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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

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Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
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QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
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Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
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BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
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All | Home Games | Road Games
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All | Home Games | Road Games
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QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
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2018 NHL Preliminary round - Series 1354.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Boston Bruins

Schedule and 2017-18 Results
Regular Season Records: Boston 50-20-12=112pts, Toronto 49-26-7=105pts
Game 1 on Thursday, 12 April: Toronto loses at Boston, 5-goals-1
Game 2 on Saturday, 14 April: Toronto loses at Boston, 7-goals-3
Game 3 on Monday, 16 April: Boston loses at Toronto, 4-goals-2
Game 4 on Thursday, 19 April: Boston wins at Toronto, 3-goals-1
Game 5 on Saturday, 21 April: Toronto wins at Boston, 4-goals-3
Game 6 on Monday, 23 April: Boston loses at Toronto, 3-goals-1
Game 7 on Wednesday, 25 April: Toronto at Boston

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Tied 3-games-all @ HHVVHV:
Ignoring win order; considering site order: The team tied 3-games-all with site order HHVVHV (Boston) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2017 MLB Finals:
Game 7 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 180-92 (.662)
Game 7 record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 54-34 (.614)
Game 7 record, NHL only, all rounds: 95-69 (.579)
Game 7 record, NHL only, Preliminary round: 37-28 (.569)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1352 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2017 MLB Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Tied WWLWLL:
Considering win order; ignoring site order: The team tied WWLWLL irrespective of site order (Boston) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2017 MLB Finals:
Game 7 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 13-10 (.565)
Game 7 record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 3-4 (.429)
Game 7 record, NHL only, all rounds: 5-5 (.500)
Game 7 record, NHL only, Preliminary round: 2-4 (.333)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1352 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2017 MLB Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Tied WWLWLL @ HHVVHV:
Considering win order; considering site order: The team tied WWLWLL with site order HHVVHV (Boston) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2017 MLB Finals:
Game 7 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 10-4 (.714)
Game 7 record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 3-2 (.600)
Game 7 record, NHL only, all rounds: 4-2 (.667)
Game 7 record, NHL only, Preliminary round: 2-2 (.500)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1352 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2017 MLB Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 6: The Toronto Maple Leafs hosted and defeated the Boston Bruins 3-goals-1 to tie best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1354 at 3-games-all. When tied 3-games-all in a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, the Boston Bruins have a Game 7 record of 13-12, while the Toronto Maple Leafs have a Game 7 record of 12-10. The Boston Bruins have a 12-8 Game 7 record in Boston. The Toronto Maple Leafs have a 5-9 Game 7 record on the road. The twelve Game 7 losses by the Boston Bruins (irrespective of site), the eight Game 7 losses by the Bruins at home, the 14 road Game 7 appearances by the Toronto Maple Leafs, and the nine Game 7 road losses by the Maple Leafs top their respective categories in best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff Game 7 history. Series 1354 Game 6 was the 269th best-of-7 NHL playoff game loss by the Boston Bruins, which is another best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff game record for one franchise entity. Irrespective of win/site order, home teams in NHL Game 7s have a 99-70 (.586) record overall, and a 37-29 (.561) record in best-of-7 NHL Preliminary-round series.

After Game 5: The Toronto Maple Leafs visited and defeated the Boston Bruins 4-goals-3 to reduce the Boston Bruins best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL series 1354 lead to 3-games-2. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Boston Bruins have a series record of 20-5 and a Game 6 record of 10-15 with an active five-Game 6 losing streak. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Toronto Maple Leafs have a series record of 6-16 with an active five-series losing streak and a Game 6 record of 11-11. The series 1354 Game 5 loss by the Boston Bruins is their 268th loss in best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff games, one more than the NHL Montreal Canadiens and NHL Detroit Red Wings (267 each) and thus the most best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff game losses ever.

After Game 4: The Boston Bruins visited and defeated the Toronto Maple Leafs 3-goals-1 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1354 lead of 3-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Boston Bruins have a series record of 18-2 and a Game 5 record of 11-9. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Toronto Maple Leafs have a series record of 1-14 with an active 13-series losing streak and a Game 5 record of 5-10. The first goal of series 1354 Game 4, by the visiting Boston Bruins 28 seconds into the first period, is the fastest goal since the start of a 2018 NHL playoff game thus far in the 2018 NHL playoff season. The sole best-of-7 NHL playoff series victory by the Toronto Maple Leafs in the wake of a 3-games-1 deficit occurred in series 42, in which Toronto defeated the Detroit Red Wings 4-games-3 to win the 1942 NHL Finals; Toronto had trailed that series 3-games-nil, and thus in series 42 completed the first-ever MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series comeback from a 3-games-nil deficit.

After Game 3: The Toronto Maple Leafs hosted and bested the Boston Bruins 4-goals-2 to reduce the Boston Bruins best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL series 1354 lead to 2-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Boston Bruins have a series record of 21-9 and a Game 4 record of 14-16. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Toronto Maple Leafs have a series record of 10-20 and a Game 4 record of 18-12. The series 1354 Game 3 loss is the 267th best-of-7 NHL playoff game loss by the Boston Bruins, tying them with the Montreal Canadiens and Detroit Red Wings for the most best-of-7 format MLB/NBA/NHL playoff game losses.

After Game 2: The Boston Bruins hosted and bested the Toronto Maple Leafs 7-goals-3 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1354 lead of 2-games-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Boston Bruins have a series record of 23-7 and a Game 3 record of 20-10 with an active five-Game 3 winning streak. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Toronto Maple Leafs have a series record of 4-16 and a Game 3 record of 8-12.

After Game 1: The Boston Bruins hosted and defeated the Toronto Maple Leafs 5-goals-1 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1354 lead of 1-game-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Boston Bruins have a series record of 34-15 and a Game 2 record of 30-19. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Toronto Maple Leafs have a series record of 16-27 and a Game 2 record of 23-20.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2017-18 NHL regular season, the Boston Bruins finished seven points ahead of the Toronto Maple Leafs. From 1939 through the 2017 NHL Finals round, when NHL teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by seven regular-season points, they have posted a best-of-7 playoff series record of 17-15 (.531) in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1354 is the 98th best-of-7 NHL playoff series for the Boston Bruins, and the 76th for the Toronto Maple Leafs. In best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Boston Bruins have an all-rounds series record of 48-49, a Preliminary-round series record of 12-11, and a Game 1 record of 49-48, while the Toronto Maple Leafs have an all-rounds series record of 35-40, a Preliminary-round series record of 8-7, and a Game 1 record of 32-43 with an active four-Game 1 losing streak. Series 1354 is the eleventh best-of-7 NHL playoff series meeting between the Boston Bruins and the Toronto Maple Leafs. Boston defeated Toronto in six of their previous ten best-of-7 NHL playoff series against each other, with an active four-series winning streak. The last Toronto victory over Boston in a best-of-7 NHL playoff series occurred in series 125, in the 1959 NHL Semifinals.