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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

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Irrespective of Game 1 site
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Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
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Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
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2018 MLB Semifinals round - Series 1384.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Houston Astros

Schedule and 2018 Results
Regular Season Records: Milwaukee 96-67, Los Angeles Dodgers 92-71
Game 1 on Friday, 12 October: Los Angeles Dodgers lose at Milwaukee, 6-runs-5
Game 2 on Saturday, 13 October: Los Angeles Dodgers win at Milwaukee, 4-runs-3
Game 3 on Monday, 15 October: Milwaukee wins at Los Angeles Dodgers, 4-runs-nil
Game 4 on Tuesday, 16 October: Milwaukee loses at Los Angeles Dodgers, 2-runs-1 (13 innings)
Game 5 on Wednesday, 17 October: Milwaukee loses at Los Angeles Dodgers, 5-runs-2
Game 6 on Friday, 19 October: Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee
Game 7* on Saturday, 20 October: Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee
* if needed

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading 3-games-2:
Ignoring win order; ignoring site order: The team leading 3-games-2 irrespective of site order (L.A. Dodgers) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2018 NHL and NBA Finals rounds:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 636-161 (.798)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Semifinals round: 155-44 (.779)
series record, MLB only, all rounds: 71-31 (.696)
series record, MLB only, Semifinals round: 28-11 (.718)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 438-359 (.550)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, Semifinals round: 112-87 (.563)
Game 6 record, MLB only, all rounds: 47-55 (.461)
Game 6 record, MLB only, Semifinals round: 23-16 (.590)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1382 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2018 NHL and NBA Finals rounds. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading 3-games-2 @ VVHHH:
Ignoring win order; considering site order: The team leading 3-games-2 with site order VVHHH (L.A. Dodgers) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2018 NHL and NBA Finals rounds:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 37-26 (.587)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Semifinals round: 12-7 (.632)
series record, MLB only, all rounds: 29-20 (.592)
series record, MLB only, Semifinals round: 11-7 (.611)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 24-39 (.381)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, Semifinals round: 11-8 (.579)
Game 6 record, MLB only, all rounds: 17-32 (.347)
Game 6 record, MLB only, Semifinals round: 10-8 (.556)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1382 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2018 NHL and NBA Finals rounds. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading LWLWW:
Considering win order; ignoring site order: The team leading LWLWW irrespective of site order (L.A. Dodgers) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2018 NHL and NBA Finals rounds:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 60-18 (.769)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Semifinals round: 14-5 (.737)
series record, MLB only, all rounds: 7-4 (.636)
series record, MLB only, Semifinals round: 2-1 (.667)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 36-42 (.462)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, Semifinals round: 7-12 (.368)
Game 6 record, MLB only, all rounds: 4-7 (.364)
Game 6 record, MLB only, Semifinals round: 1-2 (.333)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1382 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2018 NHL and NBA Finals rounds. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading LWLWW @ VVHHH:
Considering win order; considering site order: The team leading LWLWW with site order VVHHH (L.A. Dodgers) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2018 NHL and NBA Finals rounds:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 3-5 (.375)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Semifinals round: 1-1 (.500)
series record, MLB only, all rounds: 2-3 (.400)
series record, MLB only, Semifinals round: 1-1 (.500)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 2-6 (.250)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, Semifinals round: 1-1 (.500)
Game 6 record, MLB only, all rounds: 1-4 (.200)
Game 6 record, MLB only, Semifinals round: 1-1 (.500)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1382 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2018 NHL and NBA Finals rounds. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 5: The Los Angeles Dodgers hosted and bested the Milwaukee Brewers 5-runs-2 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1384 lead of 3-games-2. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Los Angeles Dodgers have a series record of 4-0 and a Game 6 record of 2-2. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Milwaukee Brewers have a series record of 0-1 and a Game 6 record of 0-1. The last MLB/NBA/NHL team to trail a best-of-7 playoff series WLWLL @ HHVVV (as the Milwaukee Brewers do after series 1384 Game 5) but win the series was the MLB St. Louis Cardinals in series 1154, in the 2011 MLB Finals against the Texas Rangers. So it is that Milwaukee finds a favorable paradigm from the team which defeated Milwaukee in Milwaukee's only two previous best-of-7 MLB playoff series.

After Game 4: The Los Angeles Dodgers hosted and defeated the Milwaukee Brewers 2-runs-1 in 13 innings to tie best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1384 at 2-games-all. When tied 2-games-all in a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, the Milwaukee Brewers have a series record of 0-2 and a Game 5 record of 1-1, while the Los Angeles Dodgers have a series record of 3-4 and a Game 5 record of 3-4. Series 1384 Game 4 at 13 innings was the longest (innings-wise) best-of-7 MLB Semifinals game since series 1219 Game 1, in which the St. Louis Cardinals hosted and defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers 3-runs-2 in 13 innings of their opening 2013 National League Championship Series game. Tied 2-games-all in a best-of-7 MLB playoff series (as the Los Angeles Dodgers are after four games of series 1384), the Dodgers have a 3-4 series record and a 3-4 Game 5 record: In all seven instances of such, the Game 5 outcome determined the series outcome for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Series 1384 Game 4 is the 1000th best-of-7 format MLB playoff game.

After Game 3: The Milwaukee Brewers visited and shut out the Los Angeles Dodgers 4-runs-nil to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1384 lead of 2-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Milwaukee Brewers have a series record of 0-0 and a Game 4 record of 0-0. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Los Angeles Dodgers have a series record of 3-6 (with an active four-series losing streak) and a Game 4 record of 4-5. The Milwaukee Brewers have become the third MLB team in a best-of-7 MLB playoff series to win Game 1 by one run, lose Game 2 by one run, and win Game 3 by four runs. The previous two MLB teams to do so were the old St. Louis Browns in the 1944 MLB Finals (series 51), and the Baltimore Orioles in the 1979 MLB Finals (series 366); both the 1944 Browns and the 1979 Orioles lost their respective series. Series 1384 Game 3 is the first best-of-7 MLB playoff Game 3 ever won by the Milwaukee Brewers.

After Game 2: The Los Angeles Dodgers visited and defeated the Milwaukee Brewers 4-runs-3 to tie best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1384 at 1-game-all. When tied 1-game-all in a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, the Milwaukee Brewers have a series record of 0-2 and a Game 3 record of 0-2, while the Los Angeles Dodgers have a series record of 2-5 and a Game 3 record of 2-5. With the series 1384 Game 2 loss, the Milwaukee Brewers now own a 0-3 best-of-7 MLB playoff Game 2 record to complement their 3-0 best-of-7 MLB playoff Game 1 record. The Los Angeles Dodgers trailed series 1384 Game 2 by three runs as late as after six full innings on the road, but won the game: In the history of the 993 best-of-7 MLB playoff games from 1905 through 2017, inclusive, road teams down three runs after six full innings had a game record of only 6-70 (.079).

After Game 1: The Milwaukee Brewers hosted and defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers 6-runs-5 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1384 lead of 1-game-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Milwaukee Brewers have a series record of 0-2 and a Game 2 record of 0-2. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Los Angeles Dodgers have a series record of 4-7 (with an active four-series losing streak) and a Game 2 record of 6-5. With the series 1384 Game 1 victory, the Milwaukee Brewers improve their best-of-7 MLB playoff Game 1 record to 3-0. Series 1384 Game 1 becomes the highest-scoring one-run-margin MLB best-of-7 playoff Game 1 since 2010, when the New York Yankees visited and defeated the Texas Rangers 6-runs-5 in series 1119 Game 1 in the American League Championship Series of that year.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2018 MLB regular season, the Milwaukee Brewers finished four games ahead of the Los Angeles Dodgers. From 1905 through the 2017 MLB Finals round, when MLB teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by four regular-season games, they have posted a best-of-7 playoff series record of 7-4 (.636) in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1384 is the third best-of-7 MLB playoff series for the Milwaukee Brewers, and the 18th for the Los Angeles Dodgers. In best-of-7 MLB playoff series, the Milwaukee Brewers have an all-rounds series record of 0-2, a Semifinals-round series record of 0-1, and a Game 1 record of 2-0, while the Los Angeles Dodgers have an all-rounds series record of 7-10, a Semifinals-round series record of 2-5, and a Game 1 record of 6-11. Series 1384 is the first best-of-7 MLB playoff series meeting between the Milwaukee Brewers and the Los Angeles Dodgers.