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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 GREATEST COMEBACK EVER
Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2019 NBA Semifinals round - Series 1414.
Portland Trailblazers vs Golden State Warriors

Schedule and 2018-19 Results:
Regular Season Records: Golden State 57-25, Portland 53-29
Game 1 on Tuesday, 14 May: Portland loses at Golden State, 116-pts-94
Game 2 on Thursday, 16 May: Portland loses at Golden State, 114-pts-111
Game 3 on Saturday, 18 May: Golden State wins at Portland, 110-pts-99
Game 4 on Monday, 20 May: Golden State at Portland
Game 5* on Wednesday, 22 May: Portland at Golden State
Game 6* on Friday, 24 May: Golden State at Portland
Game 7* on Sunday, 26 May: Portland at Golden State
*if needed

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading 3-games-nil:
Ignoring win order; ignoring site order: The team leading 3-games-nil irrespective of site order (Golden State) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2019 NHL and NBA Quarterfinals rounds:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 359-5 (.986)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Semifinals round: 85-1 (.988)
series record, NBA only, all rounds: 135-0 (1.000)
series record, NBA only, Semifinals round: 30-0 (1.000)
Game 4 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 232-132 (.637)
Game 4 record, all best-of-7 sports, Semifinals round: 50-36 (.581)
Game 4 record, NBA only, all rounds: 83-52 (.615)
Game 4 record, NBA only, Semifinals round: 17-13 (.567)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1409 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2019 NHL and NBA Quarterfinals rounds. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading 3-games-nil @ HHV:
Ignoring win order; considering site order: The team leading 3-games-nil with site order HHV (Golden State) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2019 NHL and NBA Quarterfinals rounds:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 267-4 (.985)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Semifinals round: 54-1 (.982)
series record, NBA only, all rounds: 111-0 (1.000)
series record, NBA only, Semifinals round: 19-0 (1.000)
Game 4 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 168-103 (.620)
Game 4 record, all best-of-7 sports, Semifinals round: 31-24 (.564)
Game 4 record, NBA only, all rounds: 66-45 (.595)
Game 4 record, NBA only, Semifinals round: 11-8 (.579)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1409 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2019 NHL and NBA Quarterfinals rounds. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 3: The Golden State Warriors visited and bested the Portland Trailblazers 110-pts-99 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1414 lead of 3-games-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-nil, the Golden State Warriors have a series record of 9-0 and a Game 4 record of 6-3. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-nil, the Portland Trailblazers have a series record of 0-8 and a Game 4 record of 5-3. The Portland Trailblazers in series 1414 become the 366th MLB/NBA/NHL team to fall behind three-games-nil in a best-of-7 playoff series, and will attempt to become the sixth team (and the first NBA team) to rally for a four-games-three series victory. MLB/NBA/NHL teams leading a best-of-7 playoff series three-games-nil (such as the Golden State Warriors) have an active 47-series winning streak. Golden State trailed at Portland 66-pts-53 at halftime of series 1414 Game 3, but won: In the history of best-of-7 NBA playoff games, road teams down 13 points at halftime had a game record of only 4-56 (.067). Ironically, the last NBA team to surmount a 13-point halftime deficit for a best-of-7 NBA playoff game victory was also the Golden State Warriors (in series 1339 Game 3 in the 2017 NBA Preliminary round - also against the Trailblazers in Portland).

After Game 2: The Golden State Warriors hosted and bested the Portland Trailblazers 114-pts-111 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1414 lead of 2-games-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Golden State Warriors have a series record of 13-1 (with an active eight-series winning streak) and a Game 3 record of 9-5. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Portland Trailblazers have a series record of 2-10 and a Game 3 record of 4-8. Golden State trailed Portland at home by fifteen points at halftime, but won series 1414 Game 2. In the history of best-of-7 NBA playoff games, home teams trailing by 15 points at halftime had a game record of only 6-10 (.375).

After Game 1: The Golden State Warriors hosted and defeated the Portland Trailblazers 116-pts-94 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1414 lead of 1-game-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Golden State Warriors have a series record of 21-4 (with an active ten-series winning streak) and a Game 2 record of 14-11. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Portland Trailblazers have a series record of 4-16 and a Game 2 record of 8-12. The series 1414 Game 1 victory by the Golden State Warriors extends their best-of-7 NBA playoff Game 1 winning streak to twelve.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2018-19 NBA regular season, the Golden State Warriors finished four games ahead of the Portland Trailblazers. From 1947 through the 2019 NHL and NBA Quarterfinals, when NBA teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by four regular-season games, they have posted a best-of-7 playoff series record of 28-12 (.700) in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1414 is the 36th best-of-7 NBA playoff series for the Golden State Warriors, and the 32nd for the Portland Trailblazers. In best-of-7 NBA playoff series, the Golden State Warriors have an all-rounds series record of 24-11 (with an active ten-series winning streak befitting a two-time defending NBA champion), a Semifinals-round series record of 5-2 (with an active four-series winning streak), and a Game 1 record of 25-10 (with an active 11-Game 1 winning streak), while the Portland Trailblazers have an all-rounds series record of 14-17, a Semifinals-round series record of 3-3, and a Game 1 record of 11-20. Series 1414 is the third best-of-7 NBA playoff series meeting between the Golden State Warriors and the Portland Trailblazers. Golden State defeated Portland in the best-of-7 NBA Quarterfinals round in 2016 (series 1312) and in the best-of-7 NBA Preliminary round in 2017 (series 1339).