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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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Game 1 played at home
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Game 1 played at home
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BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
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2019 NHL Preliminary round - Series 1393.
Vegas Golden Knights vs San Jose Sharks

Schedule and 2018-19 Results
Regular Season Records: San Jose 46-27-9=101pts, Vegas 43-32-7=93pts
Game 1 on Wednesday, 10 April: Vegas loses at San Jose, 5-goals-2
Game 2 on Friday, 12 April: Vegas wins at San Jose, 5-goals-3
Game 3 on Sunday, 14 April: San Jose loses at Vegas, 6-goals-3
Game 4 on Tuesday, 16 April: San Jose loses at Vegas, 5-goals-nil
Game 5 on Thursday, 18 April: Vegas loses at San Jose, 5-goals-2
Game 6 on Sunday, 21 April: San Jose at Vegas
Game 7* on Tuesday, 23 April: Vegas at San Jose
* if needed

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading 3-games-2:
Ignoring win order; ignoring site order: The team leading 3-games-2 irrespective of site order (Vegas) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2018 MLB Finals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 637-161 (.798)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 186-44 (.809)
series record, NHL only, all rounds: 310-83 (.789)
series record, NHL only, Preliminary round: 127-35 (.784)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 438-360 (.549)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 138-92 (.600)
Game 6 record, NHL only, all rounds: 221-172 (.562)
Game 6 record, NHL only, Preliminary round: 95-67 (.586)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1385 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2018 MLB Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading 3-games-2 @ VVHHV:
Ignoring win order; considering site order: The team leading 3-games-2 with site order VVHHV (Vegas) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2018 MLB Finals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 186-59 (.759)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 70-23 (.753)
series record, NHL only, all rounds: 119-35 (.773)
series record, NHL only, Preliminary round: 48-16 (.750)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 151-94 (.616)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 57-36 (.613)
Game 6 record, NHL only, all rounds: 94-60 (.610)
Game 6 record, NHL only, Preliminary round: 39-25 (.609)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1385 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2018 MLB Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading LWWWL:
Considering win order; ignoring site order: The team leading LWWWL irrespective of site order (Vegas) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2018 MLB Finals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 68-14 (.829)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 17-6 (.739)
series record, NHL only, all rounds: 31-8 (.795)
series record, NHL only, Preliminary round: 10-5 (.667)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 51-31 (.622)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 13-10 (.565)
Game 6 record, NHL only, all rounds: 22-17 (.564)
Game 6 record, NHL only, Preliminary round: 7-8 (.467)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1385 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2018 MLB Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading LWWWL @ VVHHV:
Considering win order; considering site order: The team leading LWWWL with site order VVHHV (Vegas) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2018 MLB Finals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 35-3 (.921)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 13-1 (.929)
series record, NHL only, all rounds: 18-1 (.947)
series record, NHL only, Preliminary round: 6-0 (1.000)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 25-13 (.658)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 10-4 (.714)
Game 6 record, NHL only, all rounds: 12-7 (.632)
Game 6 record, NHL only, Preliminary round: 4-2 (.667)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1385 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2018 MLB Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 5: The San Jose Sharks hosted and bested the Vegas Golden Knights 5-goals-2 to reduce the Vegas Golden Knights best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL series 1393 lead to 3-games-2. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Vegas Golden Knights have a series record of 1-0 and a Game 6 record of 1-0. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the San Jose Sharks have a series record of 1-12 (with an active 12-series losing streak) and a Game 6 record of 2-11.

After Game 4: The Vegas Golden Knights hosted and shut out the San Jose Sharks 5-goals-nil to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1393 lead of 3-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Vegas Golden Knights have a series record of 1-0 and a Game 5 record of 1-0. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the San Jose Sharks have a series record of 0-6 and a Game 5 record of 3-3.

After Game 3: The Vegas Golden Knights hosted and defeated the San Jose Sharks 6-goals-3 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1393 lead of 2-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Vegas Golden Knights have a series record of 2-0 and a Game 4 record of 1-1. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the San Jose Sharks have a series record of 3-12 (with an active six-series losing streak) and a Game 4 record of 10-5.

After Game 2: The Vegas Golden Knights visited and defeated the San Jose Sharks 5-goals-3 to tie best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1393 at 1-game-all. When tied 1-game-all in a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, the San Jose Sharks have a series record of 9-7 and a Game 3 record of 9-7, while the Vegas Golden Knights have a series record of 2-1 and a Game 3 record of 2-1.

After Game 1: The San Jose Sharks hosted and topped the Vegas Golden Knights 5-goals-2 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1393 lead of 1-game-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the San Jose Sharks have a series record of 13-7 and a Game 2 record of 11-9. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Vegas Golden Knights have a series record of 1-0 and a Game 2 record of 1-0.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2018-19 NHL regular season, the San Jose Sharks finished eight points ahead of the Vegas Golden Knights. From 1939 through the 2018 NHL Finals round, when NHL teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by eight regular-season points, they have posted a best-of-7 playoff series record of 18-7 (.720) in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1393 is the 39th best-of-7 NHL playoff series for the San Jose Sharks, and the fifth for the Vegas Golden Knights. In best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the San Jose Sharks have an all-rounds series record of 18-20, a Preliminary-round series record of 13-7, and a Game 1 record of 20-18, while the Vegas Golden Knights have an all-rounds series record of 3-1, a Preliminary-round series record of 1-0, and a Game 1 record of 3-1. Series 1393 is the second best-of-7 NHL playoff series meeting between the San Jose Sharks and the Vegas Golden Knights. The Vegas Golden Knights defeated the San Jose Sharks in the 2018 NHL Quarterfinals, in the only previous best-of-7 NHL playoff series meeting between the two teams.