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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
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Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2021 MLB Finals round - Series 1484.
Atlanta Braves vs Houston Astros

Schedule and 2021 Results
Regular Season Records: Houston 95-67, Atlanta 88-73
Game 1 on Tuesday, 26 October: Atlanta wins at Houston, 6-runs-2
Game 2 on Wednesday, 27 October: Atlanta loses at Houston, 7-runs-2
Game 3 on Friday, 29 October: Houston loses at Atlanta, 2-runs-nil
Game 4 on Saturday, 30 October: Houston loses at Atlanta, 3-runs-2
Game 5 on Sunday, 31 October: Houston wins at Atlanta, 9-runs-5
Game 6 on Tuesday, 02 November: Atlanta wins at Houston, 7-runs-nil

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 6: The Atlanta Braves visited and shut out the Houston Astros 7-runs-nil to complete a 4-games-2 best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1484 victory. With the series 1484 win, the Atlanta Braves improve their best-of-7 MLB playoff series record to 8-9 overall and 2-4 in the Finals round. With the series 1484 loss, the Houston Astros see their best-of-7 MLB playoff series record fall to 5-7 overall and 1-3 in the Finals round. The win order for the victorious Atlanta Braves in series 1484 was WLWWLW: Series 1484 thus becomes the fourth MLB Finals-round series, the fifth MLB series (all rounds), and the 51st MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow that win order to completion. Series 1484 becomes the first MLB series to post a win order of WLWWLW since series 1120, when the San Francisco Giants defeated the Philadelphia Phillies in the 2010 MLB Semifinals. The series 1484 victory by the Atlanta Braves brings them the 2021 MLB championship - their first since they won the 1995 MLB championship through series 697.

After Game 5: The Houston Astros visited and defeated the Atlanta Braves 9-runs-5 to reduce the Atlanta Braves best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL series 1484 lead to 3-games-2. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Atlanta Braves have a series record of 4-2 and a Game 6 record of 3-3. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Houston Astros have a series record of 1-2 and a Game 6 record of 2-1. Upon losing series 1484 Game 5, the Atlanta Braves now have a perfect 0-6 Game 5 record upon leading a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 3-games-1. The Houston Astros trailed the host Atlanta Braves by four runs as late as after 1.0 inning of series 1484 Game 5, but prevailed. In the history of best-of-7 MLB playoff games from 1905 through 2021, inclusive, road teams down four runs as late as after 1.0 innings had a game record of only 1-11 (.083) - the Houston Astros thus achieve a grade-A in-game comeback.

After Game 4: The Atlanta Braves hosted and defeated the Houston Astros 3-runs-2 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1484 lead of 3-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Atlanta Braves have a series record of 4-1 and a Game 5 record of 0-5. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Houston Astros have a series record of 0-2 and a Game 5 record of 1-1. The sole best-of-7 MLB playoff series loss by the Atlanta Braves in the wake of a 3-games-1 lead occurred in series 1450, to the Los Angeles Dodgers in the 2020 MLB Semifinals. The last MLB team to surmount a 3-games-1 deficit for a 4-games-3 victory in a best-of-7 MLB Finals series was the Chicago Cubs, in series 1319 over the Cleveland Indians in the 2016 MLB Finals. In series 1484 Game 4, the host Atlanta Braves trailed the visiting Houston Astros by one run as late as after 6.5 innings, but prevailed: In the history of best-of-7 MLB playoff series from 1905 through 2021 MLB Finals Game 3, road teams trailing by one run after 6.5 innings had a game record of 44-97 (.312).

After Game 3: The Atlanta Braves hosted and shut out the Houston Astros 2-runs-nil to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1484 lead of 2-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Atlanta Braves have a series record of 4-3 and a Game 4 record of 4-3. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Houston Astros have a series record of 1-4 and a Game 4 record of 4-1. The sole best-of-7 MLB playoff series victory achieved by the Houston Astros in the wake of a 2-games-1 deficit occurred in the last such series for the Astros, in series 1482 over the Boston Red Sox in the just-completed 2021 MLB Semifinals.

After Game 2: The Houston Astros hosted and bested the Atlanta Braves 7-runs-2 to tie best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1484 at 1-game-all. When tied 1-game-all in a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, the Houston Astros have a series record of 4-2 and a Game 3 record of 3-3, while the Atlanta Braves have a series record of 2-4 and a Game 3 record of 2-4. The Houston Astros in series 1484 become the first team to post a LW @ HH win/site order in a best-of-7 MLB Finals series since series 1253, when the Kansas City Royals did so in the 2014 MLB Finals; the champions of the LW @ HH win/site order in best-of-7 MLB Finals are the St. Louis Cardinals, with a 5-0 series record in the wake of a LW @ HH win/site order.

After Game 1: The Atlanta Braves visited and defeated the Houston Astros 6-runs-2 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1484 lead of 1-game-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Atlanta Braves have a series record of 6-3 and a Game 2 record of 7-2 (with an active four-Game 2 winning streak). When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Houston Astros have a series record of 3-4 and a Game 2 record of 3-4. Trailing a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 1-game-nil (as they now do against the Atlanta Braves in series 1484), the Houston Astros have seen their Game 2 outcome presage their series outcome in all seven of their previous such series (three wins, four losses). The Atlanta Braves took a 1-run-nil lead in series 1484 Game 1 with a home run in their first plate appearance of the game: Series 1484 Game 1 thus appears to be the first best-of-7 MLB playoff series (any round) in which the road team homered in its first plate appearance of the series.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2021 MLB regular season, the Houston Astros finished 6.5 games ahead of the Atlanta Braves. From 1905 through the 2021 MLB Semifinals round, when MLB teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by 6.5 regular-season games, they have posted a best-of-7 playoff series record of 2-2 (.500) in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1484 is the 12th best-of-7 MLB playoff series for the Houston Astros, and the 17th for the Atlanta Braves. In best-of-7 MLB playoff series, the Houston Astros have an all-rounds series record of 5-6, a Finals-round series record of 1-2, and a Game 1 record of 4-7, while the Atlanta Braves have an all-rounds series record of 7-9, a Finals-round series record of 1-4, and a Game 1 record of 9-7. Series 1484 is the first best-of-7 MLB playoff series meeting between the Houston Astros and the Atlanta Braves.