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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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2019 NHL Preliminary round - Series 1391.
St. Louis Blues vs Winnipeg Jets (II)

Schedule and 2018-19 Results
Regular Season Records: Winnipeg(II) 47-30-5=99pts, St. Louis 45-28-9=99pts
Game 1 on Wednesday, 10 April: St. Louis wins at Winnipeg (II), 2-goals-1
Game 2 on Friday, 12 April: St. Louis wins at Winnipeg (II), 4-goals-3
Game 3 on Sunday, 14 April: Winnipeg (II) wins at St. Louis, 6-goals-3
Game 4 on Tuesday, 16 April: Winnipeg (II) wins at St. Louis, 2-goals-1(OT)
Game 5 on Thursday, 18 April: St. Louis wins at Winnipeg (II), 3-goals-2
Game 6 on Saturday, 20 April: Winnipeg (II) at St. Louis
Game 7* on Monday, 22 April: St. Louis at Winnipeg (II)
* if needed

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading 3-games-2:
Ignoring win order; ignoring site order: The team leading 3-games-2 irrespective of site order (St. Louis) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2018 MLB Finals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 637-161 (.798)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 186-44 (.809)
series record, NHL only, all rounds: 310-83 (.789)
series record, NHL only, Preliminary round: 127-35 (.784)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 438-360 (.549)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 138-92 (.600)
Game 6 record, NHL only, all rounds: 221-172 (.562)
Game 6 record, NHL only, Preliminary round: 95-67 (.586)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1385 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2018 MLB Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading 3-games-2 @ VVHHV:
Ignoring win order; considering site order: The team leading 3-games-2 with site order VVHHV (St. Louis) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2018 MLB Finals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 186-59 (.759)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 70-23 (.753)
series record, NHL only, all rounds: 119-35 (.773)
series record, NHL only, Preliminary round: 48-16 (.750)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 151-94 (.616)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 57-36 (.613)
Game 6 record, NHL only, all rounds: 94-60 (.610)
Game 6 record, NHL only, Preliminary round: 39-25 (.609)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1385 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2018 MLB Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading WWLLW:
Considering win order; ignoring site order: The team leading WWLLW irrespective of site order (St. Louis) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2018 MLB Finals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 110-15 (.880)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 29-3 (.906)
series record, NHL only, all rounds: 49-9 (.845)
series record, NHL only, Preliminary round: 16-2 (.889)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 79-46 (.632)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 24-8 (.750)
Game 6 record, NHL only, all rounds: 39-19 (.672)
Game 6 record, NHL only, Preliminary round: 14-4 (.778)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1385 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2018 MLB Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading WWLLW @ VVHHV:
Considering win order; considering site order: The team leading WWLLW with site order VVHHV (St. Louis) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2018 MLB Finals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 4-0 (1.000)
series record, NHL only, all rounds: 3-0 (1.000)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 4-0 (1.000)
Game 6 record, NHL only, all rounds: 3-0 (1.000)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1385 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2018 MLB Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 5: The St. Louis Blues visited and bested the Winnipeg Jets (II) 3-goals-2 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1391 lead of 3-games-2. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the St. Louis Blues have a series record of 9-2 and a Game 6 record of 4-7. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Winnipeg Jets (II) have a series record of 0-0 and a Game 6 record of 0-0 (i.e., the Winnipeg (II) Jets face a 3-games-2 deficit for the first time in their current incarnation). Series 1391 becomes the first best-of-7 NHL series since series 919 (Calgary vs San Jose in the 2004 NHL Semifinals) to follow a win/site order of WWLLW @ VVHHV for the leading team - road teams winning Games 1-5. The opening goal by the Winnipeg (II) Jets 12 seconds into the game was the sixth-fastest game-opening goal by a home team in best-of-7 format NHL playoff game history. The St. Louis Blues trailed the Winnipeg (II) Jets by two goals on the road as late as 1:28 into the third period, and by one goal as late as 13:51 into the third period: In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff games from 1939 through 2018, inclusive, road teams trailing by two goals as late as 1:28 into the third period had a game record of only 23-462 (.047), and road teams trailing by one goal as late as 13:51 into the third period had a game record of only 71-624 (.102).

After Game 4: The Winnipeg Jets (II) visited and defeated the St. Louis Blues 2-goals-1 in overtime to tie best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1391 at 2-games-all. When tied 2-games-all in a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, the Winnipeg Jets (II) have a series record of 1-0 and a Game 5 record of 1-0, while the St. Louis Blues have a series record of 7-15 and a Game 5 record of 7-15. Winnipeg (II) trailed series 1391 Game 4 by a goal on the road as late as 7:32 into the third period, but won the game. In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff games from 1939 through 2018, inclusive, road teams down a goal as late as 7:32 into the third period had a game record of only 120-628 (.160).

After Game 3: The Winnipeg Jets (II) visited and doubled the St. Louis Blues 6-goals-3 to reduce the St. Louis Blues best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL series 1391 lead to 2-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the St. Louis Blues have a series record of 10-9 and a Game 4 record of 7-12. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Winnipeg Jets (II) have a series record of 0-1 and a Game 4 record of 0-1.

After Game 2: The St. Louis Blues visited and topped the Winnipeg Jets (II) 4-goals-3 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1391 lead of 2-games-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the St. Louis Blues have a series record of 11-2 and a Game 3 record of 8-5. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Winnipeg Jets (II) have a series record of 0-1 and a Game 3 record of 0-1.

After Game 1: The St. Louis Blues visited and defeated the Winnipeg Jets (II) 2-goals-1 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1391 lead of 1-game-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the St. Louis Blues have a series record of 18-12 and a Game 2 record of 13-17. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Winnipeg Jets (II) have a series record of 0-1 and a Game 2 record of 0-1. The visiting St. Louis Blues trailed series 1391 Game 1 by a goal as late as 4:04 into the third period: In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff games, road teams down one goal as late as 4:04 into the third period had a game record of only 139-622 (.183).

Pre-series assessment: In the 2018-19 NHL regular season, the Winnipeg Jets (II) finished zero points ahead of the St. Louis Blues. From 1939 through the 2018 NHL Finals round, when NHL teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by zero regular-season points (but enjoyed home-ice advantage through a tiebreaker), they have posted a best-of-7 playoff series record of 12-7 (.632) in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1391 is the fifth best-of-7 NHL playoff series for the Winnipeg Jets (II), and the 60th for the St. Louis Blues. In best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Winnipeg Jets (II) have an all-rounds series record of 2-2, a Preliminary-round series record of 1-1, and a Game 1 record of 3-1, while the St. Louis Blues have an all-rounds series record of 23-36, a Preliminary-round series record of 13-12, and a Game 1 record of 30-29. Series 1391 is the first best-of-7 NHL playoff series meeting between the Winnipeg Jets (II) and the St. Louis Blues.