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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 GREATEST COMEBACK EVER
Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 ANNIHILATIONS
The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

RESOURCES
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BEST-OF-7 FEATURES
Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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SEARCH RESULTS
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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2019 NHL Preliminary round - Series 1386.
Columbus Blue Jackets vs Tampa Bay Lightning

Schedule and 2018-19 Results
Regular Season Records: Tampa Bay 62-16-4=128pts, Columbus 47-31-4=98pts
Game 1 on Wednesday, 10 April: Columbus wins at Tampa Bay, 4-goals-3
Game 2 on Friday, 12 April: Columbus wins at Tampa Bay, 5-goals-1
Game 3 on Sunday, 14 April: Tampa Bay loses at Columbus, 3-goals-1
Game 4 on Tuesday, 16 April: Tampa Bay loses at Columbus, 7-goals-3

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 4: The Columbus Blue Jackets hosted and defeated the Tampa Bay Lightning 7-goals-3 to complete a 4-games-nil best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1386 victory. With the series 1386 win, the Columbus Blue Jackets improve their best-of-7 NHL playoff series record to 1-4 overall and 1-4 in the Preliminary round. With the series 1386 loss, the Tampa Bay Lightning see their best-of-7 NHL playoff series record fall to 14-10 overall and 6-5 in the Preliminary round. The win order for the victorious Columbus Blue Jackets in series 1386 was WWWW: Series 1386 thus becomes the 33rd NHL Preliminary-round series, the 118th NHL series (all rounds), and the 228th MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow that win order to completion. Series 1386 becomes the first best-of-7 NHL playoff series victory by the Columbus Blue Jackets in five tries. Series 1386 becomes the largest upset sweep in best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL history, in that the sweeping Columbus Blue Jackets trailed the swept Tampa Bay Lightning by 30 regular-season points (the equivalent of 15 games); previously, the largest regular-season point or game margin between sweeping and swept team was 14 regular-season games (analogous to 28 points), in the 1954 MLB season between the 97-57 New York Giants and the 111-43 Cleveland Indians - New York swept Cleveland in series 101, in the 1954 MLB Finals. So it is that, 65 years later, a sweeping Ohio team replaces a swept Ohio team in the record books.

After Game 3: The Columbus Blue Jackets hosted and defeated the Tampa Bay Lightning 3-goals-1 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1386 lead of 3-games-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-nil, the Columbus Blue Jackets have a series record of 0-0 and a Game 4 record of 0-0. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-nil, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a series record of 0-1 and a Game 4 record of 0-1. The Columbus Blue Jackets in series 1386 lead a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 3-games-nil for the first time in franchise history; the Tampa Bay Lightning trail such a series 3-games-nil for only the second time since series 1222, which they lost in a four-game sweep to the Montreal Canadiens in the 2014 NHL Preliminary round. Tampa Bay becomes the 360th MLB/NBA/NHL team to fall behind a best-of-7 playoff series 3-games-nil, and hopes to become the sixth team to rally for a 4-games-3 series victory.

After Game 2: The Columbus Blue Jackets visited and bested the Tampa Bay Lightning 5-goals-1 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1386 lead of 2-games-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Columbus Blue Jackets have a series record of 0-1 and a Game 3 record of 0-1. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a series record of 1-3 and a Game 3 record of 3-1. Columbus also opened their 2018 NHL Preliminary-round series (series 1355 against the Washington Capitals) with a 2-games-nil lead before succumbing to Washington in six games. With the series 1386 Game 2 win, Columbus becomes only the fourth NHL team to trail a best-of-7 playoff opponent by 30 or more points but take a 2-games-nil lead against that opponent (and the first since the 1977 NHL Quarterfinals, when the Toronto Maple Leafs did so against the Philadelphia Flyers in series 323 - which Philadelphia won in six games).

After Game 1: The Columbus Blue Jackets visited and defeated the Tampa Bay Lightning 4-goals-3 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1386 lead of 1-game-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Columbus Blue Jackets have a series record of 0-1 and a Game 2 record of 1-0. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a series record of 7-7 and a Game 2 record of 10-4. The visiting Columbus Blue Jackets trailed by three goals as late as 9:14 into the second period, by two goals as late as 7:55 into the third period, and by a goal as late as 11:53 into the third period: In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff games, road teams down three goals as late as 9:14 into the second period had a game record of only 2-165 (.012), while road teams down two goals as late as 7:55 into the third period had a game record of only 13-480 (.026), and road teams down one goal as late as 11:53 into the third period had a game record of only 85-613 (.122). Series 1386 marks the third consecutive best-of-7 NHL playoff series in which a road team won Game 1 upon trailing its host by 30 or more regular-season points (in series 1089, the Montreal Canadiens defeated the Capitals in Washington 3-goals-2 in 2010 NHL Preliminary-round Game 1 upon trailing Washington by 33 regular-season points; in series 873, the New York Islanders defeated the Senators in Ottawa 3-goals-nil in 2003 NHL Preliminary-round Game 1 upon trailing Ottawa by 30 regular-season points).

Pre-series assessment: In the 2018-19 NHL regular season, the Tampa Bay Lightning finished 30 points ahead of the Columbus Blue Jackets. From 1939 through the 2018 NHL Finals round, when NHL teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by 30 regular-season points, they have posted a best-of-7 playoff series record of 5-1 (.833) in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1386 is the 24th best-of-7 NHL playoff series for the Tampa Bay Lightning, and the fifth for the Columbus Blue Jackets. In best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Tampa Bay Lightning have an all-rounds series record of 14-9, a Preliminary-round series record of 6-4, and a Game 1 record of 9-14, while the Columbus Blue Jackets have an all-rounds series record of 0-4, a Preliminary-round series record of 0-4, and a Game 1 record of 1-3. Series 1386 is the first best-of-7 NHL playoff series meeting between the Tampa Bay Lightning and the Columbus Blue Jackets.