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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
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Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
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Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
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NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2021 NHL Quarterfinals round - Series 1461.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Carolina Hurricanes

Schedule and 2020-21 Results
Regular Season Records: Carolina 36-12-8=80pts, Tampa Bay 36-17-3=75pts
Game 1 on Sunday, 30 May: Tampa Bay wins at Carolina, 2-goals-1
Game 2 on Tuesday, 1 June: Tampa Bay wins at Carolina, 2-goals-1
Game 3 on Thursday, 3 June: Carolina wins at Tampa Bay, 3-goals-2(OT)
Game 4 on Saturday, 5 June: Carolina loses at Tampa Bay, 6-goals-4
Game 5 on Tuesday, 8 June: Tampa Bay wins at Carolina, 2-goals-nil

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 5: The Tampa Bay Lightning visited and shut out the Carolina Hurricanes 2-goals-nil to complete a 4-games-1 best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1461 victory. With the series 1461 win, the Tampa Bay Lightning improve their best-of-7 NHL playoff series record to 20-10 overall and 7-1 (with an active seven-Quarterfinals series winning streak) in the Quarterfinals round. With the series 1461 loss, the Carolina Hurricanes see their best-of-7 NHL playoff series record fall to 12-7 overall and 4-1 in the Quarterfinals round. The win order for the victorious Tampa Bay Lightning in series 1461 was WWLWW: Series 1461 thus becomes the sixteenth NHL Quarterfinals-round series, the 49th NHL series (all rounds), and the 128th MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow that win order to completion.

After Game 4: The Tampa Bay Lightning hosted and bested the Carolina Hurricanes 6-goals-4 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1461 lead of 3-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a series record of 11-0 and a Game 5 record of 7-4. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Carolina Hurricanes have a series record of 0-3 and a Game 5 record of 1-2. The series 1461 Game 4 victory by the Tampa Bay Lightning extends their best-of-7 NHL playoff Game 4 winning streak to six Game 4s (irrespective of Games 1-3 outcomes). The series 1461 Game 4 loss by the Carolina Hurricanes extends their best-of-7 NHL playoff Game 4 losing streak to four Game 4s (irrespective of Games 1-3 outcomes). The Tampa Bay Lightning trailed the visiting Carolina Hurricanes by two goals as late as 14:37 into the second period but prevailed: In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff games from 1939 through 2020, inclusive, home teams down two goals as late as 14:37 into the second period had a game record of only 41-363 (.101) - the Tampa Bay Lightning thus achieve a grade-B in-game comeback.

After Game 3: The Carolina Hurricanes visited and bested the Tampa Bay Lightning 3-goals-2(OT) to reduce the Tampa Bay Lightning best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL series 1461 lead to 2-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a series record of 12-3 (with an active nine-series winning streak) and a Game 4 record of 10-5 (with an active nine-Game 4 winning streak). When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Carolina Hurricanes have a series record of 5-2 and a Game 4 record of 5-2. Trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Carolina Hurricanes have seen their Game 4 outcome presage their series outcome in all seven such series for the Hurricanes (five wins, two losses).

After Game 2: The Tampa Bay Lightning visited and defeated the Carolina Hurricanes 2-goals-1 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1461 lead of 2-games-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a series record of 7-0 and a Game 3 record of 3-4 (with an active four-Game 3 losing streak). When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Carolina Hurricanes have a series record of 2-3 and a Game 3 record of 2-3. In all five best-of-7 NHL playoff series in which they have trailed 2-games-nil, the Carolina Hurricanes have seen their Game 3 outcome presage their series outcome (two wins, three losses).

After Game 1: The Tampa Bay Lightning visited and defeated the Carolina Hurricanes 2-goals-1 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1461 lead of 1-game-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a series record of 10-2 (with an active four-series winning streak) and a Game 2 record of 7-5. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Carolina Hurricanes have a series record of 6-5 and a Game 2 record of 6-5. Irrespective of Game 1 outcome in a best-of-7 NHL Quarterfinals series, the Tampa Bay Lightning own a Quarterfinals 6-1 Game 2 record with an active six-Game 2 winning streak, and a Quarterfinals 7-0 Game 3 record. The sole previous best-of-7 NHL Quarterfinals Game 1 loss by the Carolina Hurricanes occurred in series 1064 to the Boston Bruins in the 2009 NHL Quarterfinals: Carolina won the series in seven games.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2020-21 NHL regular season, the Carolina Hurricanes finished five points ahead of the Tampa Bay Lightning. From 1939 through the 2021 NHL Preliminary round, when NHL teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by five regular-season points, they have posted a best-of-7 playoff series record of 27-16 (.628) in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1461 is the 19th best-of-7 NHL playoff series for the Carolina Hurricanes, and the 30th for the Tampa Bay Lightning. In best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Carolina Hurricanes have an all-rounds series record of 12-6, a Quarterfinals-round series record of 4-0, and a Game 1 record of 7-11, while the Tampa Bay Lightning have an all-rounds series record of 19-10 (with an active five-series winning streak befitting a defending NHL champion), a Quarterfinals-round series record of 6-1 (with an active six-Quarterfinals series winning streak), and a Game 1 record of 12-17. Series 1461 is the first best-of-7 NHL playoff series meeting between the Carolina Hurricanes and the Tampa Bay Lightning.