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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
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FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2019 NHL Preliminary round - Series 1388.
Carolina Hurricanes vs Washington Capitals

Schedule and 2018-19 Results
Regular Season Records: Washington 48-26-8=104pts, Carolina 46-29-7=99pts
Game 1 on Thursday, 11 April: Carolina loses at Washington, 4-goals-2
Game 2 on Saturday, 13 April: Carolina loses at Washington, 4-goals-3 (OT)
Game 3 on Monday, 15 April: Washington loses at Carolina, 5-goals-nil
Game 4 on Thursday, 18 April: Washington loses at Carolina, 2-goals-1
Game 5 on Saturday, 20 April: Carolina at Washington
Game 6 on Monday, 22 April: Washington at Carolina
Game 7* on Wednesday, 24 April: Carolina at Washington
* if needed

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Tied 2-games-all @ HHVV:
Ignoring win order; considering site order: The team tied 2-games-all with site order HHVV (Washington) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2018 MLB Finals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 330-168 (.663)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 95-49 (.660)
series record, NHL only, all rounds: 152-104 (.594)
series record, NHL only, Preliminary round: 60-41 (.594)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 320-178 (.643)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 94-50 (.653)
Game 5 record, NHL only, all rounds: 160-96 (.625)
Game 5 record, NHL only, Preliminary round: 62-39 (.614)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1385 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2018 MLB Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Tied WWLL:
Considering win order; ignoring site order: The team tied WWLL irrespective of site order (Washington) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2018 MLB Finals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 135-68 (.665)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 34-22 (.607)
series record, NHL only, all rounds: 59-41 (.590)
series record, NHL only, Preliminary round: 19-16 (.543)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 125-78 (.616)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 32-24 (.571)
Game 5 record, NHL only, all rounds: 58-42 (.580)
Game 5 record, NHL only, Preliminary round: 18-17 (.514)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1385 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2018 MLB Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Tied WWLL @ HHVV:
Considering win order; considering site order: The team tied WWLL with site order HHVV (Washington) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2018 MLB Finals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 121-46 (.725)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 31-12 (.721)
series record, NHL only, all rounds: 49-25 (.662)
series record, NHL only, Preliminary round: 16-8 (.667)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 116-51 (.695)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 31-12 (.721)
Game 5 record, NHL only, all rounds: 54-20 (.730)
Game 5 record, NHL only, Preliminary round: 17-7 (.708)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1385 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2018 MLB Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 4: The Carolina Hurricanes hosted and bested the Washington Capitals 2-goals-1 to knot best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1388 at 2-games-all. When tied 2-games-all in a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, the Washington Capitals have a series record of 8-9 (with an active five-series winning streak) and a Game 5 record of 8-9, while the Carolina Hurricanes have a series record of 5-1 and a Game 5 record of 4-2.

After Game 3: The Carolina Hurricanes hosted and shut out the Washington Capitals 5-goals-nil to reduce the Washington Capitals best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL series 1388 lead to 2-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Washington Capitals have a series record of 9-11 and a Game 4 record of 12-8. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Carolina Hurricanes have a series record of 4-1 and a Game 4 record of 4-1. The series 1388 Game 3 win ends the Carolina Hurricanes overall best-of-7 NHL playoff game losing streak at six games, begun in 2009 in their last best-of-7 NHL playoff series appearance.

After Game 2: The Washington Capitals hosted and bested the Carolina Hurricanes 4-goals-3 in overtime to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1388 lead of 2-games-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Washington Capitals have a series record of 4-5 and a Game 3 record of 1-8. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Carolina Hurricanes have a series record of 1-2 and a Game 3 record of 1-2. The series 1388 Game 2 loss extends the Carolina Hurricanes overall best-of-7 NHL playoff game losing streak to six games (they were swept in series 1068, in the 2009 NHL Semifinals).

After Game 1: The Washington Capitals hosted and topped the Carolina Hurricanes 4-goals-2 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1388 lead of 1-game-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Washington Capitals have a series record of 8-16 and a Game 2 record of 9-15. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Carolina Hurricanes have a series record of 5-3 and a Game 2 record of 5-3. The series 1388 Game 1 loss extends the Carolina Hurricanes best-of-7 NHL playoff Game 1 losing streak to four games, and their overall best-of-7 NHL playoff game losing streak to five games (they were swept in series 1068, in the 2009 NHL Semifinals).

Pre-series assessment: In the 2018-19 NHL regular season, the Washington Capitals finished five points ahead of the Carolina Hurricanes. From 1939 through the 2018 NHL Finals round, when NHL teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by five regular-season points, they have posted a best-of-7 playoff series record of 27-15 (.643) in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1388 is the 44th best-of-7 NHL playoff series for the Washington Capitals, and the 14th for the Carolina Hurricanes. In best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Washington Capitals have an all-rounds series record of 18-25 (with an active four-series winning streak befitting a defending NHL champion), a Preliminary-round series record of 12-12 (with an active four-series winning streak), and a Game 1 record of 24-19, while the Carolina Hurricanes have an all-rounds series record of 9-4, a Preliminary-round series record of 3-2, and a Game 1 record of 5-8. Series 1388 is the first best-of-7 NHL playoff series meeting between the Washington Capitals and the Carolina Hurricanes.