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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 GREATEST COMEBACK EVER
Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2021 NHL Semifinals round - Series 1465.
New York Islanders vs Tampa Bay Lightning

Schedule and 2020-21 Results
Regular Season Records: Tampa Bay 36-17-3=75pts, New York Islanders 32-17-7=71pts
Game 1 on Sunday, 13 June: New York Islanders win at Tampa Bay, 2-goals-1
Game 2 on Tuesday, 15 June: New York Islanders lose at Tampa Bay, 4-goals-2
Game 3 on Thursday, 17 June: Tampa Bay wins at New York Islanders, 2-goals-1
Game 4 on Saturday, 19 June: Tampa Bay loses at New York Islanders, 3-goals-2
Game 5 on Monday, 21 June: New York Islanders lose at Tampa Bay, 8-goals-nil
Game 6 on Wednesday, 23 June: Tampa Bay loses at New York Islanders, 3-goals-2(OT)
Game 7 on Friday, 25 June: New York Islanders lose at Tampa Bay, 1-goal-nil

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 7: The Tampa Bay Lightning hosted and shut out the New York Islanders 1-goal-nil to complete a 4-games-3 best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1465 victory. With the series 1465 win, the Tampa Bay Lightning improve their best-of-7 NHL playoff series record to 21-10 (with an active seven-series winning streak befitting a defending NHL champion) overall and 4-3 in the Semifinals round. With the series 1465 loss, the New York Islanders see their best-of-7 NHL playoff series record fall to 27-22 overall and 5-7 in the Semifinals round. The win order for the victorious Tampa Bay Lightning in series 1465 was LWWLWLW: Series 1465 thus becomes the fourth NHL Semifinals-round series, the 13th NHL series (all rounds), and the 31st MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow that win order to completion. The Tampa Bay Lightning have now defeated the New York Islanders in all four best-of-7 NHL playoff series in which they've played each other. The Tampa Bay Lightning followed the LWWLWLW win order to victory in series 1465; they also followed this win order to victory in the 2015 NHL Semifinals.

After Game 6: The New York Islanders hosted and vanquished the Tampa Bay Lightning 3-goals-2(OT) to knot best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1465 at 3-games-all. When tied 3-games-all in a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a Game 7 record of 5-3, while the New York Islanders have a Game 7 record of 4-5. The Tampa Bay Lightning have a 3-1 Game 7 record at home. The New York Islanders have a 4-4 Game 7 record on the road. The New York Islanders trailed the visiting Tampa Bay Lightning by two goals as late as 14:21 into the second period of series 1465 Game 6, but emerged victorious. In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff games from 1939 through 2020, inclusive, home teams down two goals as late as 14:21 into the second period had a game record of only 41-358 (.103) - the New York Islanders thus achieve a grade-B in-game comeback in forcing series 1465 to Game 7.

After Game 5: The Tampa Bay Lightning hosted and shut out the New York Islanders 8-goals-nil to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1465 lead of 3-games-2. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a series record of 7-2 and a Game 6 record of 5-4. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the New York Islanders have a series record of 3-9 (with an active four-series losing streak) and a Game 6 record of 7-5. Series 1465 Game 5 ties for the fourth-most lopsided shutout achieved by a home team in best-of-7 format NHL playoff games. Series 1465 Game 5 is the most lopsided shutout pitched by a home team in a best-of-7 NHL playoff game since the Buffalo Sabres hosted and whitewashed the Philadelphia Flyers 8-goals-nil in series 826 Game 6, in the 2001 NHL Preliminary round.

After Game 4: The New York Islanders hosted and defeated the Tampa Bay Lightning 3-goals-2 to tie best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1465 at 2-games-all. When tied 2-games-all in a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a series record of 5-6 and a Game 5 record of 5-6, while the New York Islanders have a series record of 7-6 and a Game 5 record of 7-6. The series 1465 Game 4 loss by the Tampa Bay Lightning breaks a ten-Game 4 winning streak by the Lightning in the wake of a 2-games-1 best-of-7 NHL playoff series lead.

After Game 3: The Tampa Bay Lightning visited and topped the New York Islanders 2-goals-1 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1465 lead of 2-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a series record of 13-3 (with an active ten-series winning streak) and a Game 4 record of 11-5 (with an active ten-Game 4 winning streak). When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the New York Islanders have a series record of 6-13 and a Game 4 record of 9-10.

After Game 2: The Tampa Bay Lightning hosted and topped the New York Islanders 4-goals-2 to knot best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1465 at 1-game-all. When tied 1-game-all in a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a series record of 11-6 (with an active four-series winning streak) and a Game 3 record of 11-6 (with an active four-Game 3 winning streak), while the New York Islanders have a series record of 11-10 and a Game 3 record of 8-13.

After Game 1: The New York Islanders visited and bested the Tampa Bay Lightning 2-goals-1 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1465 lead of 1-game-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the New York Islanders have a series record of 19-5 (with an active four-series winning streak) and a Game 2 record of 14-10. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a series record of 9-8 and a Game 2 record of 12-5. Upon losing Game 1 of a best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Tampa Bay Lightning have seen their Game 2 outcome presage their series outcome in their last six such series (four wins, two losses).

Pre-series assessment: In the 2020-21 NHL regular season, the Tampa Bay Lightning finished four points ahead of the New York Islanders. From 1939 through the 2021 NHL Quarterfinals round, when NHL teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by four regular-season points, they have posted a best-of-7 playoff series record of 14-22 (.389, with an active seven-series losing streak) in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1465 is the 31st best-of-7 NHL playoff series for the Tampa Bay Lightning, and the 49th for the New York Islanders. In best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Tampa Bay Lightning have an all-rounds series record of 20-10 (with an active six-series winning streak befitting a defending NHL champion), a Semifinals-round series record of 3-3, and a Game 1 record of 13-17, while the New York Islanders have an all-rounds series record of 27-21, a Semifinals-round series record of 5-6, and a Game 1 record of 24-24. Series 1465 is the fourth best-of-7 NHL playoff series meeting between the Tampa Bay Lightning and the New York Islanders. The Tampa Bay Lightning defeated the New York Islanders in all three of their previous best-of-7 NHL playoff series meetings (in the 2004 NHL Preliminary round, 2016 NHL Quarterfinals round, and 2020 NHL Semifinals round; so it is that series 1465 is a rematch of the 2020 NHL Semifinals round between these two teams).