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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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2021 MLB Semifinals round - Series 1482.
Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros

Schedule and 2021 Results
Regular Season Records: Houston 95-67, Boston 92-70
Game 1 on Friday, 15 October: Boston loses at Houston, 5-runs-4
Game 2 on Saturday, 16 October: Boston wins at Houston, 9-runs-5
Game 3 on Monday, 18 October: Houston loses at Boston, 12-runs-3
Game 4 on Tuesday, 19 October: Houston wins at Boston, 9-runs-2
Game 5 on Wednesday, 20 October: Houston wins at Boston, 9-runs-1
Game 6 on Friday, 22 October: Boston loses at Houston, 5-runs-nil

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 6: The Houston Astros hosted and shut out the Boston Red Sox 5-runs-nil to complete a 4-games-2 best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1482 victory. With the series 1482 win, the Houston Astros improve their best-of-7 MLB playoff series record to 5-6 overall and 4-4 in the Semifinals round. With the series 1482 loss, the Boston Red Sox see their best-of-7 MLB playoff series record fall to 13-10 overall and 5-6 in the Semifinals round. The win order for the victorious Houston Astros in series 1482 was WLLWWW: Series 1482 thus becomes the fourth MLB Semifinals-round series, the sixth MLB series (all rounds), and the 42nd MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow that win order to completion. The Boston Red Sox had had a 7-0 Game 6 record in best-of-7 MLB playoff series upon trailing 3-games-2, prior to their series 1482 Game 6 loss in Houston. The series 1482 loss by Boston also ends a best-of-7 MLB playoffs four-series winning streak by the Red Sox. The 34-run sum of victory margins by the Houston Astros and Boston Red Sox in series 1482 breaks a best-of-7 MLB playoff series record for largest sum of victory margins in a best-of-7 MLB playoff series (any round) lasting six games, breaking the previous record of 32 runs set in series 29 by the 1936 New York Yankees and New York Giants in the 1936 MLB Finals.

After Game 5: The Houston Astros visited and topped the Boston Red Sox 9-runs-1 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1482 lead of 3-games-2. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Houston Astros have a series record of 3-2 and a Game 6 record of 2-3. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Boston Red Sox have a series record of 3-4 and a Game 6 record of 7-0. The series 1482 Game 5 loss by the Red Sox ends Boston's seven-Game 5 winning streak in best-of-7 MLB playoff series. Through the first five games of series 1482, the sum of victory margins of the five games is 29 runs, and that 29-run total ties three other best-of-7 MLB playoff series for the largest such sum through the first five games (set in series 137 by the Pittsburgh Pirates and New York Yankees in the 1960 MLB Finals; tied in series 1284 by the Kansas City Royals and Toronto Blue Jays in the 2015 MLB Semifinals; tied again in series 1450 by the Los Angeles Dodgers and Atlanta Braves in the 2020 MLB Semifinals).

After Game 4: The Houston Astros visited and defeated the Boston Red Sox 9-runs-2 to tie best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1482 at 2-games-all. When tied 2-games-all in a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, the Houston Astros have a series record of 2-3 and a Game 5 record of 3-2, while the Boston Red Sox have a series record of 2-4 and a Game 5 record of 4-2. The Boston Red Sox bring a seven-Game 5 winning streak in best-of-7 MLB playoff series (irrespective of Games 1-4 outcomes) into series 1482 Game 5. The Houston Astros plated seven runs in the top of the ninth inning of series 1482 Game 4 en route to their 9-runs-2 defeat of the Red Sox in Boston: Those seven runs tie a best-of-7 MLB playoff game record for most runs scored in the top of the ninth (set in series 29 by the New York Yankees in 1936 MLB Finals Game 6 at the New York Giants, and previously tied in series 573 by the Oakland Athletics in 1990 MLB Semifinals Game 1 vs the Red Sox in Boston, and in series 747 by the old Florida Marlins in 1997 MLB Finals Game 3 vs the Indians in Cleveland).

After Game 3: The Boston Red Sox hosted and defeated the Houston Astros 12-runs-3 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1482 lead of 2-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Boston Red Sox have a series record of 7-2 and a Game 4 record of 6-3. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Houston Astros have a series record of 0-4 and a Game 4 record of 3-1. The 25 total runs plated by the Boston Red Sox in series 1482 Games 1-3 are the most by one team in the first three games of a best-of-7 MLB playoff series (any round) since series 1022, in which the Boston Red Sox also scored 25 runs in the first three games against the Colorado Rockies in the 2007 MLB Finals en route to a Red Sox sweep. The 25 total runs plated by the Boston Red Sox in series 1482 Games 1-3 are the most by one team in the first three games of a best-of-7 MLB Semifinals series since series 936, in which the New York Yankees scored an MLB-most 32 runs in the first three games against the Boston Red Sox in the 2004 MLB Semifinals before the Red Sox would rally to win Games 4-7 and the series. Both Boston and Houston bring active three-Game 4 winning streaks in best-of-7 MLB playoff series action (irrespective of Games 1-3) into series 1482 Game 4; one of those winning streaks will end in series 1482 Game 4.

After Game 2: The Boston Red Sox visited and bested the Houston Astros 9-runs-5 to knot best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1482 at 1-game-all. When tied 1-game-all in a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, the Houston Astros have a series record of 3-2 and a Game 3 record of 3-2, while the Boston Red Sox have a series record of 8-5 and a Game 3 record of 6-7. In each of the previous best-of-7 MLB playoff series in which the Houston Astros were tied 1-game-all, their Game 3 outcome presaged their series outcome (three wins, two losses).

After Game 1: The Houston Astros hosted and defeated the Boston Red Sox 5-runs-4 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1482 lead of 1-game-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Houston Astros have a series record of 1-2 and a Game 2 record of 1-2. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Boston Red Sox have a series record of 5-4 and a Game 2 record of 5-4. In each of the previous best-of-7 MLB playoff series in which the Houston Astros led 1-game-nil, their Game 2 outcome presaged their series outcome (one win, two losses). Houston trailed visiting Boston by two runs as late as after 5.5 innings of series 1482 Game 1, but prevailed: In the history of best-of-7 format MLB playoff games, home teams trailing by two runs after 5.5 innings had a game record of only 28-87 (.244).

Pre-series assessment: In the 2021 MLB regular season, the Houston Astros finished three games ahead of the Boston Red Sox. From 1905 through the 2020 MLB Finals round, when MLB teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by three regular-season games, they have posted a best-of-7 playoff series record of 6-5 (.545) in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1482 is the 11th best-of-7 MLB playoff series for the Houston Astros, and the 23rd for the Boston Red Sox. In best-of-7 MLB playoff series, the Houston Astros have an all-rounds series record of 4-6, a Semifinals-round series record of 3-4, and a Game 1 record of 3-7, while the Boston Red Sox have an all-rounds series record of 13-9 (with an active four-series winning streak), a Semifinals-round series record of 5-5, and a Game 1 record of 13-9. Series 1482 is the second best-of-7 MLB playoff series meeting between the Houston Astros and the Boston Red Sox. In their only previous best-of-7 MLB playoff series meeting, the Boston Red Sox defeated the Houston Astros in five games (with wins in Games 2-5) in series 1383, in the 2018 MLB Semifinals. The Boston Red Sox bring a best-of-7 active four-series winning streak into series 1482, and an 8-1 best-of-7 series record in their last nine such series into series 1482.