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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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2018 NHL Semifinals round - Series 1365.
Washington Capitals vs Tampa Bay Lightning

Schedule and 2017-18 Results
Regular Season Records: Tampa Bay 54-23-5=113pts, Washington 49-26-7=105pts
Game 1 on Friday, 11 May: Washington wins at Tampa Bay, 4-goals-2
Game 2 on Sunday, 13 May: Washington wins at Tampa Bay, 6-goals-2
Game 3 on Tuesday, 15 May: Tampa Bay wins at Washington, 4-goals-2
Game 4 on Thursday, 17 May: Tampa Bay wins at Washington, 4-goals-2
Game 5 on Saturday, 19 May: Washington loses at Tampa Bay, 3-goals-2
Game 6 on Monday, 21 May: Tampa Bay loses at Washington, 3-goals-nil
Game 7 on Wednesday, 23 May: Washington wins at Tampa Bay, 4-goals-nil

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 7: The Washington Capitals visited and shut out the Tampa Bay Lightning 4-goals-nil to complete a 4-games-3 best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1365 victory. With the series 1365 win, the Washington Capitals improve their best-of-7 NHL playoff series record to 17-25 overall and 2-1 in the Semifinals round. With the series 1365 loss, the Tampa Bay Lightning see their best-of-7 NHL playoff series record fall to 14-9 overall and 2-3 in the Semifinals round. The win order for the victorious Washington Capitals in series 1365 was WWLLLWW: Series 1365 thus becomes the third NHL Semifinals-round series, the tenth NHL series (all rounds), and the 25th MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow that win order to completion. All five appearances by the Tampa Bay Lightning in best-of-7 NHL Semifinals series have resulted in series requiring the full seven games. Series 1365 becomes the fifth best-of-7 NHL series in which the vanquished team suffered shutout losses in both Games 6 and 7. The series immediately preceding series 1365 in that regard was series 1190, when it was the Washington Capitals on the receiving end of Game 6 and 7 shutouts from the New York Rangers in their 2013 NHL Preliminary-round series. The Tampa Bay Lightning had not scored in series 1365 since the 0:33 mark of the second period in Game 5. The longest scoring drought suffered by an NHL team shut out in Games 6 and 7 of a best-of-7 NHL playoff series was suffered by the Colorado Avalanche, which last scored at the 16:20 mark of the first period against the Edmonton Oilers in their 1998 NHL Preliminary-round Game 5 (in series 753).

After Game 6: The Washington Capitals hosted and shut out the Tampa Bay Lightning 3-goals-nil to knot best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1365 at 3-games-all. When tied 3-games-all in a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a Game 7 record of 5-2, while the Washington Capitals have a Game 7 record of 4-11. The Tampa Bay Lightning have a 3-0 Game 7 record in Tampa Bay. The Washington Capitals have a 1-3 Game 7 record on the road. Irrespective of win/site order, home teams in an NHL Game 7 have a Game 7 record of 100-71 (.585).

After Game 5: The Tampa Bay Lightning hosted and bested the Washington Capitals 3-goals-2 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1365 lead of 3-games-2. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a series record of 4-1 and a Game 6 record of 2-3. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Washington Capitals have a series record of 2-12 (with an active four-series losing streak) and a Game 6 record of 7-7. The Tampa Bay Lightning have a 4-1 best-of-7 NHL playoff series record upon leading such a series 3-games-2, but the loss occurred in the last such series (series 1299, to the Pittsburgh Penguins in the 2016 NHL Semifinals).

After Game 4: The Tampa Bay Lightning visited and topped the Washington Capitals 4-goals-2 to tie best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1365 at 2-games-all. When tied 2-games-all in a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a series record of 5-5 and a Game 5 record of 4-6, while the Washington Capitals have a series record of 7-9 (with an active four-series winning streak) and a Game 5 record of 8-8 (with an active five-Game 5 winning streak). In the history of best-of-7 NHL Semifinals series, teams posting an LLWW @ HHVV win order through four games (such as the Tampa Bay Lightning in series 1365) have only a 1-3 series record: The sole winner was the Detroit Red Wings, in series 53 (in the 1945 NHL Semifinals vs the Boston Bruins). So much for coming home with momentum.

After Game 3: The Tampa Bay Lightning visited and bested the Washington Capitals 4-goals-2 to reduce the Washington Capitals best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL series 1365 lead to 2-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Washington Capitals have a series record of 7-11 and a Game 4 record of 11-7. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a series record of 4-4 and a Game 4 record of 5-3.

After Game 2: The Washington Capitals visited and defeated the Tampa Bay Lightning 6-goals-2 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1365 lead of 2-games-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Washington Capitals have a series record of 3-5 and a Game 3 record of 1-7. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a series record of 1-2 and a Game 3 record of 2-1. The series 1365 Game 2 loss by Tampa Bay breaks their five-Game 2 winning streak in the wake of a 1-game-nil deficit in a best-of-7 NHL playoff series.

After Game 1: The Washington Capitals visited and defeated the Tampa Bay Lightning 4-goals-2 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1365 lead of 1-game-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Washington Capitals have a series record of 7-16 and a Game 2 record of 8-15. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a series record of 7-6 and a Game 2 record of 10-3 (with an active five-Game 2 winning streak). Series 1365 becomes the ninth best-of-7 NHL Semifinals Game 1 to end with a 4-goals-2 score irrespective of site, and the fourth to end 4-goals-2 in favor of the visitors. On the previous three occasions when the visitors won a best-of-7 NHL Semifinals Game 1 by a 4-goals-2 score, their series record was 1-2.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2017-18 NHL regular season, the Tampa Bay Lightning finished eight points ahead of the Washington Capitals. From 1939 through the 2018 NBA and NHL Quarterfinals rounds, when NHL teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by eight regular-season points, they have posted a best-of-7 playoff series record of 18-6 (.750) with an active six-series winning streak in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1365 is the 23rd best-of-7 NHL playoff series for the Tampa Bay Lightning, and the 42nd for the Washington Capitals. In best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Tampa Bay Lightning have an all-rounds series record of 14-8, a Semifinals-round series record of 2-2, and a Game 1 record of 9-13, while the Washington Capitals have an all-rounds series record of 16-25, a Semifinals-round series record of 1-1, and a Game 1 record of 23-18.