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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2019 NHL Preliminary round - Series 1387.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Boston Bruins

Schedule and 2018-19 Results
Regular Season Records: Boston 49-24-9=107pts, Toronto 46-28-8=100pts
Game 1 on Thursday, 11 April: Toronto wins at Boston, 4-goals-1
Game 2 on Saturday, 13 April: Toronto loses at Boston, 4-goals-1
Game 3 on Monday, 15 April: Boston loses at Toronto, 3-goals-2
Game 4 on Wednesday, 17 April: Boston wins at Toronto, 6-goals-4
Game 5 on Friday, 19 April: Toronto at Boston
Game 6 on Sunday, 21 April: Boston at Toronto
Game 7* on Tuesday, 23 April: Toronto at Boston
* if needed

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Tied 2-games-all @ HHVV:
Ignoring win order; considering site order: The team tied 2-games-all with site order HHVV (Boston) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2018 MLB Finals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 330-168 (.663)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 95-49 (.660)
series record, NHL only, all rounds: 152-104 (.594)
series record, NHL only, Preliminary round: 60-41 (.594)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 320-178 (.643)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 94-50 (.653)
Game 5 record, NHL only, all rounds: 160-96 (.625)
Game 5 record, NHL only, Preliminary round: 62-39 (.614)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1385 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2018 MLB Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Tied LWLW:
Considering win order; ignoring site order: The team tied LWLW irrespective of site order (Boston) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2018 MLB Finals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 84-88 (.488)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 24-18 (.571)
series record, NHL only, all rounds: 43-36 (.544)
series record, NHL only, Preliminary round: 18-15 (.545)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 79-93 (.459)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 23-19 (.548)
Game 5 record, NHL only, all rounds: 38-41 (.481)
Game 5 record, NHL only, Preliminary round: 17-16 (.515)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1385 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2018 MLB Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Tied LWLW @ HHVV:
Considering win order; considering site order: The team tied LWLW with site order HHVV (Boston) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2018 MLB Finals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 50-26 (.658)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 15-7 (.682)
series record, NHL only, all rounds: 26-14 (.650)
series record, NHL only, Preliminary round: 9-6 (.600)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 44-32 (.579)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 14-8 (.636)
Game 5 record, NHL only, all rounds: 22-18 (.550)
Game 5 record, NHL only, Preliminary round: 8-7 (.533)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1385 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2018 MLB Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 4: The Boston Bruins visited and bested the Toronto Maple Leafs 6-goals-4 to tie best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1387 at 2-games-all. When tied 2-games-all in a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, the Boston Bruins have a series record of 16-16 and a Game 5 record of 16-16, while the Toronto Maple Leafs have a series record of 20-16 and a Game 5 record of 19-17.

After Game 3: The Toronto Maple Leafs hosted and defeated the Boston Bruins 3-goals-2 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1387 lead of 2-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Toronto Maple Leafs have a series record of 18-9 and a Game 4 record of 16-11. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Boston Bruins have a series record of 8-25 and a Game 4 record of 11-22. The series 1387 Game 3 loss by the Boston Bruins is the MLB/NBA/NHL-leading 275th best-of-7 format playoff game loss by the Bruins (ahead of the NHL Montreal Canadiens and Detroit Red Wings, with 267 best-of-7 format playoff game losses each).

After Game 2: The Boston Bruins hosted and topped the Toronto Maple Leafs 4-goals-1 to tie best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1387 at 1-game-all. When tied 1-game-all in a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, the Boston Bruins have a series record of 23-17 and a Game 3 record of 20-20, while the Toronto Maple Leafs have a series record of 16-21 and a Game 3 record of 14-23.

After Game 1: The Toronto Maple Leafs visited and defeated the Boston Bruins 4-goals-1 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1387 lead of 1-game-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Toronto Maple Leafs have a series record of 19-13 and a Game 2 record of 18-14. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Boston Bruins have a series record of 14-34 and a Game 2 record of 20-28. The series 1387 Game 1 victory by the Toronto Maple Leafs ends a five-Game 1 losing streak, beginning with series 909 (in the 2004 NHL Preliminary round) and extending into series 1322 (in the 2018 NHL Preliminary round). The series 1387 Game 1 loss by the Boston Bruins is the MLB/NBA/NHL-leading 274th best-of-7 format playoff game loss by the Bruins (ahead of the NHL Montreal Canadiens and Detroit Red Wings, with 267 best-of-7 format playoff game losses each).

Pre-series assessment: In the 2018-19 NHL regular season, the Boston Bruins finished seven points ahead of the Toronto Maple Leafs. From 1939 through the 2018 NHL Finals round, when NHL teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by seven regular-season points, they have posted a best-of-7 playoff series record of 18-15 (.545) in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1387 is the 100th best-of-7 NHL playoff series for the Boston Bruins, and the 77th for the Toronto Maple Leafs. In best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Boston Bruins have an all-rounds series record of 49-50, a Preliminary-round series record of 13-11, and a Game 1 record of 51-48, while the Toronto Maple Leafs have an all-rounds series record of 35-41 (with an active four-series losing streak), a Preliminary-round series record of 8-8, and a Game 1 record of 32-44 (with an active five-Game 1 losing streak). Series 1387 is the 12th best-of-7 NHL playoff series meeting between the Boston Bruins and the Toronto Maple Leafs. The Boston Bruins have won seven of the previous eleven best-of-7 NHL playoff series between the two teams, including that in the 2018 NHL Preliminary round.