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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2018 NHL Finals round - Series 1367.
Washington Capitals vs Vegas Golden Knights

Schedule and 2017-18 Results
Regular Season Records: Vegas 51-24-7=109pts, Washington 49-26-7=105pts
Game 1 on Monday, 28 May: Washington loses at Vegas, 6-goals-4
Game 2 on Wednesday, 30 May: Washington wins at Vegas, 3-goals-2
Game 3 on Saturday, 02 June: Vegas loses at Washington, 3-goals-1
Game 4 on Monday, 04 June: Vegas loses at Washington, 6-goals-2
Game 5 on Thursday, 07 June: Washington wins at Vegas, 4-goals-3

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 5: The Washington Capitals visited and defeated the Vegas Golden Knights 4-goals-3 to complete a 4-games-1 best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1367 victory. With the series 1367 win, the Washington Capitals improve their best-of-7 NHL playoff series record to 18-25 overall and 1-1 in the Finals round. With the series 1367 loss, the Vegas Golden Knights see their best-of-7 NHL playoff series record fall to 3-1 overall and 0-1 in the Finals round. The win order for the victorious Washington Capitals in series 1367 was LWWWW: Series 1367 thus becomes the sixth NHL Finals-round series, the 36th NHL series (all rounds), and the 61st MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow that win order to completion.

After Game 4: The Washington Capitals hosted and defeated the Vegas Golden Knights 6-goals-2 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1367 lead of 3-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Washington Capitals have a series record of 7-5 and a Game 5 record of 3-9. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Vegas Golden Knights have a series record of 0-0 and a Game 5 record of 0-0. In the history of best-of-7 NHL Finals series, the only team to surmount a 3-games-1 deficit for a 4-games-3 series victory was the Toronto Maple Leafs in series 42, in the 1942 NHL Finals against the Detroit Red Wings (a series which Toronto had trailed 3-games-nil after three games). The Washington Capitals have lost an MLB/NBA/NHL-leading five best-of-7 playoff series upon having led 3-games-1.

After Game 3: The Washington Capitals hosted and defeated the Vegas Golden Knights 3-goals-1 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1367 lead of 2-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Washington Capitals have a series record of 8-11 and a Game 4 record of 11-8. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Vegas Golden Knights have a series record of 0-0 and a Game 4 record of 0-0. The Washington Capitals have become the ninth team to open a best-of-7 NHL Finals with an LWW @ VVH win/site order, and the first to do so since the Boston Bruins in 2013. For seven of the eight previous teams to do so, their Game 4 outcome matched their series outcome, with only the 1967 Toronto Maple Leafs losing Game 4 but winning the series.

After Game 2: The Washington Capitals visited and defeated the Vegas Golden Knights 3-goals-2 to knot best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1367 at 1-game-all. When tied 1-game-all in a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, the Vegas Golden Knights have a series record of 2-0 and a Game 3 record of 2-0, while the Washington Capitals have a series record of 11-14 and a Game 3 record of 11-14. In the history of best-of-7 NHL Finals series, teams posting a win/site order of WL @ HH through two games (as Vegas has done in series 1367) have an active four-series winning streak.

After Game 1: The Vegas Golden Knights hosted and defeated the Washington Capitals 6-goals-4 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1367 lead of 1-game-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Vegas Golden Knights have a series record of 2-0 and a Game 2 record of 1-1. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Washington Capitals have a series record of 9-9 and a Game 2 record of 10-8. The ten total goals in series 1367 Game 1 were the most in Game 1 of a best-of-7 NHL Finals series since 2010, when the Chicago Blackhawks hosted and defeated the Philadelphia Flyers 6-goals-5 in series 1103 Game 1.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2017-18 NHL regular season, the Vegas Golden Knights finished four points ahead of the Washington Capitals. From 1939 through the 2018 NHL Semifinals round, when NHL teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by four regular-season points, they have posted a best-of-7 playoff series record of 14-16 (.467) in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1367 is the fourth best-of-7 NHL playoff series for the Vegas Golden Knights, and the 43rd for the Washington Capitals. In best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Vegas Golden Knights have an all-rounds series record of 3-0, a Finals-round series record of 0-0, and a Game 1 record of 2-1, while the Washington Capitals have an all-rounds series record of 17-25, a Finals-round series record of 0-1, and a Game 1 record of 24-18.