Game 2 loss ends the Tampa Bay Lightning best-of-7 NHL playoffs Game 2 winning streak at nine games. The sole Tampa Bay Lightning best-of-7 NHL playoff series victory in the wake of a 2-games-nil deficit occurred in the first such series in which Tampa trailed 2-games-nil (in series 875, in the 2003 NHL Preliminary round over the Washington Capitals).

After Game 1: The New York Rangers hosted and defeated the Tampa Bay Lightning 6-goals-2 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1497 lead of 1-game-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the New York Rangers have a series record of 23-12 and a Game 2 record of 13-22. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a series record of 11-8 and a Game 2 record of 14-5. Irrespective of Game 1 outcome in a best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Tampa Bay Lightning have an active nine-Game 2 winning streak. Trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 1-game-nil (as they now do against the New York Rangers in series 1497), the Tampa Bay Lightning have seen their Game 2 outcome presage their series outcome in their last eight such series (six wins, two losses). The 14 total goals by 2022 NHL Semifinals Game 1 winners Colorado Avalanche and New York Rangers tie the 14 total goals by 1968 NHL Semifinals Game 1 winners Montreal Canadiens and St. Louis Blues for most total goals by the two Game 1 winners in best-of-7 NHL Semifinals-round series. The New York Rangers in series 1497 Game 1 become the fifth team to open the scoring in a best-of-7 NHL playoff game at 1:11 of the first period on home ice.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2021-22 NHL regular season, the New York Rangers finished zero points ahead of the Tampa Bay Lightning. From 1939 through the 2022 NHL Quarterfinals round, when NHL teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by zero regular-season points, they have posted a best-of-7 playoff series record of 12-9 (.571, for the team with Game 1 at home) in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1497 is the 77th best-of-7 NHL playoff series for the New York Rangers, and the 35th for the Tampa Bay Lightning. In best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the New York Rangers have an all-rounds series record of 35-41, a Semifinals-round series record of 6-16, and a Game 1 record of 35-41, while the Tampa Bay Lightning have an all-rounds series record of 24-10 (with an active ten-series winning streak befitting a two-time defending NHL champion), a Semifinals-round series record of 4-3, and a Game 1 record of 15-19. Series 1497 is the second best-of-7 NHL playoff series meeting between the New York Rangers and the Tampa Bay Lightning. In their only previous best-of-7 NHL playoff series meeting, the Tampa Bay Lightning defeated the New York Rangers in series 1266 (in the 2015 NHL Preliminary round).