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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

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Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
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QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
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Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
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BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
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All | Home Games | Road Games
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All | Home Games | Road Games
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All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
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BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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2018 NBA Preliminary round - Series 1368.
Washington Wizards vs Toronto Raptors

Schedule and 2017-18 Results
Regular Season Records: Toronto 59-23, Washington 43-39
Game 1 on Saturday 14 April: Washington loses at Toronto, 114-pts-106
Game 2 on Tuesday 17 April: Washington loses at Toronto, 130-pts-119
Game 3 on Friday 20 April: Toronto loses at Washington, 122-pts-103
Game 4 on Sunday 22 April: Toronto loses at Washington, 106-pts-98
Game 5 on Wednesday 25 April: Washington at Toronto
Game 6 on Friday 27 April: Toronto at Washington
Game 7* on Sunday 29 April: Washington at Toronto
* if needed

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Tied 2-games-all @ HHVV:
Ignoring win order; considering site order: The team tied 2-games-all with site order HHVV (Toronto) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2017 MLB Finals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 324-163 (.665)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 91-49 (.650)
series record, NBA only, all rounds: 141-38 (.788)
series record, NBA only, Preliminary round: 32-8 (.800)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 311-176 (.639)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 90-50 (.643)
Game 5 record, NBA only, all rounds: 131-48 (.732)
Game 5 record, NBA only, Preliminary round: 29-11 (.725)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1352 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2017 MLB Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Tied WWLL:
Considering win order; ignoring site order: The team tied WWLL irrespective of site order (Toronto) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2017 MLB Finals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 132-66 (.667)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 32-21 (.604)
series record, NBA only, all rounds: 63-17 (.788)
series record, NBA only, Preliminary round: 13-6 (.684)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 122-76 (.616)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 30-23 (.566)
Game 5 record, NBA only, all rounds: 57-23 (.713)
Game 5 record, NBA only, Preliminary round: 12-7 (.632)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1352 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2017 MLB Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Tied WWLL @ HHVV:
Considering win order; considering site order: The team tied WWLL with site order HHVV (Toronto) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2017 MLB Finals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 119-45 (.726)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 29-12 (.707)
series record, NBA only, all rounds: 60-13 (.822)
series record, NBA only, Preliminary round: 13-4 (.765)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 113-51 (.689)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 29-12 (.707)
Game 5 record, NBA only, all rounds: 54-19 (.740)
Game 5 record, NBA only, Preliminary round: 12-5 (.706)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1352 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2017 MLB Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 4: The Washington Wizards hosted and topped the Toronto Raptors 106-pts-98 to knot best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1368 at 2-games-all. When tied 2-games-all in a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, the Toronto Raptors have a series record of 3-3 and a Game 5 record of 4-2, while the Washington Wizards have a series record of 2-3 and a Game 5 record of 2-3. In all five best-of-7 NBA playoff series in which the Washington Wizards were tied 2-games-all after four games, the Washington Game 5 outcome presaged the Washington series outcome (two wins; three losses). Washington trailed the visiting Toronto Raptors by eleven points at halftime of series 1368 Game 4: In the history of best-of-7 NBA playoff games since 1947, inclusive, home teams down eleven points at halftime had a game record of 10-27 (.270).

After Game 3: The Washington Wizards hosted and bested the Toronto Raptors 122-pts-103 to reduce the Toronto Raptors best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL series 1368 lead to 2-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Toronto Raptors have a series record of 2-1 and a Game 4 record of 0-3. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Washington Wizards have a series record of 1-4 with an active four-series losing streak and a Game 4 record of 3-2.

After Game 2: The Toronto Raptors hosted and defeated the Washington Wizards 130-pts-119 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1368 lead of 2-games-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Toronto Raptors have a series record of 0-0 and a Game 3 record of 0-0 (i.e., series 1368 is the first best-of-7 NBA playoff series which the Toronto Raptors have led 2-games-nil). When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Washington Wizards have a series record of 1-4 with an active four-series losing streak and a Game 3 record of 3-2. The 44 points scored by the Toronto Raptors in the first quarter of series 1368 Game 2 tie for the third-most first-quarter points ever in a best-of-7 NBA playoff game.

After Game 1: The Toronto Raptors hosted and defeated the Washington Wizards 114-pts-106 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1368 lead of 1-game-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Toronto Raptors have a series record of 0-1 and a Game 2 record of 0-1. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Washington Wizards have a series record of 1-5 with an active five-series losing streak and a Game 2 record of 1-5. With their series 1368 Game 1 win, the Toronto Raptors snap a nine-Game 1 losing streak in best-of-7 NBA playoff series. Only once before had Toronto led a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 1-game-nil: Series 838, which the Raptors lost to the Philadelphia 76ers in seven games in the 2001 NBA Quarterfinals.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2017-18 NBA regular season, the Toronto Raptors finished 16 games ahead of the Washington Wizards. From 1947 through the 2017 NBA Finals round, when NBA teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by 16 regular-season games, they have posted a best-of-7 playoff series record of 10-2 (.833) in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1368 is the eleventh best-of-7 NBA playoff series for the Toronto Raptors, and the 12th for the Washington Wizards. In best-of-7 NBA playoff series, the Toronto Raptors have an all-rounds series record of 3-7, a Preliminary-round series record of 2-4, and a Game 1 record of 1-9 with an active nine-Game 1 losing streak, while the Washington Wizards have an all-rounds series record of 4-7, a Preliminary-round series record of 4-3, and a Game 1 record of 5-6. Series 1368 is the second best-of-7 NBA playoff series meeting between the Toronto Raptors and the Washington Wizards. Washington defeated Toronto in their only previous best-of-7 NBA playoff series meeting, via a four-game sweep in the 2015 NBA Preliminary round..