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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2019 NHL Preliminary round - Series 1392.
Colorado Avalanche vs Calgary Flames

Schedule and 2018-19 Results
Regular Season Records: Calgary 50-25-7=107pts, Colorado 38-30-14=90pts
Game 1 on Thursday, 11 April: Colorado loses at Calgary, 4-goals-nil
Game 2 on Saturday, 13 April: Colorado wins at Calgary, 3-goals-2 (OT)
Game 3 on Monday, 15 April: Calgary loses at Colorado, 6-goals-2
Game 4 on Wednesday, 17 April: Calgary loses at Colorado, 3-goals-2 (OT)
Game 5 on Friday, 19 April: Colorado at Calgary
Game 6* on Sunday, 21 April: Calgary at Colorado
Game 7* on Tuesday, 23 April: Colorado at Calgary
* if needed

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading 3-games-1:
Ignoring win order; ignoring site order: The team leading 3-games-1 irrespective of site order (Colorado) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2018 MLB Finals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 582-52 (.918)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 153-21 (.879)
series record, NHL only, all rounds: 276-28 (.908)
series record, NHL only, Preliminary round: 96-19 (.835)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 360-274 (.568)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 88-86 (.506)
Game 5 record, NHL only, all rounds: 171-133 (.563)
Game 5 record, NHL only, Preliminary round: 54-61 (.470)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1385 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2018 MLB Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading 3-games-1 @ VVHH:
Ignoring win order; considering site order: The team leading 3-games-1 with site order VVHH (Colorado) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2018 MLB Finals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 183-27 (.871)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 49-11 (.817)
series record, NHL only, all rounds: 95-13 (.880)
series record, NHL only, Preliminary round: 31-9 (.775)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 79-131 (.376)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 15-45 (.250)
Game 5 record, NHL only, all rounds: 46-62 (.426)
Game 5 record, NHL only, Preliminary round: 13-27 (.325)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1385 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2018 MLB Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading LWWW:
Considering win order; ignoring site order: The team leading LWWW irrespective of site order (Colorado) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2018 MLB Finals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 130-14 (.903)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 29-6 (.829)
series record, NHL only, all rounds: 67-8 (.893)
series record, NHL only, Preliminary round: 19-5 (.792)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 62-82 (.431)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 12-23 (.343)
Game 5 record, NHL only, all rounds: 36-39 (.480)
Game 5 record, NHL only, Preliminary round: 9-15 (.375)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1385 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2018 MLB Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading LWWW @ VVHH:
Considering win order; considering site order: The team leading LWWW with site order VVHH (Colorado) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2018 MLB Finals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 69-5 (.932)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 16-1 (.941)
series record, NHL only, all rounds: 34-1 (.971)
series record, NHL only, Preliminary round: 9-0 (1.000)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 27-47 (.365)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 3-14 (.176)
Game 5 record, NHL only, all rounds: 16-19 (.457)
Game 5 record, NHL only, Preliminary round: 3-6 (.333)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1385 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2018 MLB Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 4: The Colorado Avalanche hosted and defeated the Calgary Flames 3-goals-2 in overtime to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1392 lead of 3-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Colorado Avalanche have a series record of 9-2 and a Game 5 record of 6-5. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Calgary Flames have a series record of 0-8 and a Game 5 record of 5-3. The Colorado Avalanche trailed the visiting Calgary Flames by two goals as late as 8:09 into the third period, and by a goal as late as 17:09 into the third period of series 1392 Game 4. In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff games from 1939 through 2018, inclusive, home teams trailing by two goals as late as 8:09 into the third period had a game record of only 16-373 (.041), and home teams trailing by a goal as late as 17:09 into the third period had a game record of only 57-521 (.099).

After Game 3: The Colorado Avalanche hosted and defeated the Calgary Flames 6-goals-2 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1392 lead of 2-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Colorado Avalanche have a series record of 11-5 and a Game 4 record of 9-7. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Calgary Flames have a series record of 2-10 and a Game 4 record of 5-7.

After Game 2: The Colorado Avalanche visited and defeated the Calgary Flames 3-goals-2 in overtime to tie best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1392 at 1-game-all. When tied 1-game-all in a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, the Calgary Flames have a series record of 9-10 and a Game 3 record of 12-7 (with an active five-Game 3 winning streak), while the Colorado Avalanche have a series record of 6-7 and a Game 3 record of 7-6. The Colorado Avalanche trailed the Flames in Calgary by a goal in series 1392 Game 2 as late as 17:20 into the third period, but won the game. In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff games from 1939 through 2018, inclusive, road teams trailing by a goal as late as 17:20 into the third period had a game record of only 33-648 (.048).

After Game 1: The Calgary Flames hosted and shut out the Colorado Avalanche 4-goals-nil to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1392 lead of 1-game-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Calgary Flames have a series record of 8-4 and a Game 2 record of 3-9 (with an active four-Game 2 losing streak). When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Colorado Avalanche have a series record of 4-7 (with an active six-series losing streak) and a Game 2 record of 6-5 (with an active four-Game 2 losing streak). In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff series, home teams winning Game 1 by shutout (as Calgary did in series 1392 Game 1) have a 51-15 (.773) series record with an active eight-series winning streak.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2018-19 NHL regular season, the Calgary Flames finished 17 points ahead of the Colorado Avalanche. From 1939 through the 2018 NHL Finals round, when NHL teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by 17 regular-season points, they have posted a best-of-7 playoff series record of 15-3 (.833) in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1392 is the 32nd best-of-7 NHL playoff series for the Calgary Flames, and the 32nd for the Colorado Avalanche. In best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Calgary Flames have an all-rounds series record of 12-19, a Preliminary-round series record of 4-12, and a Game 1 record of 12-19, while the Colorado Avalanche have an all-rounds series record of 19-12 (with an active four-series losing streak), a Preliminary-round series record of 9-5, and a Game 1 record of 20-11. Series 1392 is the first best-of-7 NHL playoff series meeting between the Calgary Flames and the Colorado Avalanche.