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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2019 NBA Preliminary round - Series 1408.
Utah Jazz vs Houston Rockets

Schedule and 2018-19 Results
Regular Season Records: Houston 53-29, Utah 50-32
Game 1 on Sunday, 14 April: Utah loses at Houston, 122-pts-90
Game 2 on Wednesday, 17 April: Utah at Houston, 118-pts-98
Game 3 on Saturday, 20 April: Houston at Utah
Game 4 on Monday, 22 April: Houston at Utah
Game 5* on Wednesday, 24 April: Utah at Houston
Game 6* on Friday, 26 April: Houston at Utah
Game 7* on Sunday, 28 April: Utah at Houston
* if needed

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading 2-games-nil:
Ignoring win order; ignoring site order: The team leading 2-games-nil irrespective of site order (Houston) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2018 MLB Finals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 670-83 (.890)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 179-27 (.869)
series record, NBA only, all rounds: 282-20 (.934)
series record, NBA only, Preliminary round: 77-6 (.928)
Game 3 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 358-395 (.475)
Game 3 record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 94-112 (.456)
Game 3 record, NBA only, all rounds: 132-170 (.437)
Game 3 record, NBA only, Preliminary round: 39-44 (.470)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1385 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2018 MLB Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading 2-games-nil @ HH:
Ignoring win order; considering site order: The team leading 2-games-nil with site order HH (Houston) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2018 MLB Finals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 531-56 (.905)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 149-15 (.909)
series record, NBA only, all rounds: 243-16 (.938)
series record, NBA only, Preliminary round: 72-4 (.947)
Game 3 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 267-320 (.455)
Game 3 record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 77-87 (.470)
Game 3 record, NBA only, all rounds: 108-151 (.417)
Game 3 record, NBA only, Preliminary round: 37-39 (.487)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1385 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2018 MLB Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 2: The Houston Rockets hosted and defeated the Utah Jazz 118-pts-98 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1408 lead of 2-games-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Houston Rockets have a series record of 7-2 and a Game 3 record of 2-7. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Utah Jazz have a series record of 1-14 (with an active six-series losing streak) and a Game 3 record of 11-4.

After Game 1: The Houston Rockets hosted and bested the Utah Jazz 122-pts-90 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1408 lead of 1-game-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Houston Rockets have a series record of 13-4 and a Game 2 record of 9-8. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Utah Jazz have a series record of 3-16 and a Game 2 record of 4-15.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2018-19 NBA regular season, the Houston Rockets finished three games ahead of the Utah Jazz. From 1947 through the 2018 NBA Finals round, when NBA teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by three regular-season games, they have posted a best-of-7 playoff series record of 19-17 (.528) in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1408 is the 39th best-of-7 NBA playoff series for the Houston Rockets, and the 33rd for the Utah Jazz. In best-of-7 NBA playoff series, the Houston Rockets have an all-rounds series record of 18-20, a Preliminary-round series record of 4-7, and a Game 1 record of 17-21, while the Utah Jazz have an all-rounds series record of 13-19, a Preliminary-round series record of 5-3, and a Game 1 record of 13-19. Series 1408 is the sixth best-of-7 NBA playoff series meeting between the Houston Rockets and the Utah Jazz. Utah won three of the five preceding best-of-7 NBA playoff series between the two teams, although Houston prevailed in the last such series (in the 2018 NBA Quarterfinals).