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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 GREATEST COMEBACK EVER
Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2022 MLB Finals round - Series 1517.
Philadelphia Phillies vs Houston Astros

Schedule and 2022 Results
Regular Season Records: Houston 106-56, Philadelphia 87-75
Game 1 on Friday, 28 October: Philadelphia wins at Houston, 6-runs-5 (10 innings)
Game 2 on Saturday, 29 October: Philadelphia loses at Houston, 5-runs-2
Game 3 on Tuesday, 01 November: Houston loses at Philadelphia, 7-runs-nil
Game 4 on Wednesday, 02 November: Houston wins at Philadelphia, 5-runs-nil
Game 5 on Thursday, 03 November: Houston wins at Philadelphia, 3-runs-2
Game 6 on Saturday, 05 November: Philadelphia loses at Houston, 4-runs-1

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 6: The Houston Astros hosted and defeated the Philadelphia Phillies 4-runs-1 to complete a 4-games-2 best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1517 victory. With the series 1517 win, the Houston Astros improve their best-of-7 MLB playoff series record to 7-7 overall and 2-3 in the Finals round. With the series 1517 loss, the Philadelphia Phillies see their best-of-7 MLB playoff series record fall to 6-7 overall and 2-6 in the Finals round. The win order for the victorious Houston Astros in series 1517 was LWLWWW: Series 1517 thus becomes the fourth MLB Finals-round series, the fifth MLB series (all rounds), and the 42nd MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow that win order to completion. Series 1517 Game 6 is the sixth best-of-7 MLB Finals Game 6 to be scoreless after five full innings. Series 1517 (the 2022 MLB Finals) becomes the second best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL Finals series in 2022 to follow a LWLWWW win order to completion; in series 1514, the Golden State Warriors posted a LWLWWW win order to win the 2022 NBA Finals.

After Game 5: The Houston Astros visited and topped the Philadelphia Phillies 3-runs-2 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1517 lead of 3-games-2. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Houston Astros have a series record of 4-2 and a Game 6 record of 3-3. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Philadelphia Phillies have a series record of 0-3 and a Game 6 record of 0-3. The last best-of-7 MLB playoff series loss by the Houston Astros in the wake of a 3-games-2 series lead occurred in series 1418, lost by Houston to the Washington Nationals in seven games in the 2019 MLB Finals. In best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series history, teams posting a win/site order of LWLWW @ HHVVV (such as the Houston Astros in series 1517) have a 3-1 series record with an active three-series winning streak.

After Game 4: The Houston Astros visited and shut out the Philadelphia Phillies 5-runs-nil to tie best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1517 at 2-games-all. When tied 2-games-all in a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, the Houston Astros have a series record of 3-3 and a Game 5 record of 4-2, while the Philadelphia Phillies have a series record of 2-0 and a Game 5 record of 2-0. Series 1517 Game 4 (a no-hitter by the Houston Astros) becomes only the second best-of-7 MLB Finals game in which the all the runs of the game were tallied in the top of the fifth inning: In series 151, the visiting New York Yankees scored a run in the top of the fifth inning to defeat the Giants in San Francisco 1-run-nil in 1962 World Series Game 7. The Houston Astros scored all five of their runs in the top of the fifth inning of series 1517 Game 4: The five runs in the top of the fifth inning are the most runs in the top of the fifth inning of a best-of-7 MLB Finals game since series 956, in which the visiting Chicago White Sox tallied five top-of-fifth runs en route to a 7-runs-5 victory over the Astros in Houston in 2005 World Series Game 3. The series 1517 Game 4 loss by the Philadelphia Phillies ends their four-Game 4 winning streak upon leading a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 2-games-1. Series 1517 becomes the third MLB Finals series in four years to be knotted 2-games-all after four games. In best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, teams such as the Houston Astros who post an LWLW @ HHVV win/site order through four games have an active six-series winning streak. With their Game 3 shutout win and their Game 4 shutout loss, the Philadelphia Phillies become the first MLB team to win and lose by shutout in back-to-back MLB Finals games since the San Francisco Giants did so in Games 5-6 of series 1253, in the 2014 MLB Finals (San Francisco then won Game 7 to win that series.)

After Game 3: The Philadelphia Phillies hosted and shut out the Houston Astros 7-runs-nil to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1517 lead of 2-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Philadelphia Phillies have a series record of 5-0 and a Game 4 record of 4-1 (with an active four-Game 4 winning streak). When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Houston Astros have a series record of 1-5 and a Game 4 record of 4-2. The sole best-of-7 MLB playoff series victory by the Houston Astros in the wake of a 2-games-1 deficit occurred in best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1482, in which the Astros rallied to defeat the Boston Red Sox in the 2021 American League Championship Series. Through four complete innings, series 1517 Game 3 was a twin game to best-of-7 MLB playoff series 137 Game 7 pitting the visiting New York Yankees against the Pirates in Pittsburgh, wherein Pittsburgh also led 4-runs-nil with two runs each by the Pirates in the bottom of the first and second innings; Pittsburgh defeated New York 10-runs-9 in that game to win the 1960 World Series. The 7-runs-nil shutout by the host Phillies in series 1517 Game 3 is the most one-sided shutout in a World Series game by a home team since series 1253 Game 6, won by the Royals in Kansas City 10-runs-nil over the visiting San Francisco Giants in the 2014 World Series. The 7-runs-nil shutout by the host Phillies in series 1517 Game 3 is the most one-sided shutout in a World Series game by either the home or road team since series 1484 Game 6, won by the Atlanta Braves 7-runs-nil over the Astros in Houston in the 2021 World Series.

After Game 2: The Houston Astros hosted and bested the Philadelphia Phillies 5-runs-2 to tie best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1517 at 1-game-all. When tied 1-game-all in a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, the Houston Astros have a series record of 4-3 and a Game 3 record of 3-4, while the Philadelphia Phillies have a series record of 4-5 and a Game 3 record of 3-6. Tied LW @ HH in a best-of-7 MLB playoff series (as the Houston Astros now are in series 1517), the Houston Astros have a 1-1 series record, having won series 1416 in the 2019 MLB Semifinals but having lost series 1484 in the 2021 MLB Finals. Tied WL @ VV in a best-of-7 MLB playoff series (as the Philadelphia Phillies now are in series 1517), the Philadelphia Phillies have a 3-2 series record. Series 1517 Game 2 saw three runs tallied in the bottom of the first inning, and no other runs scored through 4.5 innings: Five other best-of-7 MLB playoff games saw three runs scored in the bottom of the first inning and no other runs scored through 4.5 innings; one of those games also involved the Astros in Houston, which led the visiting New York Mets 3-runs-nil after 4.5 innings of series 474 Game 6, but eventually lost 7-runs-6 in 16 innings in their 1986 MLB Semifinals series (in what is now the second-longest best-of-7 MLB playoff game by innings).

After Game 1: The Philadelphia Phillies visited and bested the Houston Astros 6-runs-5 (10 innings) to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1517 lead of 1-game-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Philadelphia Phillies have a series record of 6-3 and a Game 2 record of 2-7 (with an active four-Game 2 losing streak). When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Houston Astros have a series record of 3-5 and a Game 2 record of 4-4. The Philadelphia Phillies trailed the host Houston Astros by five runs as late as after 3.0 innings in series 1517 Game 1, but emerged victorious: In the history of best-of-7 MLB playoff games from 1905 through 2022, inclusive, road teams down five runs as late as after 3.0 innings had a game record of only 1-26 (.037) - the Philadelphia Phillies thus achieve a grade-A in-game comeback. Prior to series 1517 Game 1, the sole road team to trail a best-of-7 MLB playoff game by five runs after 3.0 innings but win the game was the New York Yankees in best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 722, in Game 4 of the 1996 World Series over the Braves in Atlanta (Atlanta led 5-runs-nil after 3.0 innings; New York won the game 8-runs-6).

Pre-series assessment: In the 2022 MLB regular season, the Houston Astros finished 19 games ahead of the Philadelphia Phillies. From 1905 through the 2022 MLB Semifinals round, when MLB teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by 19 regular-season games, they have posted a best-of-7 playoff series record of 0-0 (---) in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1517 is the 14th best-of-7 MLB playoff series for the Houston Astros, and the 13th for the Philadelphia Phillies. In best-of-7 MLB playoff series, the Houston Astros have an all-rounds series record of 6-7, a Finals-round series record of 1-3, and a Game 1 record of 5-8, while the Philadelphia Phillies have an all-rounds series record of 6-6, a Finals-round series record of 2-5, and a Game 1 record of 9-3. Series 1517 is the first best-of-7 MLB playoff series meeting between the Houston Astros and the Philadelphia Phillies. The 19-game regular-season differential between the Houston Astros and Philadelphia Phillies in 2022 is the fifth-largest between two best-of-7 MLB playoff series opponents.