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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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2019 MLB Finals round - Series 1418.
Washington Nationals vs Houston Astros

Schedule and 2019 Results
Regular Season Records: Houston 107-55, Washington 93-69
Game 1 on Tuesday, 22 October: Washington wins at Houston, 5-runs-4
Game 2 on Wednesday, 23 October: Washington wins at Houston, 12-runs-3
Game 3 on Friday, 25 October: Houston wins at Washington, 4-runs-1
Game 4 on Saturday, 26 October: Houston wins at Washington, 8-runs-1
Game 5 on Sunday, 27 October: Houston wins at Washington, 7-runs-1
Game 6 on Tuesday, 29 October: Washington wins at Houston, 7-runs-2
Game 7 on Wednesday, 30 October: Washington wins at Houston, 6-runs-2

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 7: The Washington Nationals visited and bested the Houston Astros 6-runs-2 to complete a 4-games-3 best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1418 victory. With the series 1418 win, the Washington Nationals improve their best-of-7 MLB playoff series record to 2-0 overall and 1-0 in the Finals round. With the series 1418 loss, the Houston Astros see their best-of-7 MLB playoff series record fall to 4-5 overall and 1-2 in the Finals round. The win order for the victorious Washington Nationals in series 1418 was WWLLLWW: Series 1418 thus becomes the fourth MLB Finals-round series, the sixth MLB series (all rounds), and the 26th MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow that win order to completion. With the Washington Nationals victory in series 1418 Game 7, road teams now own a 6-Game 7 winning streak in MLB/NBA/NHL Finals. Road teams had won 11 of 14 Finals Game 7s (beginning with the 1965 MLB Los Angeles Dodgers and ending with the 1979 MLB Pittsburgh Pirates), but home teams then won 18 straight Finals Game 7s (beginning with the 1982 MLB St. Louis Cardinals and ending with the 2006 NHL Carolina Hurricanes). The Washington Nationals plated 90.9% of their runs in series 1418 on the road - that percentage breaks the MLB record in playoff series lasting the full seven games, set by the Detroit Tigers in series 55 (in the 1945 World Series - 87.5%). In series 1418 - the 1418th MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series and the first in which road teams won all seven games - road teams accounted for 77.8% of the scoring (breaking the record of 73.8% in series lasting all seven games, as set in series 201 (the 1968 World Series won by the Detroit Tigers over the St. Louis Cardinals)). The Washington Nationals in series 1418 tie for the second-largest upset victory in best-of-7 MLB Finals history, having trailed the Houston Astros by fourteen regular-season games. The old New York Giants also trailed the Cleveland Indians by fourteen regular-season games in 1954, but won the 1954 World Series. The Chicago White Sox trailed the Chicago Cubs by 22.5 regular-season games in 1906, but won the 1906 World Series. With an 8-3 (.727) best-of-7 MLB playoff game record, the Washington Nationals now own the highest best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff game winning percentage, surmounting the MLB Angels as the "Anaheim Angels," which under that identifier posted an 8-4 (.667) best-of-7 MLB playoff game record.

After Game 6: The Washington Nationals visited and outscored the Houston Astros 7-runs-2 to tie best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1418 at 3-games-all. When tied 3-games-all in a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, the Houston Astros have a Game 7 record of 2-1, while the Washington Nationals have a Game 7 record of 0-0. Series 1418 Game 7 is the first Game 7 for the Washington Nationals. The Astros in Houston have a 1-0 Game 7 record. Through six games of series 1418, the Houston Astros have posted a LLWWWL @ HHVVVH win/site record: In series 937, the Astros posted a LLWWWLL @ VVHHHVV win/site order in their loss to the St. Louis Cardinals in the 2004 National League Championship Series. Series 1418 becomes the first best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series in which the road team has won six games.

After Game 5: The Houston Astros visited and bested the Washington Nationals 7-runs-1 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1418 lead of 3-games-2. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Houston Astros have a series record of 3-1 and a Game 6 record of 2-2. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Washington Nationals have a series record of 0-0 and a Game 6 record of 0-0. Series 1418 thus matches series 722 (the 1996 World Series) in which the road team won the first five games through a LLWWW @ HHVVV win/site order. The only other best-of-7 MLB playoff series in which the road team won the first five games was series 2, in which the Chicago Cubs posted a LWLWL @ HVHVH win/site order through five games against the Chicago White Sox in the 1906 World Series (the Cubs then lost Game 6 on the road). The three total runs scored by the Nationals in Washington in series 1418 Games 3-5 set a new record for the fewest total runs by the home team in Games 3-5 of a best-of-7 MLB playoff series, breaking the previous record of five runs at home in Games 3-5, as set by the St. Louis Cardinals in series 458 (the 1985 World Series) and tied by the Texas Rangers in series 1121 (the 2010 World Series), the Chicago Cubs in series 1319 (the 2016 World Series), and the Cubs in series 1351 (the 2017 National League Championship Series). The 16-run deficit by the Nationals in Washington to the Houston Astros in series 1418 Games 3-5 ties that by the Reds in Cincinnati in series 144 (1961 World Series) Games 3-5 and the Red Sox in Boston in series 1053 (2008 American League Championship Series) Games 3-5 for the largest total run deficit at home in Games 3-5 of a best-of-7 MLB playoff series.

After Game 4: The Houston Astros visited and defeated the Washington Nationals 8-runs-1 to tie best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1418 at 2-games-all. When tied 2-games-all in a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, the Houston Astros have a series record of 2-2 and a Game 5 record of 2-2, while the Washington Nationals have a series record of 0-0 and a Game 5 record of 0-0. For the Houston Astros, who stand LLWW @ HHVV after four games of series 1418, both favorable series victory precedents originating from LLWW @ HHVV come from New York (by the Mets in series 475, in the 1986 World Series against the Boston Red Sox in seven games; by the Yankees in series 722, in the 1996 World Series against the Atlanta Braves in six games). For the Washington Nationals, who stand WWLL @ VVHH after four games of series 1418, the sole favorable series victory precedent originating from WWLL @ VVHH comes from the Toronto Blue Jays (in series 648, in the 1993 American League Championship Series against the Chicago White Sox in six games). The sum of the victory margins through four games of series 1418 is 20 runs - the largest such sum since the aforementioned series 722.

After Game 3: The Houston Astros visited and topped the Washington Nationals 4-runs-1 to reduce the Washington Nationals best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL series 1418 lead to 2-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Washington Nationals have a series record of 0-0 and a Game 4 record of 0-0. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Houston Astros have a series record of 0-3 and a Game 4 record of 2-1. Series 1418 Game 3 constitutes the first-ever best-of-7 MLB playoff game loss for the Washington Nationals, after six consecutive wins in such games. How key was the Game 3 win by the Astros in Washington? In best-of-7 MLB Finals history, teams with a LLW @ HHV win-site order (such as Houston in series 1418 after the Game 3 win) have a series record of 3-2 with an active three-series winning streak. Of the eight teams which began a best-of-7 MLB Finals series LLL @ HHV, seven were swept and the eighth lost the series in five games.

After Game 2: The Washington Nationals visited and topped the Houston Astros 12-runs-3 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1418 lead of 2-games-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Washington Nationals have a series record of 1-0 and a Game 3 record of 1-0. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Houston Astros have a series record of 0-2 and a Game 3 record of 1-1. The six runs in the top of the seventh inning of series 1418 Game 2 tied the highest scoring top of the seventh inning in best-of-7 MLB Finals history, in series 71 Game 5 (in which the old Boston Braves tallied six runs in the top of the seventh inning against the Indians in Cleveland). The dozen runs by the visiting Washington Nationals makes series 1418 Game 2 the highest-scoring World Series Game 2 for a visiting team since series 137 (in which the New York Yankees tallied sixteen runs against the Pirates in Pittsburgh, in 1960 World Series Game 2).

After Game 1: The Washington Nationals visited and bested the Houston Astros 5-runs-4 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1418 lead of 1-game-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Washington Nationals have a series record of 1-0 and a Game 2 record of 1-0. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Houston Astros have a series record of 3-2 and a Game 2 record of 3-2. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 1-game-nil, the Houston Astros have had their Game 2 outcome match their series outcome in all five such series (three wins [including the 2019 American League Championship Series]; two losses). Series 1418 Game 1 becomes the first best-of-7 MLB Finals Game 1 since series 1286 Game 1 (2015 World Series - New York Mets at Kansas City Royals) in which both teams held an in-game lead. In the history of best-of-7 MLB Finals, road teams winning Game 1 by one run (such as the Washington Nationals) have a 12-7 (.632) series record.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2019 MLB regular season, the Houston Astros finished 14 games ahead of the Washington Nationals. From 1905 through the 2019 MLB Semifinals round, when MLB teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by 14 regular-season games, they have posted a best-of-7 playoff series record of 1-1 (.500) in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1418 is the ninth best-of-7 MLB playoff series for the Houston Astros, and the second for the Washington Nationals. In best-of-7 MLB playoff series, the Houston Astros have an all-rounds series record of 4-4, a Finals-round series record of 1-1, and a Game 1 record of 3-5, while the Washington Nationals have an all-rounds series record of 1-0, a Finals-round series record of 0-0, and a Game 1 record of 1-0. Series 1418 is the first best-of-7 MLB playoff series meeting between the Houston Astros and the Washington Nationals. The 14-game regular-season differential between the Houston Astros and the Washington Nationals ties for the fifth-largest such differential between opponents in a best-of-7 format MLB Finals series. The largest such differential was between the 116-36 Chicago Cubs and the 93-58 Chicago White Sox in the 1906 World Series; the White Sox prevailed in six games.