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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 GREATEST COMEBACK EVER
Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

RESOURCES
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BEST-OF-7 FEATURES
Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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SEARCH RESULTS
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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2020 MLB Finals round - Series 1451.
Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Dodgers

Schedule and 2020 Results
Regular Season Records: Los Angeles Dodgers 43-17, Tampa Bay 40-20
Game 1 on Tuesday, 20 October: Tampa Bay loses at Los Angeles Dodgers, 8-runs-3
Game 2 on Wednesday, 21 October: Tampa Bay wins at Los Angeles Dodgers, 6-runs-4
Game 3 on Friday, 23 October: Los Angeles Dodgers win at Tampa Bay, 6-runs-2
Game 4 on Saturday, 24 October: Los Angeles Dodgers lose at Tampa Bay, 8-runs-7
Game 5 on Sunday, 25 October: Los Angeles Dodgers win at Tampa Bay, 4-runs-2
Game 6 on Tuesday, 27 October: Tampa Bay loses at Los Angeles Dodgers, 3-runs-1

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 6: The Los Angeles Dodgers hosted and bested the Tampa Bay Rays 3-runs-1 to complete a 4-games-2 best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1451 victory. With the series 1451 win, the Los Angeles Dodgers improve their best-of-7 MLB playoff series record to 10-11 overall and 6-6 in the Finals round. With the series 1451 loss, the Tampa Bay Rays see their best-of-7 MLB playoff series record fall to 2-2 overall and 0-2 in the Finals round. The win order for the victorious Los Angeles Dodgers in series 1451 was WLWLWW: Series 1451 thus becomes the second MLB Finals-round series, the third MLB series (all rounds), and the 47th MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow that win order to completion. The Los Angeles Dodgers trailed the Tampa Bay Rays by a run as late as after five full innings. In the history of best-of-7 MLB playoff series, home teams down a run after five full innings had a game record of 52-99 (.344). The best-of-7 MLB Finals victory by the Los Angeles Dodgers is their first since 1988.

After Game 5: The Los Angeles Dodgers visited and bested the Tampa Bay Rays 4-runs-2 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1451 lead of 3-games-2. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Los Angeles Dodgers have a series record of 5-0 and a Game 6 record of 2-3. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Tampa Bay Rays have a series record of 0-0 and a Game 6 record of 0-0. Leading a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 3-games-2, the Los Angeles Dodgers notched their five series victories (with no series losses) in the MLB Finals of 1959, 1965, and 1981, and in the MLB Semifinals of 1988 and 2018. The Tampa Bay Rays trail a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 3-games-2 for the first time in franchise history. Only two previous best-of-7 MLB playoff series featured a punch-counterpunch WLWLW win order with a site order of HHVVV: Series 91 (led in the 1952 MLB Finals by the old Brooklyn Dodgers, which then lost Games 6-7 and thus the series at home to the New York Yankees); series 747 (led in the 1997 MLB Finals by the old Florida Marlins, which then lost Game 6 but won Game 7 at home to win the series against the Cleveland Indians). So it is that the 1997 Florida Marlins offer a favorable precedent to the 2020 Los Angeles Dodgers, while the 1952 New York Yankees offer a favorable precedent to the 2020 Tampa Bay Rays.

After Game 4: The Tampa Bay Rays hosted and bested the Los Angeles Dodgers 8-runs-7 to tie best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1451 at 2-games-all. When tied 2-games-all in a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, the Los Angeles Dodgers have a series record of 4-4 and a Game 5 record of 4-4, while the Tampa Bay Rays have a series record of 0-0 and a Game 5 record of 0-0. Tampa Bay trailed series 1451 Game 4 by a run in the bottom of the ninth inning, but prevailed: In the history of best-of-7 MLB playoff games (all rounds) prior to series 1451 Game 4, home teams down a run after 8.5 innings had a game record of only 14-96 (.127) - so it is in series 1451 Game 4 that the Tampa Bay Rays achieve a Grade-B in-game comeback. Tied 2-games-all after four games of a best-of-7 MLB playoff series, the Los Angeles Dodgers have seen their Game 5 outcome match their series outcome in all eight such series (four wins, four losses). The Tampa Bay Rays are tied 2-games-all in a best-of-7 MLB playoff series for the first time in franchise history.

After Game 3: The Los Angeles Dodgers visited and defeated the Tampa Bay Rays 6-runs-2 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1451 lead of 2-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Los Angeles Dodgers have a series record of 2-3 and a Game 4 record of 2-3. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Tampa Bay Rays have a series record of 0-1 and a Game 4 record of 0-1. Five times previous to series 1451 had the Los Angeles Dodgers led a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 2-games-1: In each case, the Game 4 outcome for Los Angeles presaged the series outcome (two wins, three losses). The only previous best-of-7 MLB playoff series which the Tampa Bay Rays trailed 2-games-1 was series 1055 (the 2008 MLB Finals), in which the Rays lost Game 4 and eventually the series.

After Game 2: The Tampa Bay Rays visited and topped the Los Angeles Dodgers 6-runs-4 to tie best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1451 at 1-game-all. When tied 1-game-all in a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, the Los Angeles Dodgers have a series record of 3-5 and a Game 3 record of 2-6, while the Tampa Bay Rays have a series record of 1-1 and a Game 3 record of 1-1. In the history of best-of-7 MLB Finals, teams such as the Los Angeles Dodgers which win Game 1 by five runs and lose Game 2 by two runs have a 1-2 series record.

After Game 1: The Los Angeles Dodgers hosted and defeated the Tampa Bay Rays 8-runs-3 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1451 lead of 1-game-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Los Angeles Dodgers have a series record of 3-3 and a Game 2 record of 5-1. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Tampa Bay Rays have a series record of 1-1 and a Game 2 record of 2-0. Leading a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 1-game-nil, the Los Angeles Dodgers have won five of their six Game 2s in that situation; the sole loss occurred in series 1352, in the 2017 MLB Finals to the Houston Astros in the latest such series for Los Angeles.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2020 MLB regular season, the Los Angeles Dodgers finished three games ahead of the Tampa Bay Rays. From 1905 through the 2020 MLB Semifinals round, when MLB teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by three regular-season games, they have posted a best-of-7 playoff series record of 5-5 (.500) in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1451 is the 21st best-of-7 MLB playoff series for the Los Angeles Dodgers, and the fourth for the Tampa Bay Rays. In best-of-7 MLB playoff series, the Los Angeles Dodgers have an all-rounds series record of 9-11, a Finals-round series record of 5-6, and a Game 1 record of 6-14, while the Tampa Bay Rays have an all-rounds series record of 2-1, a Finals-round series record of 0-1, and a Game 1 record of 1-2. Series 1451 is the first best-of-7 MLB playoff series meeting between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Tampa Bay Rays. The last best-of-7 MLB playoff series between two teams separated by three regular-season games was best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1352, in which the Los Angeles Dodgers led the Houston Astros by three regular-season games but lost the 2017 MLB Finals in seven games.