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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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2020 NHL Finals round - Series 1433.
Dallas Stars vs Tampa Bay Lightning

Schedule and 2019-20 Results
Regular Season Records: Tampa Bay 43-21-6=92pts, Dallas 37-24-8=82pts
Game 1 on Saturday, 19 September: Dallas wins at Tampa Bay, 4-goals-1
Game 2 on Monday, 21 September: Dallas loses at Tampa Bay, 3-goals-2
Game 3 on Wednesday, 23 September: Tampa Bay wins at Dallas, 5-goals-2
Game 4 on Friday, 25 September: Tampa Bay wins at Dallas, 5-goals-4 (OT)
Game 5 on Saturday, 26 September: Dallas wins at Tampa Bay, 3-goals-2 (2OT)
Game 6 on Monday, 28 September: Tampa Bay wins at Dallas, 2-goals-nil

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 6: The Tampa Bay Lightning visited and shut out the Dallas Stars 2-goals-nil to complete a 4-games-2 best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1433 victory. With the series 1433 win, the Tampa Bay Lightning improve their best-of-7 NHL playoff series record to 18-10 (with a four-series winning streak befitting a new NHL champion) overall and 2-1 in the Finals round. With the series 1433 loss, the Dallas Stars see their best-of-7 NHL playoff series record fall to 19-15 overall and 1-2 in the Finals round. The win order for the victorious Tampa Bay Lightning in series 1433 was LWWWLW: Series 1433 thus becomes the third NHL Finals-round series, the 23rd NHL series (all rounds), and the 53rd MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow that win order to completion. Series 1433 becomes the first best-of-7 NHL Finals to end with a shutout since series 1334, in which the Pittsburgh Penguins whitewashed the Nashville Predators in their Game 6 to win the 2017 NHL championship.

After Game 5: The Dallas Stars visited and defeated the Tampa Bay Lightning 3-goals-2 (2OT) to reduce the Tampa Bay Lightning best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL series 1433 lead to 3-games-2. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a series record of 5-2 and a Game 6 record of 3-4. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Dallas Stars have a series record of 1-8 (with an active six-series losing streak) and a Game 6 record of 4-5. The sole Dallas Stars series victory in the wake of a 3-games-2 best-of-7 NHL playoff series deficit occurred in series 786, in which the Stars defeated the Colorado Avalanche 4-games-3 in the 1999 NHL Semifinals en route to the 1999 NHL championship. In series 1433 Game 5, the Dallas Stars trailed their pseudo-host Tampa Bay Lightning by a goal as late as 13:14 into the third period but won Game 5: In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff games from 1939 through 2019, inclusive, road teams down a goal as late as 13:14 into the third period had a game record of only 78-641 (.108) - the Dallas Stars thus achieve a grade-B in-game comeback.

After Game 4: The Tampa Bay Lightning visited and defeated the Dallas Stars 5-goals-4 (OT) to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1433 lead of 3-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a series record of 9-0 and a Game 5 record of 7-2. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Dallas Stars have a series record of 0-9 and a Game 5 record of 5-4. The Game 4 loss by the Dallas Stars in series 1433 breaks a nine-Game 4 winning streak by the Stars (irrespective of Games 1-3 outcome). The Tampa Bay Lightning trailed the pseudo-host Dallas Stars by two goals as late as 19:26 into the first period but prevailed: In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff games from 1939 through 2019, inclusive, road teams down two goals as late as 19:26 into the first period had a game record of only 51-331 (.134) - the Tampa Bay Lightning thus achieve a grade-B in-game comeback.

After Game 3: The Tampa Bay Lightning visited and defeated the Dallas Stars 5-goals-2 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1433 lead of 2-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a series record of 10-3 (with an active seven-series winning streak) and a Game 4 record of 8-5 (with an active seven-Game 4 winning streak). When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Dallas Stars have a series record of 4-10 and a Game 4 record of 8-6 (with an active five-Game 4 winning streak). In the last eight best-of-7 NHL series in which the Tampa Bay Lightning have led 2-games-1 after three games, Tampa's Game 4 outcome presaged their series outcome (one loss, seven wins).

After Game 2: The Tampa Bay Lightning hosted and defeated the Dallas Stars 3-goals-2 to tie best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1433 at 1-game-all. When tied 1-game-all in a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a series record of 10-6 and a Game 3 record of 10-6, while the Dallas Stars have a series record of 9-6 and a Game 3 record of 5-10. In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff series in which the home team lost Game 1 by three goals and then won Game 2 by a goal (as Tampa Bay has against Dallas in the 2020 NHL Finals, in series 1433), the series record of said team is 6-6. In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff series in which a team irrespective of site lost Game 1 by three goals and then won Game 2 by a goal (as Tampa Bay has against Dallas in the 2020 NHL Finals, in series 1433), the series record of said team is 13-13. In best-of-7 NHL Finals, the most favorable prototype for the Tampa Bay Lightning was set by the Montreal Canadiens: In both the 1986 and the 1993 NHL Finals, Montreal lost Game 1 by three goals, won Game 2 by a goal (with both games on the road in 1986 and both games at home in 1993), and then won Games 3-5 to win the NHL championship.

After Game 1: The Dallas Stars visited and topped the Tampa Bay Lightning 4-goals-1 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1433 lead of 1-game-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Dallas Stars have a series record of 14-2 and a Game 2 record of 10-6. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a series record of 8-8 and a Game 2 record of 11-5. In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff series in which the road team prevailed 4-goals-1 in Game 1 (as Dallas has in series 1433), said road teams have a five-Game 2 losing streak (all rounds) and a 0-3 series record and a 0-3 Game 2 record (both in the NHL Finals).

Pre-series assessment: In the 2019-20 NHL regular season, the Tampa Bay Lightning finished ten points ahead of the Dallas Stars. From 1939 through the 2020 NHL Semifinals round, when NHL teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by ten regular-season points, they have posted a best-of-7 playoff series record of 11-12 (.478) in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1433 is the 28th best-of-7 NHL playoff series for the Tampa Bay Lightning, and the 34th for the Dallas Stars. In best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Tampa Bay Lightning have an all-rounds series record of 17-10, a Finals-round series record of 1-1, and a Game 1 record of 11-16, while the Dallas Stars have an all-rounds series record of 19-14, a Finals-round series record of 1-1, and a Game 1 record of 16-17. Series 1433 is the first best-of-7 NHL playoff series meeting between the Tampa Bay Lightning and the Dallas Stars.