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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
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Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
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Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2018 NHL Preliminary round - Series 1353.
New Jersey Devils vs Tampa Bay Lightning

Schedule and 2017-18 Results
Regular Season Records: Tampa Bay 54-23-5=113pts, New Jersey 44-29-9=97pts
Game 1 on Thursday, 12 April: New Jersey loses at Tampa Bay, 5-goals-2
Game 2 on Saturday, 14 April: New Jersey loses at Tampa Bay, 5-goals-3
Game 3 on Monday, 16 April: Tampa Bay loses at New Jersey, 5-goals-2
Game 4 on Wednesday, 18 April: Tampa Bay wins at New Jersey, 3-goals-1
Game 5 on Saturday, 21 April: New Jersey loses at Tampa Bay, 3-goals-1

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 5: The Tampa Bay Lightning hosted and defeated the New Jersey Devils 3-goals-1 to complete a 4-games-1 best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1353 victory. With the series 1353 win, the Tampa Bay Lightning improve their best-of-7 NHL playoff series record to 13-8 overall and 6-4 in the Preliminary round. With the series 1353 loss, the New Jersey Devils see their best-of-7 NHL playoff series record fall to 25-19 overall and 10-12 in the Preliminary round. The win order for the victorious Tampa Bay Lightning in series 1353 was WWLWW: Series 1353 thus becomes the 17th NHL Preliminary-round series, the 47th NHL series (all rounds), and the 120th MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow that win order to completion.

After Game 4: The Tampa Bay Lightning visited and topped the New Jersey Devils 3-goals-1 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1353 lead of 3-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a series record of 4-0 and a Game 5 record of 3-1. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the New Jersey Devils have a series record of 1-9 with an active six-series losing streak and a Game 5 record of 3-7.

After Game 3: The New Jersey Devils hosted and defeated the Tampa Bay Lightning 5-goals-2 to drop the Tampa Bay Lightning best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL series 1353 lead to 2-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a series record of 5-3 and a Game 4 record of 3-5. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the New Jersey Devils have a series record of 5-12 and a Game 4 record of 10-7. New Jersey trailed series 1353 Game 3 by a goal as late as 4:02 into the third period. In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff series from 1939 through 2017, inclusive, home teams down a goal as late as 4:02 into the third period had a game record of 152-462 (.248).

After Game 2: The Tampa Bay Lightning hosted and bested the New Jersey Devils 5-goals-3 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1353 lead of 2-games-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a series record of 4-0 and a Game 3 record of 3-1. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the New Jersey Devils have a series record of 1-6 with an active five-series losing streak and a Game 3 record of 4-3.

After Game 1: The Tampa Bay Lightning hosted and defeated the New Jersey Devils 5-goals-2 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1353 lead of 1-game-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a series record of 6-2 and a Game 2 record of 4-4. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the New Jersey Devils have a series record of 10-13 and a Game 2 record of 16-7.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2017-18 NHL regular season, the Tampa Bay Lightning finished 16 points ahead of the New Jersey Devils. From 1939 through the 2017 NHL Finals round, when NHL teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by 16 regular-season points, they have posted a best-of-7 playoff series record of 11-4 (.733) in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1353 is the 21st best-of-7 NHL playoff series for the Tampa Bay Lightning, and the 44th for the New Jersey Devils. In best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Tampa Bay Lightning have an all-rounds series record of 12-8, a Preliminary-round series record of 5-4, and a Game 1 record of 8-12, while the New Jersey Devils have an all-rounds series record of 25-18, a Preliminary-round series record of 10-11, and a Game 1 record of 20-23. Series 1353 is the third best-of-7 NHL playoff series meeting between the Tampa Bay Lightning and the New Jersey Devils. New Jersey defeated Tampa Bay in both previous best-of-7 NHL playoff series between the two, in series 882 (in the 2003 NHL Quarterfinals) and in series 991 (in the 2007 NHL Preliminary round).