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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

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Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
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QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
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Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
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BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
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All | Home Games | Road Games
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All | Home Games | Road Games

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BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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2018 NBA Preliminary round - Series 1372.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs Houston Rockets

Schedule and 2017-18 Results
Regular Season Records: Houston 65-17, Minnesota 47-35
Game 1 on Sunday 15 April: Minnesota loses at Houston, 104-pts-101
Game 2 on Wednesday 18 April: Minnesota loses at Houston, 102-pts-82
Game 3 on Saturday 21 April: Houston loses at Minnesota, 121-pts-105
Game 4 on Monday 23 April: Houston wins at Minnesota, 119-pts-100
Game 5 on Wednesday 25 April: Minnesota at Houston
Game 6* on Friday 27 April: Houston at Minnesota
Game 7* on Sunday 29 April: Minnesota at Houston
* if needed

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading 3-games-1:
Ignoring win order; ignoring site order: The team leading 3-games-1 irrespective of site order (Houston) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2017 MLB Finals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 565-52 (.916)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 144-21 (.873)
series record, NBA only, all rounds: 226-11 (.954)
series record, NBA only, Preliminary round: 53-2 (.964)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 347-270 (.562)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 83-82 (.503)
Game 5 record, NBA only, all rounds: 139-98 (.586)
Game 5 record, NBA only, Preliminary round: 31-24 (.564)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1352 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2017 MLB Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading 3-games-1 @ HHVV:
Ignoring win order; considering site order: The team leading 3-games-1 with site order HHVV (Houston) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2017 MLB Finals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 356-24 (.937)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 95-10 (.905)
series record, NBA only, all rounds: 147-2 (.987)
series record, NBA only, Preliminary round: 36-0 (1.000)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 252-128 (.663)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 67-38 (.638)
Game 5 record, NBA only, all rounds: 110-39 (.738)
Game 5 record, NBA only, Preliminary round: 29-7 (.806)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1352 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2017 MLB Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading WWLW:
Considering win order; ignoring site order: The team leading WWLW irrespective of site order (Houston) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2017 MLB Finals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 175-10 (.946)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 47-4 (.922)
series record, NBA only, all rounds: 83-2 (.976)
series record, NBA only, Preliminary round: 22-0 (1.000)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 118-67 (.638)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 32-19 (.627)
Game 5 record, NBA only, all rounds: 58-27 (.682)
Game 5 record, NBA only, Preliminary round: 17-5 (.773)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1352 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2017 MLB Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading WWLW @ HHVV:
Considering win order; considering site order: The team leading WWLW with site order HHVV (Houston) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2017 MLB Finals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 140-6 (.959)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 37-2 (.949)
series record, NBA only, all rounds: 71-2 (.973)
series record, NBA only, Preliminary round: 19-0 (1.000)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 100-46 (.685)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 28-11 (.718)
Game 5 record, NBA only, all rounds: 52-21 (.712)
Game 5 record, NBA only, Preliminary round: 16-3 (.842)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1352 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2017 MLB Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 4: The Houston Rockets visited and bested the Minnesota Timberwolves 119-pts-100 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1372 lead of 3-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Houston Rockets have a series record of 7-0 and a Game 5 record of 5-2. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Minnesota Timberwolves have a series record of 0-1 and a Game 5 record of 1-0. The 50-point third quarter by the Houston Rockets in series 1372 Game 4 breaks the best-of-7 NBA playoff game record for most third-quarter points by one team, previously held by the Los Angeles Lakers in series 494 Game 1 (49 points, against the Golden State Warriors in Los Angeles, in the 1987 NBA Quarterfinals). The 50-point third quarter by the Houston Rockets in series 1372 Game 4 fell one point shy of the most points by one team in any best-of-7 NBA playoff game quarter, set by the Los Angeles Lakers in series 149 Game 5 (51 fourth-quarter points, against the Detroit Pistons in Los Angeles, in the 1962 NBA Semifinals).

After Game 3: The Minnesota Timberwolves hosted and defeated the Houston Rockets 121-pts-105 to drop the Houston Rockets best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL series 1372 lead to 2-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Houston Rockets have a series record of 10-2 and a Game 4 record of 6-6. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Minnesota Timberwolves have a series record of 0-1 and a Game 4 record of 0-1.

After Game 2: The Houston Rockets hosted and defeated the Minnesota Timberwolves 102-pts-82 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1372 lead of 2-games-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Houston Rockets have a series record of 6-2 and a Game 3 record of 2-6. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Minnesota Timberwolves have a series record of 0-0 and a Game 3 record of 0-0; Minnesota faces a two-games-nil best-of-7 NBA playoff series deficit for the first time. The series 1372 Game 2 loss by the Minnesota Timberwolves ruins their previously perfect 4-0 best-of-7 NBA playoff Game 2 record, leaving the old NBA Syracuse Nationals alone atop the best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff Game 2 table with their forever-perfect 5-0 Game 2 record.

After Game 1: The Houston Rockets hosted and bested the Minnesota Timberwolves 104-pts-101 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1372 lead of 1-game-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Houston Rockets have a series record of 11-4 and a Game 2 record of 8-7. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Minnesota Timberwolves have a series record of 1-2 and a Game 2 record of 3-0.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2017-18 NBA regular season, the Houston Rockets finished 18 games ahead of the Minnesota Timberwolves. From 1947 through the 2017 NBA Finals round, when NBA teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by 18 regular-season games, they have posted a best-of-7 playoff series record of 7-0 (1.000) in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1372 is the 36th best-of-7 NBA playoff series for the Houston Rockets, and the fifth for the Minnesota Timberwolves. In best-of-7 NBA playoff series, the Houston Rockets have an all-rounds series record of 16-19, a Preliminary-round series record of 3-7, and a Game 1 record of 15-20, while the Minnesota Timberwolves have an all-rounds series record of 2-2, a Preliminary-round series record of 1-1, and a Game 1 record of 1-3. Series 1372 is the first best-of-7 NBA playoff series meeting between the Houston Rockets and the Minnesota Timberwolves.