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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
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Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
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2018 NHL Quarterfinals round - Series 1361.
Boston Bruins vs Tampa Bay Lightning

Schedule and 2017-18 Results
Regular Season Records: Tampa Bay 54-23-5=113pts, Boston 50-20-12=112pts
Game 1 on Saturday 28 April: Boston wins at Tampa Bay, 6-goals-2
Game 2 on Monday 30 April: Boston loses at Tampa Bay, 4-goals-2
Game 3 on Wednesday 2 May: Tampa Bay wins at Boston, 4-goals-1
Game 4 on Friday 4 May: Tampa Bay wins at Boston, 4-goals-3 (OT)
Game 5 on Sunday 6 May: Boston loses at Tampa Bay, 3-goals-1

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 5: The Tampa Bay Lightning hosted and bested the Boston Bruins 3-goals-1 to complete a 4-games-1 best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1361 victory. With the series 1361 win, the Tampa Bay Lightning improve their best-of-7 NHL playoff series record to 14-8 overall and 5-1 (with an active five-Quarterfinals-round series winning streak) in the Quarterfinals round. With the series 1361 loss, the Boston Bruins see their best-of-7 NHL playoff series record fall to 49-50 overall and 15-12 in the Quarterfinals round. The win order for the victorious Tampa Bay Lightning in series 1361 was LWWWW: Series 1361 thus becomes the 11th NHL Quarterfinals-round series, the 34th NHL series (all rounds), and the 59th MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow that win order to completion. The last MLB/NBA/NHL team to follow a LWWWW win order to completion was also the Tampa Bay Lightning, in series 1295 over the New York Islanders in the 2016 NHL Quarterfinals. The series 1361 loss by the Boston Bruins is the MLB/NBA/NHL-leading 50th best-of-7 playoff series loss by the Boston Bruins (next: 45 best-of-7 playoff series losses, by the NHL Detroit Red Wings). The 5-1 best-of-7 Quarterfinals-round playoff series record by the Tampa Bay Lightning yields the best NBA/NHL Quarterfinals-round playoff series winning percentage among any franchise entity with at least one such series loss (the NHL Carolina Hurricanes have a 3-0 best-of-7 NHL Quarterfinals-round playoff series record). The Boston Bruins end their 2018 playoff run with a total of 273 best-of-7 playoff game losses (a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff-worst; next are the Detroit Red Wings and the Montreal Canadiens with 267 best-of-7 playoff game losses each).

After Game 4: The Tampa Bay Lightning visited and bested the Boston Bruins 4-goals-3 in overtime to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1361 lead of 3-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a series record of 5-0 and a Game 5 record of 4-1. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Boston Bruins have a series record of 0-23 and a Game 5 record of 7-16. Tampa Bay trailed the Bruins in Boston by a goal as late as 12:55 into the third period. In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff games from 1939 through 2017, inclusive, road teams trailing by a goal as late as 12:55 into the third period had a game record of 75-607 (.110).

After Game 3: The Tampa Bay Lightning visited and defeated the Boston Bruins 4-goals-1 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1361 lead of 2-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a series record of 6-3 and a Game 4 record of 4-5. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Boston Bruins have a series record of 8-24 and a Game 4 record of 16-16.

After Game 2: The Tampa Bay Lightning hosted and topped the Boston Bruins 4-goals-2 to tie best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1361 at 1-game-all. When tied 1-game-all in a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a series record of 7-6 and a Game 3 record of 7-6, while the Boston Bruins have a series record of 23-16 and a Game 3 record of 20-19.

After Game 1: The Boston Bruins visited and defeated the Tampa Bay Lightning 6-goals-2 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1361 lead of 1-game-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Boston Bruins have a series record of 35-15 and a Game 2 record of 31-19. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a series record of 6-6 and a Game 2 record of 9-3 (with an active four-Game 2 winning streak). The series 1361 Game 1 victory by the Boston Bruins is the 50th Game 1 victory for this franchise entity in best-of-7 NHL playoff history. The previous occasion on which the Boston Bruins won Game 1 of a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 6-goals-2 was in series 354, in which the Bruins hosted and defeated the Pittsburgh Penguins 6-goals-2 in Game 1 of their 1979 NHL Quarterfinals (which Boston would proceed to sweep). In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff series, teams (such as the 2018 Boston Bruins) which win Game 1 on the road by four goals have a 4-2 series record; the last such series was series 1131, in which the Boston Bruins defeated the Flyers in Philadelphia 7-goals-3 in Game 1 of their 2011 NHL Quarterfinals series (which Boston would sweep en route to the 2011 NHL championship).

Pre-series assessment: In the 2017-18 NHL regular season, the Tampa Bay Lightning finished one point ahead of the Boston Bruins. From 1939 through the 2018 NHL Preliminary round, when NHL teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by one regular-season point, they have posted a best-of-7 playoff series record of 12-9 (.571) in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1361 is the 22nd best-of-7 NHL playoff series for the Tampa Bay Lightning, and the 99th for the Boston Bruins. In best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Tampa Bay Lightning have an all-rounds series record of 13-8, a Quarterfinals-round series record of 4-1 with an active four-series winning streak, and a Game 1 record of 9-12, while the Boston Bruins have an all-rounds series record of 49-49, a Quarterfinals-round series record of 15-11, and a Game 1 record of 50-48. Series 1361 is the second best-of-7 NHL playoff series meeting between the Tampa Bay Lightning and the Boston Bruins. In their only previous best-of-7 NHL playoff series meeting, the Boston Bruins defeated the Tampa Bay Lightning in series 1134, in the 2011 NHL Semifinals en route to the 2011 NHL championship.