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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2019 NBA Semifinals round - Series 1413.
Toronto Raptors vs Milwaukee Bucks

Schedule and 2018-19 Results:
Regular Season Records: Milwaukee 60-22, Toronto 58-24
Game 1 on Wednesday, 15 May: Toronto loses at Milwaukee, 108-pts-100
Game 2 on Friday, 17 May: Toronto loses at Milwaukee, 125-pts-103
Game 3 on Sunday, 19 May: Milwaukee at Toronto
Game 4 on Tuesday, 21 May: Milwaukee at Toronto
Game 5* on Thursday, 23 May: Toronto at Milwaukee
Game 6* on Saturday, 25 May: Milwaukee at Toronto
Game 7* on Monday, 27 May: Toronto at Milwaukee
*if needed

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading 2-games-nil:
Ignoring win order; ignoring site order: The team leading 2-games-nil irrespective of site order (Milwaukee) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2019 NHL and NBA Quarterfinals rounds:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 679-84 (.890)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Semifinals round: 168-15 (.918)
series record, NBA only, all rounds: 287-20 (.935)
series record, NBA only, Semifinals round: 67-5 (.931)
Game 3 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 364-399 (.477)
Game 3 record, all best-of-7 sports, Semifinals round: 86-97 (.470)
Game 3 record, NBA only, all rounds: 135-172 (.440)
Game 3 record, NBA only, Semifinals round: 30-42 (.417)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1409 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2019 NHL and NBA Quarterfinals rounds. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading 2-games-nil @ HH:
Ignoring win order; considering site order: The team leading 2-games-nil with site order HH (Milwaukee) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2019 NHL and NBA Quarterfinals rounds:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 537-57 (.904)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Semifinals round: 116-14 (.892)
series record, NBA only, all rounds: 248-16 (.939)
series record, NBA only, Semifinals round: 48-5 (.906)
Game 3 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 271-323 (.456)
Game 3 record, all best-of-7 sports, Semifinals round: 55-75 (.423)
Game 3 record, NBA only, all rounds: 111-153 (.420)
Game 3 record, NBA only, Semifinals round: 19-34 (.358)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1409 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2019 NHL and NBA Quarterfinals rounds. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 2: The Milwaukee Bucks hosted and defeated the Toronto Raptors 125-pts-103 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1413 lead of 2-games-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Milwaukee Bucks have a series record of 8-0 and a Game 3 record of 5-3. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Toronto Raptors have a series record of 0-5 and a Game 3 record of 2-3.

After Game 1: The Milwaukee Bucks hosted and defeated the Toronto Raptors 108-pts-100 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1413 lead of 1-game-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Milwaukee Bucks have a series record of 9-3 and a Game 2 record of 8-4. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Toronto Raptors have a series record of 4-7 and a Game 2 record of 6-5. When leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 1-game-nil (as the Milwaukee Bucks now do in series 1413 against the Toronto Raptors), the Milwaukee Bucks Game 2 outcome has matched their series outcome in their last 11 such series. When trailing a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 1-game-nil (as the Toronto Raptors now do in series 1413 against the Milwaukee Bucks), the Toronto Raptors Game 2 outcome has matched their series outcome in their last eight such series. Milwaukee trailed Toronto 83-pts-76 after three quarters, but prevailed: In the history of best-of-7 NBA playoff games, home teams down seven points after three quarters had a game record of only 12-51 (.190) prior to series 1413 Game 1.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2018-19 NBA regular season, the Milwaukee Bucks finished two games ahead of the Toronto Raptors. From 1947 through the 2019 NHL and NBA Quarterfinals, when NBA teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by two regular-season games, they have posted a best-of-7 playoff series record of 21-13 (.618) in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1413 is the 37th best-of-7 NBA playoff series for the Milwaukee Bucks, and the 15th for the Toronto Raptors. In best-of-7 NBA playoff series, the Milwaukee Bucks have an all-rounds series record of 13-23, a Semifinals-round series record of 2-6 (with an active four-series losing streak), and a Game 1 record of 12-24, while the Toronto Raptors have an all-rounds series record of 6-8, a Semifinals-round series record of 0-1, and a Game 1 record of 3-11. Series 1413 is the second best-of-7 NBA playoff series meeting between the Milwaukee Bucks and the Toronto Raptors. Toronto defeated Milwaukee in six games in their only previous best-of-7 NBA playoff series meeting, in series 1337 in the 2017 NBA Preliminary round.