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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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2019 NHL Semifinals round - Series 1399.
St. Louis Blues vs San Jose Sharks

Schedule and 2018-19 Results:
Regular Season Records: San Jose 46-27-9=101pts, St. Louis 45-28-9=99pts
Game 1 on Saturday, 11 May: St. Louis loses at San Jose, 6-goals-3
Game 2 on Monday, 13 May: St. Louis wins at San Jose, 4-goals-2
Game 3 on Wednesday, 15 May: San Jose wins at St. Louis, 5-goals-4 (OT)
Game 4 on Friday, 17 May: San Jose loses at St. Louis, 2-goals-1
Game 5 on Sunday, 19 May: St. Louis at San Jose
Game 6 on Tuesday, 21 May: San Jose at St. Louis
Game 7* on Thursday, 23 May: St. Louis at San Jose
*if needed

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Tied 2-games-all @ HHVV:
Ignoring win order; considering site order: The team tied 2-games-all with site order HHVV (San Jose) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2019 NHL and NBA Quarterfinals rounds:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 337-172 (.662)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Semifinals round: 74-49 (.602)
series record, NHL only, all rounds: 156-107 (.593)
series record, NHL only, Semifinals round: 33-26 (.559)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 327-182 (.642)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, Semifinals round: 73-50 (.593)
Game 5 record, NHL only, all rounds: 163-100 (.620)
Game 5 record, NHL only, Semifinals round: 32-27 (.542)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1409 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2019 NHL and NBA Quarterfinals rounds. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Tied WLWL:
Considering win order; ignoring site order: The team tied WLWL irrespective of site order (San Jose) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2019 NHL and NBA Quarterfinals rounds:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 90-86 (.511)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Semifinals round: 22-20 (.524)
series record, NHL only, all rounds: 38-44 (.463)
series record, NHL only, Semifinals round: 8-11 (.421)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 95-81 (.540)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, Semifinals round: 22-20 (.524)
Game 5 record, NHL only, all rounds: 43-39 (.524)
Game 5 record, NHL only, Semifinals round: 9-10 (.474)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1409 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2019 NHL and NBA Quarterfinals rounds. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Tied WLWL @ HHVV:
Considering win order; considering site order: The team tied WLWL with site order HHVV (San Jose) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2019 NHL and NBA Quarterfinals rounds:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 54-28 (.659)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Semifinals round: 12-8 (.600)
series record, NHL only, all rounds: 22-17 (.564)
series record, NHL only, Semifinals round: 5-5 (.500)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 52-30 (.634)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, Semifinals round: 12-8 (.600)
Game 5 record, NHL only, all rounds: 23-16 (.590)
Game 5 record, NHL only, Semifinals round: 6-4 (.600)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1409 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2019 NHL and NBA Quarterfinals rounds. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 4: The St. Louis Blues hosted and topped the San Jose Sharks 2-goals-1 to tie best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1399 at 2-games-all. When tied 2-games-all in a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, the San Jose Sharks have a series record of 7-11 and a Game 5 record of 8-10, while the St. Louis Blues have a series record of 9-15 and a Game 5 record of 8-16. When tied 2-games-all in a best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the San Jose Sharks have seen their Game 5 outcome match their series outcome in their last eleven such series.

After Game 3: The San Jose Sharks visited and defeated the St. Louis Blues 5-goals-4 in overtime to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1399 lead of 2-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the San Jose Sharks have a series record of 11-4 (with an active five-series winning streak) and a Game 4 record of 7-8. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the St. Louis Blues have a series record of 5-18 (with an active eight-series losing streak) and a Game 4 record of 10-13. San Jose trailed the Blues in St. Louis by a goal as late as 18:58 into the third period of series 1399 Game 3, but won in overtime: In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff games from 1939 through 2018, inclusive, road teams down a goal as late as 18:58 into the third period had a game record of only 23-638 (.035).

After Game 2: The St. Louis Blues visited and bested the San Jose Sharks 4-goals-2 to tie best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1399 at 1-game-all. When tied 1-game-all in a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, the San Jose Sharks have a series record of 11-7 and a Game 3 record of 10-8, while the St. Louis Blues have a series record of 12-19 and a Game 3 record of 15-16. Tied 1-game-all in a best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the St. Louis Blues have seen their Game 3 outcome match their series outcome in their last seven such series.

After Game 1: The San Jose Sharks hosted and defeated the St. Louis Blues 6-goals-3 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1399 lead of 1-game-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the San Jose Sharks have a series record of 15-7 and a Game 2 record of 11-11. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the St. Louis Blues have a series record of 5-24 and a Game 2 record of 13-16.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2018-19 NHL regular season, the San Jose Sharks finished two points ahead of the St. Louis Blues. From 1939 through the 2019 NHL Quarterfinals and NBA Preliminary rounds, when NHL teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by two regular-season points, they have posted a best-of-7 playoff series record of 20-17 (.541) in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1399 is the 41st best-of-7 NHL playoff series for the San Jose Sharks, and the 62nd for the St. Louis Blues. In best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the San Jose Sharks have an all-rounds series record of 20-20, a Semifinals-round series record of 1-3, and a Game 1 record of 22-18, while the St. Louis Blues have an all-rounds series record of 25-36, a Semifinals-round series record of 3-4 (with an active four-series losing streak), and a Game 1 record of 32-29. Series 1399 is the sixth best-of-7 NHL playoff series meeting between the San Jose Sharks and the St. Louis Blues. San Jose won three of the previous five best-of-7 NHL playoff series against the Blues, through a Sharks/Blues/Sharks/Blues/Sharks alternating win pattern. The first four of the five previous series between these two teams were in the NHL Preliminary round; the last was the 2016 NHL Semifinals. The advance to series 1399 by the St. Louis Blues breaks a pattern of their reaching the NHL Semifinals only once every fifteen years (2016, 2001, 1986).