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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 GREATEST COMEBACK EVER
Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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SEARCH RESULTS
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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2019 NBA Preliminary round - Series 1404.
Indiana Pacers vs Boston Celtics

Schedule and 2018-19 Results
Regular Season Records: Boston 49-33, Indiana 48-34
Game 1 on Sunday, 14 April: Indiana loses at Boston, 84-pts-74
Game 2 on Wednesday, 17 April: Indiana loses at Boston, 99-pts-91
Game 3 on Friday, 19 April: Boston at Indiana
Game 4 on Sunday, 21 April: Boston at Indiana
Game 5* on Wednesday, 24 April: Indiana at Boston
Game 6* on Friday, 26 April: Boston at Indiana
Game 7* on Sunday, 28 April: Indiana at Boston
* if needed

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading 2-games-nil:
Ignoring win order; ignoring site order: The team leading 2-games-nil irrespective of site order (Boston) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2018 MLB Finals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 670-83 (.890)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 179-27 (.869)
series record, NBA only, all rounds: 282-20 (.934)
series record, NBA only, Preliminary round: 77-6 (.928)
Game 3 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 358-395 (.475)
Game 3 record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 94-112 (.456)
Game 3 record, NBA only, all rounds: 132-170 (.437)
Game 3 record, NBA only, Preliminary round: 39-44 (.470)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1385 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2018 MLB Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading 2-games-nil @ HH:
Ignoring win order; considering site order: The team leading 2-games-nil with site order HH (Boston) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2018 MLB Finals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 531-56 (.905)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 149-15 (.909)
series record, NBA only, all rounds: 243-16 (.938)
series record, NBA only, Preliminary round: 72-4 (.947)
Game 3 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 267-320 (.455)
Game 3 record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 77-87 (.470)
Game 3 record, NBA only, all rounds: 108-151 (.417)
Game 3 record, NBA only, Preliminary round: 37-39 (.487)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1385 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2018 MLB Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 2: The Boston Celtics hosted and defeated the Indiana Pacers 99-pts-91 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1404 lead of 2-games-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Boston Celtics have a series record of 37-1 and a Game 3 record of 14-24. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Indiana Pacers have a series record of 0-6 and a Game 3 record of 4-2. The Boston Celtics trailed the visiting Indiana Pacers 79-pts-68 after three quarters of series 1404 Game 2, but won. In the history of best-of-7 NBA playoff games since 1947, inclusive, home teams trailing by 11 points after three quarters had a game record of only 5-35 (.125). The Boston Celtics have a 37-1 best-of-7 NBA playoff series record upon winning Games 1-2; the sole loss occurred in their last such series - series 1380, in the 2018 NBA Semifinals to the Cleveland Cavaliers.

After Game 1: The Boston Celtics hosted and defeated the Indiana Pacers 84-pts-74 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1404 lead of 1-game-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Boston Celtics have a series record of 55-6 and a Game 2 record of 38-23 (with an active four-Game 2 winning streak). When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Indiana Pacers have a series record of 4-11 and a Game 2 record of 9-6. Host Boston trailed Indiana by seven points at halftime, but prevailed in series 1404 Game 1: In the history of best-of-7 NBA playoff games since 1947, inclusive, home teams down seven points at halftime had a game record of only 21-52 (.288) prior to series 1404 Game 1.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2018-19 NBA regular season, the Boston Celtics finished one game ahead of the Indiana Pacers. From 1947 through the 2018 NBA Finals round, when NBA teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by one regular-season game, they have posted a best-of-7 playoff series record of 18-22 (.450) in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1404 is the 94th best-of-7 NBA playoff series for the Boston Celtics, and the 31st for the Indiana Pacers. In best-of-7 NBA playoff series, the Boston Celtics have an all-rounds series record of 66-27, a Preliminary-round series record of 8-5, and a Game 1 record of 61-32, while the Indiana Pacers have an all-rounds series record of 14-16 (with an active four-series losing streak), a Preliminary-round series record of 5-6, and a Game 1 record of 15-15. Series 1404 is the fourth best-of-7 NBA playoff series meeting between the Boston Celtics and the Indiana Pacers. Boston defeated Indiana in the 2003 NBA Preliminary round, while Indiana defeated Boston in the 2004 and 2005 NBA Preliminary rounds.