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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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2021 MLB Semifinals round - Series 1483.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Atlanta Braves

Schedule and 2021 Results
Regular Season Records: Atlanta 88-73, Los Angeles Dodgers 106-56
Game 1 on Saturday, 16 October: Los Angeles Dodgers lose at Atlanta, 3-runs-2
Game 2 on Sunday, 17 October: Los Angeles Dodgers lose at Atlanta, 5-runs-4
Game 3 on Tuesday, 19 October: Atlanta loses at Los Angeles Dodgers, 6-runs-5
Game 4 on Wednesday, 20 October: Atlanta wins at Los Angeles Dodgers, 9-runs-2
Game 5 on Thursday, 21 October: Atlanta loses at Los Angeles Dodgers, 11-runs-2
Game 6 on Saturday, 23 October: Los Angeles Dodgers lose at Atlanta, 4-runs-2

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 6: The Atlanta Braves hosted and bested the Los Angeles Dodgers 4-runs-2 to complete a 4-games-2 best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1483 victory. With the series 1483 win, the Atlanta Braves improve their best-of-7 MLB playoff series record to 7-9 overall and 6-5 in the Semifinals round. With the series 1483 loss, the Los Angeles Dodgers see their best-of-7 MLB playoff series record fall to 10-12 overall and 4-6 in the Semifinals round. The win order for the victorious Atlanta Braves in series 1483 was WWLWLW: Series 1483 thus becomes the fifth MLB Semifinals-round series, the sixth MLB series (all rounds), and the 51st MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow that win order to completion. The series 1483 victory by the Atlanta Braves is their first best-of-7 MLB playoff series victory in the third millennium; their previous best-of-7 MLB playoff series victory occurred in series 796, in which they defeated the New York Mets in the 1999 MLB Semifinals. The win order for the Atlanta Braves in series 1483 was WWLWLW: The Atlanta Braves were also the first-ever MLB team to win a best-of-7 MLB playoff series WWLWLW (in series 697, over the old Cleveland Indians in the 1995 MLB Finals).

After Game 5: The Los Angeles Dodgers hosted and topped the Atlanta Braves 11-runs-2 to drop the Atlanta Braves best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL series 1483 lead to 3-games-2. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Atlanta Braves have a series record of 3-2 and a Game 6 record of 2-3. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Los Angeles Dodgers have a series record of 1-6 and a Game 6 record of 2-5. With their series 1483 Game 5 loss, the Atlanta Braves now have a 0-5 best-of-7 MLB playoff Game 5 record when leading a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 3-games-1. In the wake of a 3-games-2 best-of-7 MLB playoff series deficit, the Los Angeles Dodgers still have as their sole favorable series precedent series 1450 - the 2020 MLB Semifinals vs the Atlanta Braves (although the Dodgers played Games 6-7 at home [actually at a neutral site] in series 1450 and will play Games 6 and a Game 7 on the road in series 1483). The nine-run series 1483 Game 5 victory margin by the Dodgers in Los Angeles is the largest best-of-7 MLB playoff Game 5 victory margin by a home team since series 872 Game 5, in which the Giants in San Francisco hosted and trounced the visiting Anaheim Angels 16-runs-4 in the 2002 MLB Finals. In the history of best-of-7 MLB Semifinals series, the sole previous series winner after a LLWLW @ VVHHH win/site order was the Kansas City Royals, in series 456 (in the 1985 MLB Semifinals against the Toronto Blue Jays); so it is that the 1985 Royals offer the 2021 Los Angeles Dodgers their sole favorable precedent in terms of win/site order.

After Game 4: The Atlanta Braves visited and bested the Los Angeles Dodgers 9-runs-2 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1483 lead of 3-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Atlanta Braves have a series record of 3-1 and a Game 5 record of 0-4. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Los Angeles Dodgers have a series record of 1-6 and a Game 5 record of 3-4. The sole Los Angeles victory in the wake of a 3-games-1 deficit in a best-of-7 MLB playoff series occurred in series 1450, against the Atlanta Braves in the 2020 MLB Semifinals (the series for which series 1483 is the soonest possible rematch).

After Game 3: The Los Angeles Dodgers hosted and defeated the Atlanta Braves 6-runs-5 to reduce the Atlanta Braves best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL series 1483 lead to 2-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Atlanta Braves have a series record of 3-3 and a Game 4 record of 2-4. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Los Angeles Dodgers have a series record of 5-7 and a Game 4 record of 5-7. The Los Angeles Dodgers trailed the visiting Atlanta Braves by three runs as late as after 7.5 innings but won series 1483 Game 3. In the history of best-of-7 MLB playoff games from 1905 through 2020, inclusive, home teams down three runs as late as after 7.5 innings had a game record of only 6-59 (.092) - the Los Angeles Dodgers thus achieve a grade-A in-game comeback, and (as of 19 October 2021) the greatest in-game comeback thus far in the Fall 2021 best-of-7 MLB playoff season. The last MLB home team (any round) to surmount a three-run deficit after 7.5 innings for a best-of-7 MLB playoff game victory was the St. Louis Cardinals in series 1154 (over the visiting Texas Rangers in 2011 MLB Finals Game 6). The last MLB home team (in the MLB Semifinals) to surmount a three-run deficit after 7.5 innings for a best-of-7 MLB playoff game victory was the Boston Red Sox in series 1053 (over the visiting Tampa Bay Rays in 2008 MLB Semifinals Game 5).

After Game 2: The Atlanta Braves hosted and defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers 5-runs-4 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1483 lead of 2-games-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Atlanta Braves have a series record of 4-2 and a Game 3 record of 2-4. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Los Angeles Dodgers have a series record of 3-4 and a Game 3 record of 6-1 (with an active five-Game 3 winning streak). Series 1483 Game 2 is a win for the Atlanta Braves of a game the Braves never led. Series 1483 becomes the first best-of-7 MLB playoff series to feature two consecutive games in which the home team won in the bottom of the ninth. The Los Angeles Dodgers have become the road team in the last three best-of-7 MLB playoff games in which the road team won the game in the bottom of the ninth inning. The Atlanta Braves trailed the visiting Los Angeles Dodgers by two runs as late as after 7.5 innings but prevailed: In the history of best-of-7 MLB playoff games from 1905 through 2021, inclusive, home teams down two runs as late as after 7.5 innings had a game record of only 12-86 (.122) - the Atlanta Braves thus achieve a grade-B in-game comeback.

After Game 1: The Atlanta Braves hosted and defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers 3-runs-2 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1483 lead of 1-game-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Atlanta Braves have a series record of 5-3 and a Game 2 record of 6-2. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Los Angeles Dodgers have a series record of 6-8 and a Game 2 record of 7-7. Series 1483 Game 1 becomes the 45th best-of-7 MLB playoff game won by the home team in the bottom of the ninth inning, and the first since the Rays in Tampa Bay defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers in series 1451 Game 4, in the 2020 MLB Finals.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2021 MLB regular season, the Atlanta Braves finished 17.5 games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1483 is the 16th best-of-7 MLB playoff series for the Atlanta Braves, and the 22nd for the Los Angeles Dodgers. In best-of-7 MLB playoff series, the Atlanta Braves have an all-rounds series record of 6-9, a Semifinals-round series record of 5-5, and a Game 1 record of 8-7, while the Los Angeles Dodgers have an all-rounds series record of 10-11, a Semifinals-round series record of 4-5, and a Game 1 record of 7-14. Series 1483 is the second best-of-7 MLB playoff series meeting between the Atlanta Braves and the Los Angeles Dodgers. In their only previous best-of-7 MLB playoff series meeting, the Los Angeles Dodgers rallied from a 3-games-1 deficit to defeat the Atlanta Braves in series 1450, in the 2020 MLB Semifinals.